Airlines in the Philippines

[Arianespace]

The story for the week is that CEB has just been granted 120 minutes ETOPS rating from the FAA. For the Philippine side it would be EDTO, a word patterned after the Aussie standards.

Did you know that our very own PCAR was patterned after Australia, with some modifications to suit our needs? That is because the consultant that was hired to make it is himself Australian. I would have like similar rules based on FAA as what South Korea and Japan does.

Eurest  had a good account of this story before, and we likewise had fruitful discussion about the ETOPS thing when the A321s were headlined news.

Another good story worth posting is the bilateral rights the Philippines got from Oman. Fifth Freedom rights either to Europe, India or the Middle East. Now we have three States granting our country that option to fly Europe. The question now is would our airlines be willing to fly triangular ala North America? Paris, Rome and Milan comes to my mind.

[seven13]

Cebpac crew should now be prepared for random Q&A by the FAA in GUM. Apparently, the FAA boards the aircraft and randomly ask safety questions. One story I heard was which page on the operation's manual can you find the POB.

Three states granting 5th freedom to EU are UAE, Oman and Israel, am I right? I guess ot'll take several more years before we can actually see our carriers flying to other European cities.

[romantic_guy08]

Arianespace wrote

The story for the week is that CEB has just been granted 120 minutes ETOPS rating from the FAA. For the Philippine side it would be EDTO, a word patterned after the Aussie standards.

Did you know that our very own PCAR was patterned after Australia, with some modifications to suit our needs? That is because the consultant that was hired to make it is himself Australian. I would have like similar rules based on FAA as what South Korea and Japan does.

Eurest  had a good account of this story before, and we likewise had fruitful discussion about the ETOPS thing when the A321s were headlined news.

Another good story worth posting is the bilateral rights the Philippines got from Oman. Fifth Freedom rights either to Europe, India or the Middle East. Now we have three States granting our country that option to fly Europe. The question now is would our airlines be willing to fly triangular ala North America? Paris, Rome and Milan comes to my mind.

From the news report I read, it is only the CAAP that granted 5J 120-minutes EDTO, no FAA approval yet...

Have they even started ETOPS airline and A330 type certification?

[Arianespace]

romantic_guy08 wrote

From the news report I read, it is only the CAAP that granted 5J 120-minutes EDTO, no FAA approval yet...

Have they even started ETOPS airline and A330 type certification?

Correct. But you see, EDTO Rating by CAAP already is equivalent to FAA approval for ETOPS by virtue of us being in Cat 1. IMHO the actual FAA approval may not be there yet but the CAAP stamp is good as approved as CEB will not undergo the same procedures to seek FAA operational approval. Certification applies to both A320 and A330. We should expect flight within 3-6 months.

[seven13]

Sorry to deviate from ETOPS/EDTO topic.

I've always wondered how big is the GUM and HNL market. PAL is the sole carrier offering direct flights to HNL. HA was kicked out due to competition. I believe KE has a good share of the market. I'm not sure about JAL and ANA. Is there a room for 5J? Or will 5J's entry will stir up demand since it becomes more accessible/affordable?

For GUM, UA operates 2 frequencies daily which seems to have a good LF. But I'm not sure if pax onboard are for GUM or ROR, plus UA can transport pax onto mainland US so an advantage, meanwhile PAL can't sustain a daily flight and reduces service to 5X a week during non-peak months and downgrades aircraft to A320 service. Is the market large enough to sustain another carrier flying the route?

I have an impression that both GUM and HNL market is rather small.

[romantic_guy08]

Arianespace wrote

romantic_guy08 wrote

From the news report I read, it is only the CAAP that granted 5J 120-minutes EDTO, no FAA approval yet...

Have they even started ETOPS airline and A330 type certification?

Correct. But you see, EDTO Rating by CAAP already is equivalent to FAA approval for ETOPS by virtue of us being in Cat 1. IMHO the actual FAA approval may not be there yet but the CAAP stamp is good as approved as CEB will not undergo the same procedures to seek FAA operational approval. Certification applies to both A320 and A330. We should expect flight within 3-6 months.

Eurest listed below items as requirements before 5J can fly to the U.S.

1. Plans to address Family Needs aka US Code 41313 certification from the NTSB
2. The eFCR from the office of the Assistant General for Aviation enforcements and proceedings
3. Filing requirement's for the Montreal agreement to the DoT and FAA
4. Filing of the evidence of the Aircraft Accident Liability Insurance to the Dot and FAA
5. Passenger Manifest Information System of Accounts and Reports to the Dot and FAA
6. FAA Operators Permit
7. ETOPS Certification: Carrier
8. ETOPS Certification: Type

[Arianespace]

The requirements are not exclusive to the US of A. In fact other countries demand those conditions as well. And the list are not even exhaustive but more or less cover the important ones. There are other requirements still to be submitted not on the lists. What is interesting about the US application is the ETOPS,  naturally because of the location of Agana and Honululu.

