Airlines In The Philippines III

[oninBadz]

Considering the B737Max is perfect fit for GAP, will it be easy for them to have most of their pilots to transition from A320 and Q400 to B737Max just in time for the arrival of those birds?

Having E2's in GAP's line up, where would the Q400 be positioned considering E2 is capable of flying to Q400 routes or will they be around to serve those old airports and those less dense routes?

[airline_builder]

all opinions posted on these fora are interesting and makes a lot of sense. I just think it boils down to the executives of PAL who are most often than not just want to keep their job for the convenience of having one regardless of the airline is going down the pits. Not to discount the fact that they have a "mascot" for a CEO, a "YES MAN" to please the in-laws perhaps? These executives need to grow some balls to run the FLAG carrier - at present they have turned PAL into a mediocre airline trying to be an outdated legacy player.

[Arianespace]

 

oninBadz wrote

Considering the B737Max is perfect fit for GAP, will it be easy for them to have most of their pilots to transition from A320 and Q400 to B737Max just in time for the arrival of those birds?

Having E2's in GAP's line up, where would the Q400 be positioned considering E2 is capable of flying to Q400 routes or will they be around to serve those old airports and those less dense routes?

PAL pilots transitioned before from Boeing to Airbus without issue. I don't see any reason why would it be difficult for GAP to do the same thing.

If you look closer, their narrowbody jet has been growing from 74 seats on single class layout with the BAC1-11, to the 141 seats with B733 to the 177 seats with first gen A320. They have history of going after the bigger and better plane. This time, 39M is the bigger and better plane than the 20N.

As with the E2, I would argue it may become the smallest plane on their fleet soon, with the introduction of 90 seater 175 to the larger 146 seater 195 to follow, with no more baggage restrictions to fly community airports.

It was already shown that economic benefits of turboprop operations slide downwards as more passengers are squeeze inside the jets of the same size.

It was the reason why PAL dropped the Q300 and opted instead for the Q400, and why CEB chooses ATR72 instead of ATR52. Economies of scale. That scale however disappears when airlines fly the same 1 hour block time with similarly sized jets, taking MNL-IAO for example (1 hr. for the jet, 90 minutes for Q4s, and 105 minutes for ATR). Huge difference, ain't it?

Anyhow, those are offers not orders. There are still plenty of variables to consider. So hold your horses.

[Arianespace]

airline_builder wrote

These executives need to grow some balls to run the FLAG carrier - at present they have turned PAL into a mediocre airline trying to be an outdated legacy player.

During JJB time, his got only one man to argue. The old man. This time he makes a point to the whole family. That is a difficult thing to do. In fairness to the man. GSM stand his ground and got booted out. Good thing his expat people are still there. Perhaps doing the checks and balances to family decision.

[Evodesire]

Arianespace wrote

airline_builder wrote

These executives need to grow some balls to run the FLAG carrier - at present they have turned PAL into a mediocre airline trying to be an outdated legacy player.

During JJB time, his got only one man to argue. The old man. This time he makes a point to the whole family. That is a difficult thing to do. In fairness to the man. GSM stand his ground and got booted out. Good thing his expat people are still there. Perhaps doing the checks and balances to family decision.

It seems like we don't know the direction of PAL now. To build its capacity extensively? To operate as both a point-to-point and hub-and-spoke airline? To regain the glory they lost when JJB stepped down? It's just like they are operating just for survival and for the country to have a national flag carrier but there is really no clear direction what they want to do. Capt. Stan has been vocal about serving EU and also catering to transiting passengers, but with the slow decision-making on new plane orders and the other changes they want to make, it seems like they are a mediocre legacy airline.

We still need to see and hear something concrete. Like when JJB said he wanted to make PAL a 5-star airline, all the actions undertaken resulted to huge improvements, which also eventually led them to becoming a 4-star airline.

As for 5J, you can clearly see what they want to become 5 to 10 years from now.

[PAL 747]

Agreed. PAL should get over the trauma of 1998.

The Philippines in 2024 is WAY more different compared to 1998. The economy is bigger now. It's no longer only business people, OFWs and a handful of tourists flying today. Cebu Pacific really took advantage of the growth in the Philippine economy.

[Solblanc]

Incidentally, why does PAL continue to have no airline partners apart from ANA? I understand that alliance membership has costs, but they don’t have to go the alliance route. There are plenty of airlines that they can partner with. They only do codeshares, and outside of the codeshares, there’s no recognition of status nor agreements for accrual.

