Airlines In The Philippines II

[JNC03]

June:

Visit of the PH government to France
Paris Airshow

If PAL officials are also on board the PR1 then they will go to the airshow

[JNC03]

Any plans for the Europe comeback of PAL?

[XWB_flyer]

I've been thinking about PAL narrow-body fleet lately and wondered if they (I mean mainline PAL), has plans to order either more A321neo or its other varaints such as the LR and XLR could we see PAL ordering them or through leaseing and what about the six A321neo being used for 8+ hours flights (I refuseto call them LR because they arent!), will PAL continue to used them when more capable varaints of the A321neo enter service? Cebu Pacific has orders for 10 A321XLR for example and will probably have an advantage in performance compared to PAL converted A321neo ACT!

[Solblanc]

JNC03 wrote

Any plans for the Europe comeback of PAL?

Pre-pandemic, Paris was in the cards. Either a new service or a replacement of LHR. In terms of traffic, London had the largest traffic to the Philippines followed by Paris, then Amsterdam, Milan, and Rome.

The problem with flights to Europe is that O&D alone is quite thin, and Mideast + Turkish + Chinese carriers can easily undercut PAL fares. Pre-pandemic, you could easily get $500 tickets between Europe and Manila, so you need a good base of people willing to go nonstop, which you have in the United States, but not necessarily in Europe.

In short, if LHR is struggling, other points won’t fare any better. PAL is better off sending those planes to the US and Canada where they’ll make more money.

[XWB_flyer]

Solblanc wrote

Pre-pandemic, Paris was in the cards. Either a new service or a replacement of LHR. In terms of traffic, London had the largest traffic to the Philippines followed by Paris, then Amsterdam, Milan, and Rome.

The problem with flights to Europe is that O&D alone is quite thin, and Mideast + Turkish + Chinese carriers can easily undercut PAL fares. Pre-pandemic, you could easily get $500 tickets between Europe and Manila, so you need a good base of people willing to go nonstop, which you have in the United States, but not necessarily in Europe.

In short, if LHR is struggling, other points won’t fare any better. PAL is better off sending those planes to the US and Canada where they’ll make more money.

I think PAL is better off partnering with TK and EK by providing connection between PAL domestic hubs CEB, CRK, and MNL. Which could help then maintain a market share in the price sensative LCC domestic route.

[JNC03]

Will PAL fly to India again?

Since they will activate the A321neos grounded and receive more soon

[XWB_flyer]

That is a good question considering PAL has 13 A321neo on order which will probably replace the A321ceo, assuming the ratio is 1:1 with some of them being potentially transferred to GAP for used on domestic flights and possibly replace the A320s? I don't think that is enough to fully replace the A321ceo for regional route although PAL could lease more to expedite delivery and to increase thier fleet sized.

As I've mentioned previously I also think it's worth considering both LR and XLR along with the A320neo which could be base in smaller hubs such as CRK and CEB.

[Arianespace]

If you look now at PAL fleet direction, the lesser dense 309 seater A333, about 5 of them, heads to Pacific region, for rotations to HNL, SYD, MEL. And these have the 2-4-2 seats at Y. PAL recognizes that passenger in this direction pay better for value.

Meanwhile, the 4 denser 363 seater A333 makes its way to the Middle East transporting OFW folks at 3-3-3 Y on a budget. PAL and CEB has largely been successful competing on this market with ME carriers because its cheap. And its growing.

Four frames do heavy rotation for this sector flying DXB,DOH,DAM, and RUH, substituted occasionally by the Pacific bound A333s. The problem, most of these flights are full, which means PAL has to bump 50 others off the plane. As the bumping progresses, it becomes one whole special flight, which PAL then flies once a week. To remedy this situation, they are converting two of the pacific A330s also to dense 3-3-3 Y configuration (359 seats) mainly to service ME to rectify this planning shortfall, while pacific region fleet can always be augmented by the A359, which saw it flying SYD and MEL already.

Going forward in the future, I could see PAL diverting the remaining pacific A333s bound to ME, with the entry of the baby boeing.

Why I would think this way?

As the airline slowly drops old boeing from its fleet for the bus, a baby replaces it, with some commonality with the older one, pilot transition is not that difficult. They already have one ready for transition, the 77w pilots.  At this perspective, I could also see HNL, MEL, SYD as future routes together with the west coast cities, with 3 frames doing rotations From CEB to LAX and SFO.

