Airlines In The Philippines II

[Arianespace]

According to grapevine, CEB cancelled MEL because there is no plane available. Apparently 5J has difficulty securing lease payments prompting it to delay delivery of another A339 next year. P9.5B losses on the first half is taking a toll to its delivery schedules.

CEB CFO Mark Cezar said the budget carrier expects to close the year in the red on the mix of economic concerns troubling air travel here and abroad.

According to him his airline faces difficulty returning to green, as it deals with the triple whammy of surging fuel prices, weakening peso, and interest rate hikes.

Well, Peso just touch almost 60 from the valuation of 52 a year ago versus the greenback.

Earlier this year Lance Gokongwei said it had set a capital expenditure (capex) budget of P32.8 billion for 2022, mainly for fleet replacement, which is a far cry to P183.85 billion capex commitments for 2021.

The company ended 2021 with 74 aircraft, the same fleet as in 2020. It received six new aircraft last year. It hoped for a better fiscal performance. It failed.

This year, Cebu Pacific will have 7 A320NEO deliveries, replacing 8 CEOs which will exit the fleet.  Thus reducing the fleet further to 73. Clearly, no A339s.

Problem is its net loss is growing to P60 billion, in addition to its reported net loss of P24.9 billion for 2021, and P22.2 billion in 2020.

Still, Mr. Gokongwei contends to have 48 deliveries of A339s and A320neos and ceo 35 exits, ending 2026 with 87 aircraft, which to my mind is too ambitious considering its growing losses.

I think they will announce soon the further reschedule of new fleet deliveries like PAL did as they try to balance their finances.

[Eurest]

5J secured financing for Q4 and 2023 A320NEO family deliveries as early as July this year.
During the pandemic, they had sufficient cash reserves for sale and leasebacks for all their deliveries despite minimal cash coming in.

The A339s cannot be delivered because RR cannot deliver more Trent 7000s as it still faces supply chain issues.
It's why 5J received the newer built A339s first rather than 2 year old D7 NTUs as RR only had capacity to furnish engines for scheduled deliveries. When 5J took the whitetails, their engines were scheduled for delivery after what was already on queue by then.
As part of their long-term storage maintenance of the NTUs, Airbus "borrowed" newly delivered T7000s for the scheduled engine runs before attaching them to the frames they were meant for.

All engine manufacturers are suffering from the same fate. In fact a 2m0 old A320NEO was parked because one of its' GTFs failed & P&W couldn't furnish spares for an overhaul.
I believe the 404s of the PH FA-50s are also grounded because GE cannot provide spares atm

[JNC03]

There are unconfirmed reports that RP-C3347 will be converted to freighter after its ferry flight to US

[peterpiloto]

JNC03 wrote

There are unconfirmed reports that RP-C3347 will be converted to freighter after its ferry flight to US

 
How time flies! I remember seeing her brand new back in 2016. She and 3348 were both AirAsia X NTU and was planned for flights to Honolulu as they were more capable than the first six A333s.

Meanwhile APG has added two A320s from Thai AirAsia. RP-C8945 AND RP-C8947.

[seven13]

I’m quite confused how the recent ASEAN-EU airlink agreement will work. Does it mean example, PR can offer MNL-(ASEAN)-FCO with 5th freedom on an ASEAN stop to a EU member state and back?

[Eurest]

If the ASEAN side is the same as the EU side,
Philippine carriers can fly up to 7x weekly passenger services beyond or via any 3rd country to EU member states with 5th freedom rights.
It increases to 14x weekly after 2 years.
If it's via a 3rd country like your example, that 3rd country should grant 5th freedom rights as well.
The EU example was PRG-SIN-MNL
So for the Philippines, something like MNL/CRK/CEB-LCA-ORY

Passenger services from ASEAN to EU or vice versa that only carry 3rd & 4th freedom rights are not limited aside from airport slot restrictions

The agreement still needs ratification on the EU side, not sure w/ ASEAN member states.

