Airlines In The Philippines III

[Arianespace]

Meanwhile, KLM loses three (3) slots out of MNL. What is better, it is flown direct now. Still, its the same Air France-KLM. Technically, nothing is lost.

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

Meaning KLM will fly direct to AMS now instead of connecting via Taipei?

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro:  Yeah, it's really unfortunate that, because connectivity is very important, and therefore, I think we have some air services agreement coming up. It's part of all these political talks.I think it's a matter of time, but we will have some direct flights, Manila-Delhi. What are these visas for if the connectivity is poor, and I think it is up to us to strengthen our connectivity.

via WION: https://www.wionews.com/world/philippines-plans-full-e-visa-service-for-indians-space-mou-with-isro-in-work-757213

[Arianespace]

Yes.

Gustavo J Oppenheimer wrote

Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro:  Yeah, it's really unfortunate that, because connectivity is very important, and therefore, I think we have some air services agreement coming up. It's part of all these political talks. I think it's a matter of time, but we will have some direct flights, Manila-Delhi. What are these visas for if the connectivity is poor, and I think it is up to us to strengthen our connectivity.

via WION: https://www.wionews.com/world/philippines-plans-full-e-visa-service-for-indians-space-mou-with-isro-in-work-757213

Bilateral are there since eternity. Indian market is about 120 thousand, roughly 330 passengers a day, according to DOT. Add two thirds of that for the Filipinos. That is 200,000 +/- per annum. No flight still. Since 2018 PAL has been inching to fly DEL back. They lost the slot when they left. Problems with India and the PH is not the ASA but slots on its main airport. For a flag carrier you don't deserve to arrive on red eye. For an LCC, maybe, but not for FSC. And that is the only window they have now.

[Solblanc]

Arianespace wrote

Yes.

Gustavo J Oppenheimer wrote

Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro:  Yeah, it's really unfortunate that, because connectivity is very important, and therefore, I think we have some air services agreement coming up. It's part of all these political talks. I think it's a matter of time, but we will have some direct flights, Manila-Delhi. What are these visas for if the connectivity is poor, and I think it is up to us to strengthen our connectivity.

via WION: https://www.wionews.com/world/philippines-plans-full-e-visa-service-for-indians-space-mou-with-isro-in-work-757213

Bilateral are there since eternity. Indian market is about 120 thousand, roughly 330 passengers a day, according to DOT. Add two thirds of that for the Filipinos. That is 200,000 +/- per annum. No flight still. Since 2018 PAL has been inching to fly DEL back. They lost the slot when they left. Problems with India and the PH is not the ASA but slots on its main airport. For a flag carrier you don't deserve to arrive on red eye. For an LCC, maybe, but not for FSC. And that is the only window they have now.

It goes both ways. Indian carriers have been saying they want to fly to MNL, but are they getting the slots that they want?

This is really getting ridiculous. I don’t know why there’s no urgency to finish the NSCR and connect CRK to MNL so they can accommodate more spillover traffic. There’s only so much that NAIA can take even with all these solutions to expand the airport.

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

They are probably waiting for Jewar and Navi Mumbai to be completed soon

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

2024 PH Aviation Summit will commence on October 2

https://www.avgeek.ph/the-2024-philippine-aviation-summit/

[JNC03]

Airbus execs will be there

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

PAL will re-launch CEB-KIX on December 22 while a 4th weekly flight on the same route will be implemented by February

https://insiderph.com/pal-revives-cebu-osaka-flights-a-few-days-before-christmas

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

United has announced that they will install Starlink on their fleet. This will hurt PAL definitely

https://www.united.com/en/us/newsroom/announcements/cision-125346

[JNC03]

Will they have enough aircraft during that time?

[Evodesire]

Gustavo J Oppenheimer wrote

United has announced that they will install Starlink on their fleet. This will hurt PAL definitely

https://www.united.com/en/us/newsroom/announcements/cision-125346

But PAL will always say "we are different. PAL is PAL. Even if we give mediocre services, people will fly us so why bother to make things better."

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

5J increases weekly flights to Japan during the Holiday Season

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/240916-5jnw24jp

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

5J also acquired a A320N formerly used by IndiGo

https://www.aviationupdatesph.com/2024/09/cebu-pacific-expands-fleet-with-11th-aircraft-delivery-in-2024/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFXUZhleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHQoJI5FlFhPHhiyzHj1mwYIjezUF4PNu1A9fDEyh7Y4XA3IDDdeVepBzow_aem_tKRzA_hbeyvBm-mRZxra8w

[Sky Harbor]

Hi, folks. I can't believe it's been ten years since I was last here. It's great to be back! I will try to be more active, promise.