PAL can only get so much loyalty, as the only people that benefit from Mabuhay miles are people based in the Philippines or Japan. Zero incentive for people outside of the Philippines and Japan to patronize PAL at all. Also difficult to chase biz passengers. If an alliance is really too difficult, then partnerships with a US carrier like AS or AA, a European carrier like LH or KL, and perhaps even Virgin Australia might work. And why did they end their agreement with Etihad?

[cosmicarcher]

Solblanc wrote

Incidentally, why does PAL continue to have no airline partners apart from ANA? I understand that alliance membership has costs, but they don’t have to go the alliance route. There are plenty of airlines that they can partner with. They only do codeshares, and outside of the codeshares, there’s no recognition of status nor agreements for accrual.

I think PAL is trying this route.  Aside from ANA, they have recently forged partnerships with Singapore Airlines and American Airlines (only via LAX) and both partnership allows you to earn corresponding Mabuhay Miles for PAL ticketed itineraries, albeit it's limited to select cities in Europe and USA.

I recently flew MNL-SFO-MNL and was pleasantly surprised that their business class cabin was full on both sectors.  I also went around the plane to stretch mid-flight and economy class is also full.  I have another flight to LAX later this year, would be interesting to see their load that time.

I would like to see PAL strengthen their position as a transit hub between India & South East Asia to the USA.  To start, I hope they bring back SFO and YVR to 2x daily and hopefully CEB-LAX as well.  I really hope they can also tap into India market as their national carrier is not enough to cater to their citizens who fly to/from the USA.  BUT, I do see the physical constraints of NAIA T1, it is not just built for transferring passengers in mind--it's just too small.  ALTHOUGH, was really glad to see the new Mabuhay Lounge--it's miles better than it was before in T2.

[airline_builder]

when you have more bench warmers than that of those wanting to be an all MVP Team in the game - is where PAL is at. Too scared to get sacked (not realizing if they collective enforce what is good for the airline, the family would eventually blink - somethings got to give)

And time and time again been calling out the old hats to get over the usual impressions on passenger profiles, send the basic planes to such routes (OFW to MidEast = just transport them, nothing fancy and save on the cost on inflight catering) not realizing these MidEast routes including KSA are all becoming tourist and travel hubs. These bench warmers need to update their statistics and demographic awareness.

Again, for PAL to move forward and up a notch, they need to be consistent on their hard products across the board regardless of routes - this way they can optimize their fleet flexibility.

Case in point, Australia and Wamos Air.

[Solblanc]

With this environment you describe, I’m starting to think that they might just end up with the A330neo anyway.

They’ll get offers for leased 787 slots, they’ll find that it’s pretty expensive, they’ll vacillate while the family argues whether to get them or not, then mauunahan sila, and they’ll be stuck with A330neos or nothing.

Wait, nothing is also an option.

[Arianespace]

It kinda remind me of the bus that went to AirAsia X. Too long to decide and when they finally did the aircraft was already taken.

The Boeing package is a limited time offer. It won't be around if you wait for sales projections by October. Taking the neo as an option will likely flip their desired plans (cargo operations) as the millennials envisioned it to be, which they themselves tout about, and confirms perceptions on the airline executives.

As part of its transformation efforts this year, PAL earlier bared plans to go big on cargo, with innovations being planned such as a new cargo mobile app and website, Mabuhay Miles accounts for cargo customers and agents, and a last mile cargo delivery service via partnerships with express delivery firms in the country.

“PAL is now a cargo airline in our own right. We will continue to develop new all-cargo markets – removing dependence on passenger traffic as a single revenue stream,” Ng earlier said.
https://www.philstar.com/business/2022/04/26/2176701/pal-ready-take-last-mile-cargo-delivery

You can't project that claim with a neo. A dense plane always has issues with cargo capacity, and thus range. That is basic aeronautical math. And math said B78X is miles better than A339.

And "nothing" is a decision that would lead them to mediocrity, which also lead to the same thing, a confirmation, that they are indeed bench warmers.

[Evodesire]

Arianespace wrote

It kinda remind me of the bus that went to AirAsia X. Too long to decide and when they finally did the aircraft was already taken.

The Boeing package is a limited time offer. It won't be around if you wait for sales projections by October. Taking the neo as an option will likely flip their desired plans (cargo operations) as the millennials envisioned it to be, which they themselves tout about, and confirms perceptions on the airline executives.


And "nothing" is a decision that would lead them to mediocrity, which also lead to the same thing, a confirmation, that they are indeed bench warmers.

As long as the Tans continue to stick their noses in, I guess we will continue to see benchwarmer executives. They have a good team, just too bad that any time they go against a family decision, they would then need to have their resignation letters ready.

Unlike how 5J is being run, Lance gave his executives a free hand to run the airline. Look at them now. They are not overly aggressive, but they are not conservative as well. They can clearly justify the 150 plane order. Not sure if PAL executives are laughing at them or what, but that 5J order should be a cue of the growth of passenger demand in the future.