[Arianespace]

I would say, BKK would be the most feasible at our end. We have both 5th freedom from both SIN which however constitute detour. Technically, A330/B789 would do wonders to EU via BKK, with full rights. Remember, PRs 7xx designation I was talking about previously, is EU designations. That's gonna be a game changer for both PAL and CEB. It was hampered previously at EU end when stopping at BKK. Lets see how they implement this. I can see Italy, France and Germany as immediate beneficiaries.

Take note also of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 countries. Which means, Myanmar would not benefit from it in the short term.

[Arianespace]

By the way, immediate beneficiary would be KLM which is flying BKK without 5th freedom rights to MNL.

The rule also states specific origin-intermediate-destination pairs. So if you come from NCE in France going to MNL, KLM could not benefit from this EA-CATA because it will still need to go to AMS which happens to stop at BKK because that already constitute two intermediary stop.

Similarly, PAL could not do both FCO and CDG if it were to stop at BKK. It must fly straight to EU to enjoy EA-CATA.

With that in mind, suddenly the case of PAL to make FRA-FCO-MNL, and CDG-FCO-MNL as EU anchor is closer to reality. Actually, the arrangement is similar to MNL-YVR-JFK before.

Now, would PAL soon bite?

[seven13]

Isn’t SQ flying a route from SIN to BCN via MXP exercising 5th freedom? Also between CPH and FCO.

So it will look something like MNL/CEB/CRK-ASEAN-EU or MNL/CEB/CRK-EU1-EU2 having 5th freedom. Would PR also be able to do cargo run onto EU via PNH/SGN/HAN via this EU-ASEAN airlink?

I was thinking MNL-SGN/HAN-CDG


On a side note, 8789 flew for nearly 2hrs yesterday as PR6789 and landed back in Manila. Is she being prepped to RTS?

[XWB_flyer]

I do question can PAL really pull off another expansion with the few aircraft they have?

I've read from another fourms about rumors of short term leasing agreement more on the lines of filling the gap until at less 2028 when LH returns the 4 A359 (Which seem to long IMHO), as for the type I've read B77L are being considered along with B77W on a short term basis. Also is PAL activity considering the A350-1000? will it be part of the current options or separate like NTU frames most of it seem exaggerated to me at less

[Arianespace]

seven13 wrote

Isn’t SQ flying a route from SIN to BCN via MXP exercising 5th freedom? Also between CPH and FCO.

So it will look something like MNL/CEB/CRK-ASEAN-EU or MNL/CEB/CRK-EU1-EU2 having 5th freedom. Would PR also be able to do cargo run onto EU via PNH/SGN/HAN via this EU-ASEAN airlink?

I was thinking MNL-SGN/HAN-CDG


On a side note, 8789 flew for nearly 2hrs yesterday as PR6789 and landed back in Manila. Is she being prepped to RTS?

Yes. For a long time. But that is Singapore. We are much interested about our aviation here, where much of that 5th freedom  were likewise denied by the EU. Case in point, the route that was previously mentioned.

MNL-SGN/HAN-CDG is also a good idea. But we don't have 5th freedom rights to Vietnam just yet. What we have are those from Thailand and Singapore only in the ASEAN region.

As to your second question, I think I answered this already.

XWB_flyer wrote

I do question can PAL really pull off another expansion with the few aircraft they have?

I've read from another fourms about rumors of short term leasing agreement more on the lines of filling the gap until at less 2028 when LH returns the 4 A359 (Which seem to long IMHO), as for the type I've read B77L are being considered along with B77W on a short term basis. Also is PAL activity considering the A350-1000? will it be part of the current options or separate like NTU frames most of it seem exaggerated to me at less

We should be the least surprise of that rumor coming true. After all that rumor was leaked here first.

The question about EU airlink is not about PAL capacity but capability. Is PAL capable of mounting that route? I think the answer to that is affirmative. That is the plan during RSA time circa 2014. Request for 5th freedom was denied by EU. I believe the plan is still there.

[XWB_flyer]

Arianespace wrote

XWB_flyer wrote

I do question can PAL really pull off another expansion with the few aircraft they have?

