Airlines In The Philippines II

[seven13]

I checked wikipedia (not the best source), France has the highest Filipino number in Europe followed by Spain and then Italy. Should PR launch a European destination, there’s a high probability it would be one of these three countries. So it would be a toss between CDG/FCO/MXP/MAD/BCN. Next question would be landing slots. The last time this was discussed, slot pairing of early morning arrival-early lunch departure are already full, well that’s for AMS and CDG if I remember correctly.

[Arianespace]

You are indeed geeks. Thank you for all your thoughts.

FCO and FRA hub with connections to AMS, CDG on fifth freedom. MXP was floated for connection with MAD but would affect traffic from FCO. So most likely still coming from FCO instead of MXP, if considered. It wasn't possible in 2012. One reason for denial is our blacklist status. Remember that?

In 2016, negotiations for these rights were made at the ASEAN level and agreed in 2021. It was just signed now as it was made after ASEAN meeting last year. We only have about 9 ASA before in EU, including Switzerland. PAL used to fly ZRH and ATH in Greece. Sadly, I don't see these legacy routes considered on this plan. Maybe in the future we would find them again.

With this regional ASA, we only have 1 now. Airlines will just need to contend with slot allocations. Question now would be where to fly?

Based on 2018 travel statistics, next to LHR, FRA has the most Foreign and Filipino pax to PH, followed by FCO, CDG and AMS in that particular order. MXP AFAIK is 5 or 6. Meanwhile, BRU is not even in the top 10, but PAL is considering this route in exchange for the nod. Politics, so to speak.

Topping list of foreigners from Europe going to PH in 2021 is Turkey. But that is not in the EU. Which also explains the double daily flight of TK. Followed by UK, DE, FR, and IT. Traffic is there but not big enough to justify flights regularly, without hopping. Now, its possible.

4 EU airports is prepared by PAL for this eventuality. Even if they are not yet talking. Because they don't have planes yet. It will come soon.

If you could remember, RSA took 6 A340s for the EU. Yes, the Iberia kind. In the end he was able to use only 1, to LHR.

[XWB_flyer]

Forgot about FCO which probably makes more sense then MXP I agreed FRA would be the 2nd destination for PAL to launch although in the near term re-opening LHR is the priority in the short term before adding either FCO or FRA.

As for aircraft I personally think the A350-900 is best suited aircraft for FRA while FCO could be potentially served by the sucessor of the A330-300 with a stop at TLV?

[Arianespace]

While TLV is in the ME, for political reason its part of Europe but not in the EU. The ASEAN-EU Air Treaty however covers only EU countries. Therefore it cannot do EU from TLV. What it can do is basically this explanation from Eurest at page 32.

Eurest wrote

If the ASEAN side is the same as the EU side,
Philippine carriers can fly up to 7x weekly passenger services beyond or via any 3rd country to EU member states with 5th freedom rights.
It increases to 14x weekly after 2 years.
If it's via a 3rd country like your example, that 3rd country should grant 5th freedom rights as well.
The EU example was PRG-SIN-MNL
So for the Philippines, something like MNL/CRK/CEB-LCA-ORY

Passenger services from ASEAN to EU or vice versa that only carry 3rd & 4th freedom rights are not limited aside from airport slot restrictions

The agreement still needs ratification on the EU side, not sure w/ ASEAN member states.

For a clearer understanding, take this explanation from the EU linked here

In addition, the agreement foresees up to 14 weekly passenger flights to or from each EU Member State, operated with fifth freedom rights for passenger services, for example the option to fly from Prague to Singapore and then to Manila. The first seven frequencies will be available immediately, and the other seven frequencies two years after entry into force of the agreement, and only on routes not operated by airlines of the other party. For air cargo, EU and ASEAN airlines will be immediately entitled to operate unlimited fifth freedom traffic rights.