Some would argue against the complexity of multiple fleet. I very much doubt about that concern.  Aircraft type has different prices to begin with, some more expensive than the other, and some catering to a particular niche, which acquisition cost the airline considers a lot. And we have identified this already. Low paying and high paying markets. You can actually look at it by examining their current fleet of widebodies, and where they are deployed.

Having said all of these, the current A330 might progress to the NEO in the future, and would serve the middle east market very well, with the same biclass 360 pax.

My choice for the NEO and why PAL might get them instead of the B787-10 as you also desire for them to have is actually simple. It is the most cost effective aircraft in Asia and the middle east, as they are cheaper, low cost aircraft that has the same capacity as the B7810, with a price tag of $298 million as compared to $340 million for the Boeing (Air Finance Journal quoted rates 2023), payment for its amortization is not that difficult. I'm not sure if the baby can pay itself doing ME run with price sensitive passengers.

So you see its all related, low fares, neo. High fares, baby. simple.

P.S.
Baby actually earns more flying longer flights and PAL can fill it with high paying passengers. Don't believe me. Look at their fares for routes across the big pond. As a matter of fact, it is one source of their biggest revenue per flight.

[JNC03]

So is PAL eyeing A339s too?

To replace dense config A333 which they use in ME


Tri class A333 = 787-9
Bi class A333 = A330neo🤔

[Arianespace]

That is speculation on my part. No word from PAL about it.

Knowing Airbus however, I would not believed the manufacturer will not peddle the neo as a tag to the bus. If they were able to do that in 2012, they are going to do that again, as was done in 2001 and 2007 before that. And they are hugely successful, with the fleet PAL have now.

If you know the 77w story, had it not for the Boeing deposits for the 744s, PAL could have taken the A346. That is a fact. That is how persuasive Airbus is, and its super salesman John Leahy. Alas, the man has retired, but the persuasion is still there.

[JNC03]

Hmmmm i think Airbus will mention it in their meeting with PAL, the phone call you mentioned last week

[XWB_flyer]

Beside the A330neo they could also offer the A321LR and A321XLR  as alternative. However both types are doing well in term of aircraft orders and demand while the A330neo is struggling to gain customer against the B787 Dreamliner so it is possible they will offer it as a tag-along with any potential A35K order another would be the A359 could also be a stop-gap while PAL A359 are with LH. But like the B787 it is also doing well too and is more expensive then the A330neo yeah guess its best to wait and see!

[Evodesire]

So with all these said, this may possibly be the look of PAL's fleet in like 4 to 6 years:

A350-1000 = replaces 77W
A350-900 =compliments A35K long haul routes, may also be used to Oceania routes
787-9 = for new routes including lower pax count routes like Cebu - LAX etc, other US and maybe EU routes. To be used also for better cargo ops.
A330neo = direct replacement for A330-300 dedicated for ME routes and possibly domestic like CEB, GES, etc.
A321neo

Makes sense. Its like the 787-9 will give PAL more flexibility.

If I remember your post before, the LH A359s will be returned to PAL after 4 years and will have the 313 seat config. Will RP-C3501 and 3508 also be reconfigured or they will remain with 295 seats for JFK and YYZ routes?

[Arianespace]

For those who doesn't believed in my post, I have always this back-up from the sources mouth just to confirm it.

The cabin modification agreement covers 11 A320, two A330-300s and two A350-900s.

https://aircraft.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2022-02-airbus-to-support-philippine-airlines-traffic-ramp-up-with-cabin-an-new-material-services-contract

[Arianespace]

By the way , here is some basic 789 load calculations LAX-MNL before I forget it.



And here is the real world range at 6356nm,



Have fun!

[chowpau]

The A320s are done as far as I know..i dunno with the 2 A330 and A350

[XWB_flyer]

According to flightroutes LH will be configuring them to 318-seats "J30 W26 Y262" (I couldn't find the link will add it later!)

My best guest the new configuration will consist the following:

• Front galley
• Doors L1 & R1
• BCL Lavatories
• BCL Cabin 8 rows, 1-2-1, 1-8.
• Doors L2 & R2, Center galley.
• 1 PECY lavatories either in the starboard or port area?
• 4 rows of PECY seats, 2-4-2 layout, 21-24.
• Front ECY cabin, 14 rows, 3-3-3 layout, 31-44.
• ECY lavatories 4.
• Doors L3 & L4
• Rear ECY cabin, 16 rows, 2-3-2 to 3-3-3 layout, 51-66.
• Rear LAV and small galley.
• Doors L4 & R4.
• Rear Galleys and main for regular ECY.