[Arianespace]

seven13 wrote

Sorry to deviate from ETOPS/EDTO topic.

I've always wondered how big is the GUM and HNL market. PAL is the sole carrier offering direct flights to HNL. HA was kicked out due to competition. I believe KE has a good share of the market. I'm not sure about JAL and ANA. Is there a room for 5J? Or will 5J's entry will stir up demand since it becomes more accessible/affordable?

For GUM, UA operates 2 frequencies daily which seems to have a good LF. But I'm not sure if pax onboard are for GUM or ROR, plus UA can transport pax onto mainland US so an advantage, meanwhile PAL can't sustain a daily flight and reduces service to 5X a week during non-peak months and downgrades aircraft to A320 service. Is the market large enough to sustain another carrier flying the route?

I have an impression that both GUM and HNL market is rather small.

They are small.

But you might have missed the Guam and Hawaii build-up. It is becoming a mega military base and those construction works requires hands. Lots of them. Apparently, most of the English speaking skilled workers happen to be where we are.

This article might interest you. Just read the summary.

[romantic_guy08]

PAL now flies to YVR 11x/week...

Just got me wondering how big the market to YVR is warrant that many flights. Though that they would stop the YVR terminator flights considering that the YYZ and JFK flights already serve YVR. They can reallocate the equipment and the entitlement to another destination.

[seven13]

I think 11X frequency should be ok specially now the PR and WS are in a codeshare agreement.

From PR timetable:
Connections via codeshare with WestJet of Canada available to/from Vancouver: Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Toronto.
Connections via codeshare with WestJet of Canada available to/from Toronto: Montreal & Ottawa.

[Arianespace]

In fact, three more are on the wishing list the next time Canada will meet us. Your guess for onward destination is good as mine. I'm more bent on following RSA's erstwhile pronouncement, ORD or MIA.

[seven13]

Arianespace wrote

The  8PM arrival time pretty much connect to all departing domestic flights early morning the next day. And since they are trying to connect again the kangaroo network, the time bodes well for connections to Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin. Although the trip back to LHR is quite of a challenge. I did see a newspaper ad about this "kangaroo network" in London but cannot somehow remember where the image was posted.

There was this plan before that PAL would eventually connect the kangaroo network with return flights from Australia connecting to LHR. I just cannot figure the how.

There was also this plan of extending flights to New Zealand. PAL has fifth freedom from Australia to New Zealand. With the current schedule, the plane would be back from Auckland for a late evening departure from Australia. That plane would arrive between 6-9am assuming they indeed fly to NZ or they could park all day long before heading back home.  The old schedule and the new one fits perfectly well. So you see, they are working on the timing.

Flights to AKL are now circulating, being studied, but is the current management team keen on expanding down under or rather, how determined  are they to make PR' big down under? On SSC, a post mentioned PR applied for a SYD-AKL but instead was given a DRW-AKL, how does the 5th freedom from Aussie to NZ work (if it is true). Are we allowed to choose which point to fly to AKL or the Aussie government allocates the flight/determines from which point an airline can fly from to AKL?

[Solblanc]

In other news, regional developments aren't very encouraging. TG is having difficulties. MH is having difficulties. GA is also having difficulties.

While it would be tempting to think that PAL would be able to fill in the shoes of these downsizing airlines, the sad reality is that their reductions would likely be absorbed by the Middle Eastern carriers.

Speaking of PAL, why are they waiting so long before they place their widebody order? Of all the airlines in the region, PAL has been the most averse to making capital expenditures. During the time that they were bankrupt, that was understandable, but now?

[Arianespace]

seven13 wrote

Flights to AKL are now circulating, being studied, but is the current management team keen on expanding down under or rather, how determined  are they to make PR' big down under? On SSC, a post mentioned PR applied for a SYD-AKL but instead was given a DRW-AKL, how does the 5th freedom from Aussie to NZ work (if it is true). Are we allowed to choose which point to fly to AKL or the Aussie government allocates the flight/determines from which point an airline can fly from to AKL?

how determined are they depends on market conditions. As you might be aware there are more Filipinos migrating to the land down under than it can generate traffic for return flights.

Fifth Freedom rights from Oz would spell difference if they offer a better product than competition like YVR does. But fare would ultimately be the factor. Right now however, SYD is the most lucrative but saturated market with five airlines competing. But if your destination is the Philippines then that is the plane to go. The way I understand it three flights are proposed. I doubt however if it can be filled. I think two flights is enough. But who knows?

Solblanc wrote

In other news, regional developments aren't very encouraging. TG is having difficulties. MH is having difficulties. GA is also having difficulties.

While it would be tempting to think that PAL would be able to fill in the shoes of these downsizing airlines, the sad reality is that their reductions would likely be absorbed by the Middle Eastern carriers.