With this explanation, PAL can similarly fly FCO and then to AMS while another route to FRA and CDG as early as next year on 4x3 flight frequency, assuming they utilize first seven. Which I think they would. They have been dreaming about these rights for 10 years and now its open for them.

We have discussed previously BKK as hubs for the A333 if it were to fly EU. But the 242t variant of the A339 can basically cover EU routes without penalty. With the 235t variant PAL had, it has already proven that it can fly more than 5,200nm to LAX from ICN. What more with the heavier and newer version. FRA is just 300nm away while FCO is 400nm farther, roughly equivalent to additional hour. Doable even by its current fleet , with penalty of course. But you get the point.

[XWB_flyer]

Arianespace wrote

With this explanation, PAL can similarly fly FCO and then to AMS while another route to FRA and CDG as early as next year on 4x3 flight frequency, assuming they utilize first seven. Which I think they would. They have been dreaming about these rights for 10 years and now its open for them.

We have discussed previously BKK as hubs for the A333 if it were to fly EU. But the 242t variant of the A339 can basically cover EU routes without penalty. With the 235t variant PAL had, it has already proven that it can fly more than 5,200nm to LAX from ICN. What more with the heavier and newer version. FRA is just 300nm away while FCO is 400nm farther, roughly equivalent to additional hour. Doable even by its current fleet , with penalty of course. But you get the point.

Intresting I wonder if this could be tied to potential deal between AB and RR who are pitching the A330-900neo? Since both the 242t or 257t have the range to fly all the way to europe i'd imagine the configuration will between 275-290 in a three-class configuration with additional equipment such as crew rest for both flight crew and flight attendent. While a second or even third configuration in a two-class configuration with 300-350 seats with the later being used for ME and High-capacity regional or domestic route.

Speaking of large order United recently ordered 100 Dreamliner with option for 100 more I wonder if that will have an affect in PAL A330-300 replacement?

[XWB_flyer]

With less then 2 days to New Year I'm curious what to expect in 2023? Could we see PAL resume more domestic flights or added new routes? And with strong revenue this year will they continue to sustain i through 2023? And what Cebu Pacific and Philippine Air Asia the former seem to be continuing its order book despite losses and PAA will they finally recived new aircraft such as the A321neo?

[frequentflier]

I wonder how the disruption will affect flights scheduled for tomorrow and the following days

[chowpau]

Something Fishy why primary and secondary were down all together like in Tagaytay and PSR

[Arianespace]

There really was a fish inside. An engineer I talked to points to two possible culprit, computer 'glitch' or computer hacked, of which the latter they don't want to say in public.

And it has nothing to do with a blower as some officials say it was, nor has it something to do with Tugade as 'Bilyonaryo' claimed allegedly. While I admire that they are right sometimes, this time they got it all wrong.

Truth is, CNS ATM are centralized by nature. They just have different terminal across the country. So when computer server goes 'whack', everything goes haywire. Meaning, blackout.

As for back-up, there is no back up for a 10B peso project. The old radar was reactivated to restore normalcy while new one was fixed. That is the real backup. There was no appropriation for ATM backup. We simply can't afford it.

It took the Philippines 20 years to make this project a reality, with help from JICA. And even with the help, we still can't afford counterpart funding. It was made a reality mainly because of Duterte and Tugade by extension.

But of course you will be reading differently on the prints, and some news outlets. But I stick to this story.

[Arianespace]

By the way, if you want to know who makes our radar, its the French company called THALES. The same radar provider for Airbus and Boeing planes and for some of the Philippine Navy ships.

What makes it expensive is the proprietary software and hardware. Not the radar that you find in airports. If it was just Flightradar24 or Airnav, it wouldn't cost a penny. But that is making things simple, so they are making things difficult by introducing encryption so that you will need decoding and translation. Perfect. Makes a good business case.

And while at it, here is what it looks like generally, and Digong taking a closer look

[XWB_flyer]

I wonder if the system was hacked by a another foreign country the timing is also intresting as the president is currently visiting china not really into conspiracy theory but it those make wonder about the security of our ATC system agains potential aggressors?