[seven13]

Arianespace wrote

If you look now at PAL fleet direction, the lesser dense 309 seater A333, about 5 of them, heads to Pacific region, for rotations to HNL, SYD, MEL. And these have the 2-4-2 seats at Y. PAL recognizes that passenger in this direction pay better for value.

Meanwhile, the 4 denser 363 seater A333 makes its way to the Middle East transporting OFW folks at 3-3-3 Y on a budget. PAL and CEB has largely been successful competing on this market with ME carriers because its cheap. And its growing.

Four frames do heavy rotation for this sector flying DXB,DOH,DAM, and RUH, substituted occasionally by the Pacific bound A333s. The problem, most of these flights are full, which means PAL has to bump 50 others off the plane. As the bumping progresses, it becomes one whole special flight, which PAL then flies once a week. To remedy this situation, they are converting two of the pacific A330s also to dense 3-3-3 Y configuration (359 seats) mainly to service ME to rectify this planning shortfall, while pacific region fleet can always be augmented by the A359, which saw it flying SYD and MEL already.

Going forward in the future, I could see PAL diverting the remaining pacific A333s bound to ME, with the entry of the baby boeing.

Why I would think this way?

As the airline slowly drops old boeing from its fleet for the bus, a baby replaces it, with some commonality with the older one, pilot transition is not that difficult. They already have one ready for transition, the 77w pilots.  At this perspective, I could also see HNL, MEL, SYD as future routes together with the west coast cities, with 3 frames doing rotations From CEB to LAX and SFO.

Some would argue against the complexity of multiple fleet. I very much doubt about that concern.  Aircraft type has different prices to begin with, some more expensive than the other, and some catering to a particular niche, which acquisition cost the airline considers a lot. And we have identified this already. Low paying and high paying markets. You can actually look at it by examining their current fleet of widebodies, and where they are deployed.

Having said all of these, the current A330 might progress to the NEO in the future, and would serve the middle east market very well, with the same biclass 360 pax.

My choice for the NEO and why PAL might get them instead of the B787-10 as you also desire for them to have is actually simple. It is the most cost effective aircraft in Asia and the middle east, as they are cheaper, low cost aircraft that has the same capacity as the B7810, with a price tag of $298 million as compared to $340 million for the Boeing (Air Finance Journal quoted rates 2023), payment for its amortization is not that difficult. I'm not sure if the baby can pay itself doing ME run with price sensitive passengers.

So you see its all related, low fares, neo. High fares, baby. simple.

P.S.
Baby actually earns more flying longer flights and PAL can fill it with high paying passengers. Don't believe me. Look at their fares for routes across the big pond. As a matter of fact, it is one source of their biggest revenue per flight.

This makes logical sense. Should PR have a fleet of A339/A330, B789, A359 and A35K, which amongst these wb do you think would be utilized for key regional routes? Pre pandemic, PR has been sending the triclass A330 to HND/NRT, SIN while BKK has been receiving the biclass alongside PVG, HKG and ICN. At present, the B777 are sometimes utilized to fly HND, SIN and BKK and on occasion, SGN. There were a few times, it flew to XMN.

I’m suspecting the B789 will be used for the second rotation of SFO (114) and a third LAX rotation (124) or restarting CEBLAX.

C3508 is unable to fly ULH since late last year or since early this year due to water pipes problem. So the B777 is being sent to YYZ and C3508 is currently doing rotations mostly ICN, sometimes SIN and BKK. For SYD and MEL, it did one or two flights, it’s a nightmare flying on a plane without any water supply onboard.

[Arianespace]

Whatever is available when they need it for cargo run. That is the power of flexibility. Normally, its flown by 321N.

The plan that I heared is already 5 LAX and 4 SFO daily rotations soon. So your calculations is too conservative. They already tested 4 to LAX and 3 to SFO ex MNL. Stan was very delighted with the results. And then there is CEB but its not LAX alone. SFO is added to the mix. And then they are planning to add frequency to YVR too. That needs a lot of plane. And it couldn't be the biggest one flying all the time.

So youe suspicion is possible. I could already see them using circular service MNL-LAX-CEB-MNL  as a possibility also. Circular because when it arrives in CEB early morning it then goes back to MNL for another flight to LAX on the 11am departure, while another one doing it in opposite direction doing LAX/SFO from CEB at 10pm. In the alternative, it could do belly run to China. So it stays most of the time in the air, making money, which is actually good strategy for an expensive plane.

[XWB_flyer]

The A330 are being work-on since last month so far no pics of its cabin interiors my best guest they should be out soon? Next would be the A350 likely starting with 3508 so its pipes can also be fix assuming thier no issues with spare parts.