Speaking of PAL, why are they waiting so long before they place their widebody order? Of all the airlines in the region, PAL has been the most averse to making capital expenditures. During the time that they were bankrupt, that was understandable, but now?

Actually we foresaw this as forthcoming. TG's aircraft procurement is meddled with politics. MH too. Its like the PAL of the 87 era. I said to a friend of mine they just did PAL's mistake, and we are arguing about the A380 sometime in 2008. Meanwhile, PAL simplified their fleet plans to needs, not wants as all of us here wanted PAL to do.

The wide body order is more dictated by finances. LT needs to pay SM $1.2 billion in 5 years. Had they not have a falling out with RSA, it could have been made this year. But you see, its owner also has deep pockets. So that Order may still be around the corner.  

[seven13]

the A350 will be here in Manila this 20th. Anybody here heard about it? i actually saw someone posting it in FB but Airbus has yet to confirm it. Saw a thread in a.net so I guess it's true?

[Arianespace]

To add suspense to that, a representative from an aircraft leasing firm associated with the A350 is in town. No further details are provided.

[romantic_guy08]

PAL to operate flights to Cairns, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand
 
As part of the expansion of its network in the Oceania region, flag carrier Philippine Airlines will launch flights from Manila to Cairns, Australia, and Auckland, New Zealand beginning December 1 this year.

PAL will operate four flights weekly (Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Sundays) to serve the Manila-Cairns-Auckland route, utilizing the 156-seater Airbus A320.

The selection of CNS as a stop still puzzles me...

[Arianespace]

Why Cairns?

It's actually simple. I earlier estimated that Auckland service isn't ripe for wide body service. Thrice a week would be maximum on a A330. But it can work in a narrow body. PAL moved in with 4 times a week A320 services equivalent to 2 A330. The question then was where is the stop over. I saw Darwin and Cairns as their only option.

I was thinking then that CNS was their best option if they want to go to AKL on a narrow body because of range issues of the A320/321.

I was not however bothered about it since PAL at the start wanted SYD or MEL as connections. Only that its blood bath there.

Survivability wise, Cairns happen to have one competitor, Air New Zealand. It has thrice a week schedule to Auckland and its alternating with PAL. In effect, PAL flights will make AKL a daily flight from CNS.

From planners perspective, CNS has more chance of succeeding given the competition than say SYD or MEL. That is if they can fill the A320 plane considering that there is not much passengers to pick up from there. Good thing about it is the 5th freedom traffic unlike DRW to PER. Economies of scale however favors the two big cities of OZ.

There is no doubt about traffic in New Zealand. The question is can they compete at SYD and MEL? With the comfortable A380 and B787 as your choices? Meanwhile, ANZ has the same product and equipment going to AKL.

Of course there is no substitute for direct flight. I reckon this to be flown direct if they survive for two years. By that time it would have develop the market enough to field at least 3x week A330/340 schedules.

[seven13]

With MCIA offering incentives for local and foreign airlines on fees, would this help convince PAL to start its first longhaul service from CEB? I don't have any data but a three times weekly service to compliment PR112 could be a good start up?

Check this link: http://www.philstar.com:8080/cebu-business/2015/05/19/1456427/tourism-players-support-planned-airline-incentive
------------

Does CNS have a sizeable Filipino community? It does have a good time slot arriving Manila as it can connect to other Asian destinations.

[romantic_guy08]

Arianespace wrote

Why Cairns?

It's actually simple. I earlier estimated that Auckland service isn't ripe for wide body service. Thrice a week would be maximum on a A330. But it can work in a narrow body. PAL moved in with 4 times a week A320 services equivalent to 2 A330. The question then was where is the stop over. I saw Darwin and Cairns as their only option.

I was thinking then that CNS was their best option if they want to go to AKL on a narrow body because of range issues of the A320/321.

I was not however bothered about it since PAL at the start wanted SYD or MEL as connections. Only that its blood bath there.

Survivability wise, Cairns happen to have one competitor, Air New Zealand. It has thrice a week schedule to Auckland and its alternating with PAL. In effect, PAL flights will make AKL a daily flight from CNS.

From planners perspective, CNS has more chance of succeeding given the competition than say SYD or MEL. That is if they can fill the A320 plane considering that there is not much passengers to pick up from there. Good thing about it is the 5th freedom traffic unlike DRW to PER. Economies of scale however favors the two big cities of OZ.

There is no doubt about traffic in New Zealand. The question is can they compete at SYD and MEL? With the comfortable A380 and B787 as your choices? Meanwhile, ANZ has the same product and equipment going to AKL.

Of course there is no substitute for direct flight. I reckon this to be flown direct if they survive for two years. By that time it would have develop the market enough to field at least 3x week A330/340 schedules.

is their significant traffic though between the 3 points?

btw, RP-C7770 and RP-C7778 arriving next year?