[Arianespace]

The possibility is real, apparently. Just as I told you it will. Despite official denial by the agency,

“The does not appear to be a cybercrime because affected electrical equipment cannot be manipulated from outside CAAP compound,” the statement read.
https://mb.com.ph/2023/01/04/caap-rules-out-cyber-attack-on-naia-technical-glitch-reiterates-need-for-upgrade/

Naturally, they forgot the equipment that was inside look like this,


If you think Its a joke, take a closer and attentive look if I don't know what I'm talking about, could be a mistake.




Few also confirmed that after the blackout, the national security cluster of this government was constituted in closed doors. Discussions were classified. You don't do that unless there was serious security breach. Strangely, the photo ops prior to meeting was taken down.

[JNC03]

My theory is right all along, when I woke up my co avgeek friends realized that some flights is diverting.

And afterward, it is confirmed the airspace is down, the first cause I think is a cyberattack, considering our country has weak cybersecurity.

I am a current IT student, avgeek and aviation news writer and this is the first time I saw this event.


I also membered the flying spy blimp last month🤔

[Arianespace]

Senator Joseph Victor ”JV” Ejercito on Thursday, January 5 expressed his disappointment at the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines’ (CAAP) failure to back up the air traffic management system (ATMS) of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) despite being granted sufficient funding by Congress.

CAAP is now under fire after a glitch with the NAIA’s ATMS disrupted more than 3,000 inbound and outbound flights throughout the country and affected around 65,000 international and domestic passengers, exactly on New Year’s Day, January 1.

According to Ejercito, he and other senators had worked hard to defend the budget of the CAAP, the Department of Transportation (DOTr), and other concerned agencies during the past two administrations.

“All of the things they have asked for – government support, subsidy, airport upgrades, equipment, navigational tools and everything, lalo na yung mga (especially the) night flying capability of other airports – we already gave them. That’s why a lot of airports were already upgraded,” Ejercito said in a televised interview.
https://mb.com.ph/2023/01/05/we-gave-them-what-they-wanted-jv-ejercito-slams-caaps-failure-to-back-up-naias-air-traffic-system/

Too late the hero, I guess. In truth, the senate sat on the CNS-ATM project for 20 years due to it inability to raised funds for its procurement. They never funded the project. 10 billion pesos of it. Now, they are demanding a back-up. Well, good luck to that!

And contrary to popular belief, the system installed isn't old. If not for Tugade prodding and for a President whose coming in Mindanao and for his close association with a Japanese leader who went personally to his house, it wouldn't had happen.

I was in high school when Laguindingan was conceptualized, and it took them 30 years to make that possible, and even now isn't even complete. Wiki doesn't even mentioned the fact that it was born in 1987. CNS-ATM was a 1997 project.  Maybe because those who knew are already dead or in their twilight years.
 
So you see, in the political grandstanding of things, the real story is left out. That is where this forum comes in. To tell the inside story.

[romantic_guy08]

Arianespace wrote

Senator Joseph Victor ”JV” Ejercito on Thursday, January 5 expressed his disappointment at the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines’ (CAAP) failure to back up the air traffic management system (ATMS) of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) despite being granted sufficient funding by Congress.

CAAP is now under fire after a glitch with the NAIA’s ATMS disrupted more than 3,000 inbound and outbound flights throughout the country and affected around 65,000 international and domestic passengers, exactly on New Year’s Day, January 1.

According to Ejercito, he and other senators had worked hard to defend the budget of the CAAP, the Department of Transportation (DOTr), and other concerned agencies during the past two administrations.

“All of the things they have asked for – government support, subsidy, airport upgrades, equipment, navigational tools and everything, lalo na yung mga (especially the) night flying capability of other airports – we already gave them. That’s why a lot of airports were already upgraded,” Ejercito said in a televised interview.
https://mb.com.ph/2023/01/05/we-gave-them-what-they-wanted-jv-ejercito-slams-caaps-failure-to-back-up-naias-air-traffic-system/

Too late the hero, I guess. In truth, the senate sat on the CNS-ATM project for 20 years due to it inability to raised funds for its procurement. They never funded the project. 10 billion pesos of it. Now, they are demanding a back-up. Well, good luck to that!