Now, as I was reading through this (and all other PH-related aviation forums) I was largely looking at the potential for MAD coming back, which I know has been floated on-and-off for years now, and figured I should point something out here.

Solblanc wrote

MAD is too far and is verging on ULH.

MNL-MAD is only slightly shorter than MNL-LAX. Curious how this is "verging on ULH" when MNL-West Coast U.S. isn't despite there being significantly more traffic.

Anyway, I've heard from my own grapevine (not as reliable as here, but reliable enough I suppose) that Filipino diplomats in Spain have been lobbying for some sort of service, especially as the community here grew significantly in the last few years. Plus there's a lot more investment going both ways now (Spanish companies like Acciona in the Philippines; Philippine companies like DD and Megaworld/Emperador in Spain) so I wonder if there's enough justification for it to come back at some point in the future.

[Arianespace]

A welcome cheers perhaps

http://philippine-aviation-forum.259.s1.nabble.com/Airlines-In-The-Philippines-III-tp5255p6124.html

[Solblanc]

Sky Harbor wrote

Hi, folks. I can't believe it's been ten years since I was last here. It's great to be back! I will try to be more active, promise.

Now, as I was reading through this (and all other PH-related aviation forums) I was largely looking at the potential for MAD coming back, which I know has been floated on-and-off for years now, and figured I should point something out here.

Solblanc wrote

MAD is too far and is verging on ULH.

MNL-MAD is only slightly shorter than MNL-LAX. Curious how this is "verging on ULH" when MNL-West Coast U.S. isn't despite there being significantly more traffic.

Anyway, I've heard from my own grapevine (not as reliable as here, but reliable enough I suppose) that Filipino diplomats in Spain have been lobbying for some sort of service, especially as the community here grew significantly in the last few years. Plus there's a lot more investment going both ways now (Spanish companies like Acciona in the Philippines; Philippine companies like DD and Megaworld/Emperador in Spain) so I wonder if there's enough justification for it to come back at some point in the future.

Well, MNL-LAX is likewise verging on ULH, especially LAX-MNL in the winter. Even the 77W has trouble carrying a full load LAX-MNL. So how can MAD compete when the traffic is minuscule compared to the likes of even JFK and ORD. Heck, SAN has more traffic in its own right.

Also, Filipino diplomats everywhere are promoting direct air service regardless of where they are. Doesn’t mean that it’ll happen. It’s part of their job. There are deep historical and improving business ties, but it doesn’t justify direct service at all.

Let’s also look at the numbers posted from a-net user Behramjee for traffic to MNL:

Data source - MIDT

LON - 247K
AMS - 101K
CDG - 98k
MXP - 89K (has the lowest yield though)
FCO - 78K
MAD - 52K
FRA - 50K
BCN - 43K
VIE - 34K
ZRH - 33K
BRU - 31K
MAN - 30K
OSL - 29K
ATH - 27K
DUB - 26K
CPH - 25K
HAM - 24K
MUC - 20K


So far, only AMS and CDG have service. PAL has long since given up on LHR despite the traffic being massive. Next up on the list is Italy, with the second-largest Filipino diaspora in Europe next to the UK. So with all these cities, and an ASEAN-EU CATA in place, there is still no service to busier routes, and somehow MAD is supposed to happen…?

[airline_builder]

I am still hoping for a return to LHR.

But it seem to just be wishful thinking as there are and no future mentions of it by PAL or any of the insiders I know.

[Arianespace]

This is the actual Foreign Traffic Arrival to the Philippines in 2023 from DOT. Not from anybody else's data



This is the actual Foreign Traffic to the Philippines as of April 2024,
Jan-Mar 24
1. SK-349,956
2. US-195,603
3. CN- 85,876
4. JP- 73,159
5. CA- 50,555
6. AU- 50,488
7. TW- 42,955
8. UK- 30,507
9. SG- 25,253
10.DE- 20,816

You can clearly see the trend. On the EU side, only UK and DE shows on the map. They occupy also the front seats. There are more of them than any other EU countries have. France, Russia, and Spain occupy the top 5, while Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark appear if we include the lists to 10. Its the main reason why Aeroflot wanted to fly here.

Watching the correct trend prior to pandemic, between 2017 and 2019, traffic is consistent with today's figures.

 




From the foregoing data, combining it with the data provided by Solblanc, we can extrapolate through mathematical magic that 92.3 million Filipinos went from LHR to MNL. it is also very apparent that KLM services the Seafaring OFWs, otherwise AMS should be there in the top 5 but isn't. And probably the sole reason why KLM services survives. That is the same reason why I said DLH could have more chances of sustaining flights because of the market. Unfortunately, no slot was available to them on the time they desired. Same reason why AFR got theirs from KLM.

[JNC03]