Airlines In The Philippines II

[Arianespace]

This is volume II. It has been a long journey making this thread together and we have come this far exchanging fair ideas. From May 21, 2019 onwards I hope we can continue relevant discussions about Airlines in the Philippines.

To start the salvo, PAL retained their 4 star rating from Skytrak.

There is also a fair review of the A321neo Business Class. Some of us here wanted to look how it feels like for a long time.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/philippine-airlines-airbus-a321neo-business-class-review-brisbane-manila-bne-mnl

PAL is changing planes again to Sydney due to range issues associated with cargoes on board.

GAP got another A320 and another two are coming from PAL to supplement fleet for China-bound flights out of Clark, Cebu and Kalibo as mainline begins transition to all A321 by 2021.

And CEB got slapped on the wrist for their massive flight cancellations. CAB in their decision said that the airline rebook affected passengers free of charge. It does not say however about the plight of number of passengers who must travel on days not flown. A number of lawsuits are being prepared as we speak.

Royal Air makes inaugural flights in Davao and Cebu. I don't know how the A319 will fit in the mix as I would rather have more BAe146 for commonality, progressing to the e-jets in the future. At least they are making full use of the BAe before its gone, or until the avgas prices start to climb again.

[XWB_flyer]

PAL is returning the A330-300 to SYD  2019 replacing the A321neo, effective  from Aug 1, 2019.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/284434/philippine-airlines-sydney-aircraft-changes-from-august-2019/

Frequency will be increased to 7 times weekly from Dec 4 to Jan 31, 2020.

Additional service changes possible will be updated.

[Solblanc]

If frequency is reduced for SYD, that might mean that they don’t need to haul as many connections to London. Is London improving on its own?

[Arianespace]

According to PAL sources, J booking to LHR has been good this summer. Some upgrades were declined because its full already.

[XWB_flyer]

Reuters, which has been accurate with there news articles. Reported that Cebu Pacific will make an order for a new Wide-body aircraft during the  upcoming Paris Air Show.

"Cebu Air Inc is close to an order for either Airbus 330neo or Boeing 787 aircraft, the CEO of the Philippines’ largest airline said on Thursday. The carrier, which operates under the Cebu Pacific brand, is looking for deliveries in 2020 and 2021"

How many aircraft will 5J orders hasn't been revealed. But its previously mentioned to be 16 aircraft, it also mention that which aircraft type will they choose will replace the current fleet of 8 A330 which are all leased.

Cebu Air is considering an order for up to 16 aircraft, aviation website Flightglobal has reported. The new widebody jets will replace the existing A330 fleet, most of which are leased, Gokongwei said."

Original news articles:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cebuair-orders/philippines-cebu-air-close-to-buying-a330neo-or-b787-aircraft-idUSKCN1T015G

[Arianespace]

This is what Reuters probably missed.

[Arianespace]

From the agenda, PAL Holdings is increasing its authorized capital stock from the current P13.5 billion to P20 billion ($130 million) to support the ongoing network and fleet expansion initiatives of Philippine Airlines (PAL).

Decision was made at the annual stockholders meeting held in Century Park Hotel, Manila on May 30, 2019. There were other matters on the agenda like the appointment of Mr. Ryuhei Maeda of ANA Holdings to the Board but it won't interest your appetite.



There was a leak about this story before. While its not clear yet whether the order is for the additional A359 or A35X, approval has already been secured to get some more. So, at least for this year, its confirmed that they are buying more planes for 2022-24 deliveries. Now lets wait what PAL would say in couple of days.

[XWB_flyer]

By the Manila Standard 

http://www.manilastandard.net/mobile/article/296531

Boeing is pitching there B777X to PAL likely as a replacement for there B77W fleet.

[Solblanc]

There are reports circulating though that the 777X will be delayed. End-2020 to 2021 is a more realistic timeframe for EIS. And then there’s the ramp-up.