I've read from another fourms about rumors of short term leasing agreement more on the lines of filling the gap until at less 2028 when LH returns the 4 A359 (Which seem to long IMHO), as for the type I've read B77L are being considered along with B77W on a short term basis. Also is PAL activity considering the A350-1000? will it be part of the current options or separate like NTU frames most of it seem exaggerated to me at less

We should be the least surprise of that rumor coming true. After all that rumor was leaked here first.

The question about EU airlink is not about PAL capacity but capability. Is PAL capable of mounting that route? I think the answer to that is affirmative. That is the plan during RSA time circa 2014. Request for 5th freedom was denied by EU. I believe the plan is still there.

Ok so this seem have been planning this for sometime at less way back in 2014 during RSA and SMC controling stake of PAL as for aircraft considering we won't see the A359 anytime soon will make do with 2nd hand aircraft like the A330-300  or B777? A 242t MTOW could be viable especially when supplemented with newer A330-900neo operating 5th Freedom Flights from BKK to EU?

I'm mixed honestly with what direction PAL is going especially the pessimism from what I've seen the pass mounth though change is difficult if not impossible I just want to see them be sustainable with there operations and try not to be too aggressive expanding there network in this post-pandemic environment and possible concerns of an economic ression which will stretch till next year and until a conclusion of the Russo-Ukranian War which hampered the EU.

[Eurest]

The ASEAN side is at a disadvantage because of the EU single aviation market.
AF can fly to SIN starting from FRA or FCO, while SQ can only fly to the EU starting from SIN
This is taken advantage of EU LCCs as they are not locked into their home country.

Also, the agreement allows for EU/ASEAN to fly cargo to the ASEAN/EU VIA or BEYOND

The EU site has an FAQ w/c makes the agreement easier to grasp, I checked the ASEAN site and it doesn't go into as much detail.

EU-ASEAN Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement Q&A

[XWB_flyer]

New article from Simplyflying  it those have a great point anout the need for PAL to have additional wide-body aircrafts. Although as for what type the depends PAL could take some of the NTU A350s originally intended for QR or lease on a short-term basis additionally oldercwide-body aircraft types like the A330s or B777s which could be available for lower rate then newer aircraft like the B787 and A350s! Lastly it also mentions the need to refurbished the cabin of older B777s which could be an opportunity to innovative like using space efficent J seats new Premium Economy and Economy seats while maintaining the high density configurations either close to the original capacity of 370 or slightly lower 368 to 362 seats.

https://simpleflying.com/philippine-airlines-needs-widebodies-for-100-recovery/

[XWB_flyer]

Korean Air A330-300 suffered runway incursion at CEB causing delayed with both arrival or departure the damage looks really bad won't be surprised if its written off.

https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/korean-air-a330-involved-in-runway-excursion-at-cebu-airport/150669.article?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=Sendible&utm_campaign=RSS

[peterpiloto]

Looks like RP-C7774 flew earlier to XMN possibly for mx?

[Eurest]

Perhaps, as it was declared as a Utility flight. But tech ops aren't usually declared as Utility flight?
Curious though as don't LTP handle B77W line and base? And only the A359s go to Taikoo?
Maybe interiors as well, heard a few B77Ws may still have the Recaro angle-flats
Or perhaps a certain part not available in MNL but XMN has that would be more cost-efficient installed there?
Tan family private plane mode?

Allowed 9 pax and 12.5 tons of MTOW as a Utility flight...
Maybe it was that Ferrari caught in your country's BRT lane flying to China, perhaps scared the local authorities might seize it and flatten it.
Or the CCCP might have ordered it back to China so as not to cause offense to the PH public like that Mustang a few years back that killed a Traffic enforcer?

Something to monitor on duration of stay at XMN

[Arianespace]

PAL secures overflight rights over Siberian Airspace effective November 1 after finding bank in China that process Russian fees. It used to be process directly to a sanctioned Russian bank. Meanwhile, CPA still go detour. Wonder why?

[Evodesire]

In this case, Capt. Stan's goal of bringing back LHR in 2023 is getting closer to becoming a reality?

[XWB_flyer]

I guess so though it will probably depend if PAL has enough spare long-haul aircraft to revived LHR-MNL. Maybe it could pick-up some A350-900 from SAS which filed for C11 the pass few months and make a similar arrangement to LH with there own A359?