And contrary to popular belief, the system installed isn't old. If not for Tugade prodding and for a President whose coming in Mindanao and for his close association with a Japanese leader who went personally to his house, it wouldn't had happen.

I was in high school when Laguindingan was conceptualized, and it took them 30 years to make that possible, and even now isn't even complete. Wiki doesn't even mentioned the fact that it was born in 1987. CNS-ATM was a 1997 project.  Maybe because those who knew are already dead or in their twilight years.
 
So you see, in the political grandstanding of things, the real story is left out. That is where this forum comes in. To tell the inside story.

Will this incident prod CAAP/gov't to decentralize? and have another station in Cebu or Davao similar to the old system where Mactan had control of the radar in Cebu?

[Arianespace]

Em, Mactan doesn't have control of the radar in Cebu, Manila does. What Mactan has are controllers for Majic center, and they are dependent on feeds from Tagaytay which relay it to Manila Center. Somewhat a repeater system, but not a redundancy. When Tagaytay goes off, the the FIR goes blank, but not the other way around. So you see, even the old ATO system is centralized.



The thing is, like its predecessor, the weakness of Air Traffic Management (ATM) system is its centralized nature for reason of national security, as was stated by CAAP. You can make a back-up system in Cebu but control of it will still be at ATM Center in Pasay. Which lead us back to my earlier statement, when its kaput its blackout. A redundant CNS system would not make a repeat, but we must prepare to pay 5 billion pesos more. With burgeoning budget deficit, I don't know how our honorable senators can fund that luxury. In the future, perhaps.

For discussion purposes, try to watch this film made in 1990 and limit your thoughts to the ATC side of things. Computer hack is real, and not just some feeble fantasy. Great film though.

 

By the way, ATM Center in Pasay has 3 power system back-up. But I guess CAAP never bothered to tell us that fact.

[Arianespace]

This put a smile on my face,

Flight departures halted across the United States due to FAA system outage

New York (CNN) — The Federal Aviation Administration halted all domestic flight departures across the United States Wednesday after the system providing pilots with pre-flight safety notices went offline.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/faa-computer-outage-flights-grounded/index.html

Cover up pa more CAAP...

[Arianespace]

I love how the CAA argues at the Senate, but then Sen. Hontiveros can't figure out the answer,

Still unclear why air traffic system went down but cybercrime center not ruling out cyberattack

Pressed by senators on what caused the circuit breaker to fail, transportation officials were only able to say that they are still waiting for the forensic findings of the Cybercrime Investigation and Coordination Center

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/01/12/2237191/still-unclear-why-air-traffic-system-went-down-cybercrime-center-not-ruling-out-cyberattack

For heavens sake, they just spilled it out.

It would be over if they just say that CNS can be remotely turned off from somewhere else around the globe, like windows computer.



As it is now all in the open, The Undersecretary of DICT tells a different story that is told by CAAP. The story of Usec. Alexander Ramos happens to be the same as yours truly. Same close door sessions with the senators. Again, classified information. What a coincidence that makes...

As you can see, the news story is way ahead on this forum. As I told you so.

[Arianespace]

Sa mga taong mahirap paniwalain, another coincidence happened almost simultaneous with the US, this time in Canada. How convenient.

In a follow-up tweet, the company said it was investigating the cause of the disruption. “At this time, we do not believe it to be related to the FAA outage experienced earlier today,” it tweeted.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2023/01/12/canadas-air-alert-system-conspiracy/?sh=3118b4673974

Bakit kasi ipilit pa yang circuit breaker

[frequentflier]

Do you think MNL was just a sample, and they’re now attacking bigger countries?