If Boeing loses the 5J order, I’d expect them to work double-time to sell PAL the 777X. Their market share will shrink to zero in the Philippines if they’re not careful.

[Arianespace]

Boeing offered 77X to PAL after making B78k presentation to CEB three months ago. They are fully aware of PR's keen interest in the A35K and was selling both the 8's and the 9's.  But like what I said earlier, they would eventually settle soon for the A35K and the B779 following the CX direction.

[Arianespace]

Philippine Airlines Eyes 2 Boeing 777X Aircraft

Philippine Airlines is in discussions with Boeing to acquire two new Boeing 777X aircraft.

Boeing is reported to be pushing the 777X as a replacement for two of Philippine Airlines’ older 777-300ER aircraft

The Philippine Star reports that Philippine Airlines is potentially looking at acquiring two Boeing 777X aircraft to replace their two oldest 777-300ERs.

First sentence is not true. Boeing just offered the 77x as 77w replacement.
Second sentence is true.
Third sentence not true.  PAL is not looking at acquiring this bird at this time because they are currently looking at another bird from Europe.

If at all, leases to both planes (7777 and 7776) from GECAS has just been renewed. PAL however need 4 more planes to add capacity to existing long haul destinations ie LAX, SFO before 2023 and Boeing can make delivery only in 2024 assuming orders are made now. So the story doesn't add up. No doubt PAL will have this plane soon, but not in the quantities floated. I'm hearing dozens of them in the near future.

[crash&burn]

Last heard, Boeing was offering 3 variants. 777-8 with 368 seats and 777-9 with 382 and 416 seats.

Airbus proposed 414 seats with Y class at 17 inches seat width 10 abreast. Boeing disputes this, claiming A350 can barely do 17 inches without sculpting.

[Eurest]

Exciting days are ahead

The hubbub from the industry as pertaining to the RP players

5J's longhaul plans are modest
Looking at improving efficiencies and not expansion, happy with Value Alliance for European longhaul. Aiming to further strengthen OZ, ME and China
A330-900
Toulouse holds 5J in high regard, sees them as "Airbus Posterchild" for new airline success , gets enviable deal terms and is often cited during sales pitch to other prospects globally along with AirAsia.

PR is Airbus/RR v Boeing/GE battleground
Both know MNL-US is cash cow as pax willing to pay slightly more for convenience and "Filipino warmth"

Boeing is out on an offensive in PH
Reached deal with a PH conglomerate for a 5J rival, would feature a NorwegianAir similar fleet but would assure US LH in a few years because of Boeing lobbyists and a US partner tight with Boeing (though they have Airbus now)
First of 3 Max deliveries got caught in the grounding. Deal in limbo due to Max issues

Boeing now turning to PR
Price for 2 777X is eye opening, banking on payload, capacity and range and ease of transition from B77W

A35K to replace B77W would be 1:1 pax capacity wise as required for PR's payload range requirement would yield a 3 class A350-1000 around same pax capacity as B77W, but cargo?
But since a few current B77W have years to go, cost efficiency bonus to fleet simplicity is non-existent
Boeing wants to maintain its status as Transpacific icon, from B742 to B744 to B77W to hopefully B777X, every A359/K vs B777X transpacific fight matters to Boeing
GE also wary of diminishing aircraft powerplant business in PH, sale and leaseback via GECAS another advantage over A35K
GE maintaining relationship with PR in hopes of switch to CFM Leap when current CEO fleet needs replacement
Current transpacific overcapacity might sway PR to more efficient AC

[Solblanc]

5J is supposedly going to make an announcement for an A330neo/A321XLR order. It’s on reuters.

The A321XLR should be able to reach SYD and MEL with a mono class config. Interesting times ahead.

[Solblanc]

And now Alex Macheras just tweeted that the 5J announcement is in two hours.

JJB is in Paris right now. Is he just there as a spectator? Magpapatalo ba siya? 😁 there’s also an inquirer article out that says he’s already asked for resignation and vivienne tan is taking over. That same article says he’s in Paris. Will he make this airshow a swan song with an order?

[XWB_flyer]

I read that 5J will configured there A330neo with 460 seats which is +20 more then the exit limit of the A330 which is 440. Unless its a misquote or AB will revised the exit limit of the A330neo to 465 or 480 seats!  

[PAL Skytrax 2019]

Skytrax World’s Most Improved Airlines 2019
* Philippine Airlines
And World’s Top 100 Airlines 2019
* Top 30 World's Best Airline in the World
* Top 11 World's Best Cabin Crew
* Top 14 World's Best Economy Class Airlines

CONGRATULATIONS PAL

[XWB_flyer]

PAL will be reducing frequency in its North American network effective between June 21 and August 23.

• Manila - Honolulu: From Aug 23 to Nov 28, frequency reduced from 5 to 4 times weekly.

• Manila - Los Angeles: From Jun 21 to Aug 23, frequency reduced from 17 to 16 times weekly, while from Aug 23 to Dec 11 frequency will be twice daily or 14 times weekly.

• Manila - New York JFK: From Sep 05 to Nov 21, frequency reduced from daily to 5 times weekly.

• Manila - San Francisco: From, Jun 10 to Aug 22 frequency reduced from twice daily to 13 times weekly, and from Aug 25 to 21 Nov frequency will be 10 times weekly.

• Manila - Toronto: From Sep 17 to Nov 25, frequency reduced from daily to 5 times weekly.

• Manila - Vancouver: From Sep 16 to Nov 20, frequency reduced from daily to 5 times weekly.

Courtesy of Routesonline:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/284944/philippine-airlines-2h19-north-america-frequency-changes/

[Solblanc]

Eurest wrote

Exciting days are ahead


A35K to replace B77W would be 1:1 pax capacity wise as required for PR's payload range requirement would yield a 3 class A350-1000 around same pax capacity as B77W, but cargo?
But since a few current B77W have years to go, cost efficiency bonus to fleet simplicity is non-existent
Boeing wants to maintain its status as Transpacific icon, from B742 to B744 to B77W to hopefully B777X, every A359/K vs B777X transpacific fight matters to Boeing
GE also wary of diminishing aircraft powerplant business in PH, sale and leaseback via GECAS another advantage over A35K
GE maintaining relationship with PR in hopes of switch to CFM Leap when current CEO fleet needs replacement
Current transpacific overcapacity might sway PR to more efficient AC

There is still one thing against keeping the 77Ws: their config. The J product is not consistent with what goes to LHR, YYZ, and JFK. They can’t offer a premium economy product to their bread and butter lax/sfo.  They prioritized refurbishing their A330s over the 77Ws. The cost of reconfigurations may prove to be the dealbreaker over simple replacement

[XWB_flyer]

quote author="Solblanc">


There is still one thing against keeping the 77Ws: their config. The J product is not consistent with what goes to LHR, YYZ, and JFK. They can’t offer a premium economy product to their bread and butter lax/sfo.  They prioritized refurbishing their A330s over the 77Ws. The cost of reconfigurations may prove to be the dealbreaker over simple replacement

The Boeing 777 is bigger aircraft so it will be more expensive to re-configured  then an A330. As for how much it will cost to refurbished the cabins I've found a close example Swiss 5 A340-300 took 6 weeks per aircraft to replaced the old seats in F, J, Y. And installed a new IFE system. Each aircraft would cost 20 million CHF, (104 Million pesos if converted), for 5 aircraft if combined  would cost 100 million CHF, (or roughly 522 million pesos). The A340 isn't even a big aircraft and is closer sized with the A330. So i imagine the 777 would cost much higher and longer to refurbished though I'm not sure if it justify the cost of acquiring  a new aircraft although leasing rates sould also be considered.

For reference:
https://blog.swiss.com/en/2019/06/new-cabin-interior/