What PAL lacks now is a long term goal and vision. So I don't know if this is a result of the family being too conservative and the executives not wanting to lose their jobs.

[airline_builder]

Evodesire wrote

Arianespace wrote

It kinda remind me of the bus that went to AirAsia X. Too long to decide and when they finally did the aircraft was already taken.

The Boeing package is a limited time offer. It won't be around if you wait for sales projections by October. Taking the neo as an option will likely flip their desired plans (cargo operations) as the millennials envisioned it to be, which they themselves tout about, and confirms perceptions on the airline executives.


And "nothing" is a decision that would lead them to mediocrity, which also lead to the same thing, a confirmation, that they are indeed bench warmers.

As long as the Tans continue to stick their noses in, I guess we will continue to see benchwarmer executives. They have a good team, just too bad that any time they go against a family decision, they would then need to have their resignation letters ready.

Unlike how 5J is being run, Lance gave his executives a free hand to run the airline. Look at them now. They are not overly aggressive, but they are not conservative as well. They can clearly justify the 150 plane order. Not sure if PAL executives are laughing at them or what, but that 5J order should be a cue of the growth of passenger demand in the future.

What PAL lacks now is a long term goal and vision. So I don't know if this is a result of the family being too conservative and the executives not wanting to lose their jobs.

The family will not get to appreciate the urgency and the potential to act on strong growing market demands simply because the executives are not on the same page to prove their point. They are remiss that no matter how "jollibee" they are to the family (bosses) dispensable at wave of their hands so damn if you do and damn if you don't, ergo might as well do the right thing - be bull headed and do what is best for the flag carrier - but then again reality is "tail between their legs"

[Solblanc]

Arianespace wrote

It kinda remind me of the bus that went to AirAsia X. Too long to decide and when they finally did the aircraft was already taken.

The Boeing package is a limited time offer. It won't be around if you wait for sales projections by October. Taking the neo as an option will likely flip their desired plans (cargo operations) as the millennials envisioned it to be, which they themselves tout about, and confirms perceptions on the airline executives.

As part of its transformation efforts this year, PAL earlier bared plans to go big on cargo, with innovations being planned such as a new cargo mobile app and website, Mabuhay Miles accounts for cargo customers and agents, and a last mile cargo delivery service via partnerships with express delivery firms in the country.

“PAL is now a cargo airline in our own right. We will continue to develop new all-cargo markets – removing dependence on passenger traffic as a single revenue stream,” Ng earlier said.
https://www.philstar.com/business/2022/04/26/2176701/pal-ready-take-last-mile-cargo-delivery

You can't project that claim with a neo. A dense plane always has issues with cargo capacity, and thus range. That is basic aeronautical math. And math said B78X is miles better than A339.

And "nothing" is a decision that would lead them to mediocrity, which also lead to the same thing, a confirmation, that they are indeed bench warmers.

I can see two things going for the Neo, namely:

1) the high-density model is making them money today. They’re profitable today. It’s the safe option wherein they won’t have to worry about capex, and

2) Airbus has always been aggressive in dangling a good deal in front of PAL. RSA wanted 787s, he got A333s. Then they wanted 789s for ULH but they got A350s. Now they want the 78X. Will Airbus counter with an offer that PAL can’t refuse?

[Evodesire]

Solblanc wrote

I can see two things going for the Neo, namely:

1) the high-density model is making them money today. They’re profitable today. It’s the safe option wherein they won’t have to worry about capex, and

2) Airbus has always been aggressive in dangling a good deal in front of PAL. RSA wanted 787s, he got A333s. Then they wanted 789s for ULH but they got A350s. Now they want the 78X. Will Airbus counter with an offer that PAL can’t refuse?

I see two things happening. Either PAL gets both A339s and 789s, or 78Xs and A359s. I highly doubt that PAL will go for an all-Airbus fleet. They are firm that the A35K will be their largest aircraft. Next Boeing in-line is the 787, which even has a greater probability than the MAX. Political reasons too, we can't discount that.

That is, if they stop being nonchalant about the current competitive environment of the aviation industry, which is far from what it was in 1998.

[chowpau]

Evodesire wrote

I see two things happening. Either PAL gets both A339s and 789s, or 78Xs and A359s. I highly doubt that PAL will go for an all-Airbus fleet. They are firm that the A35K will be their largest aircraft. Next Boeing in-line is the 787, which even has a greater probability than the MAX. Political reasons too, we can't discount that.

That is, if they stop being nonchalant about the current competitive environment of the aviation industry, which is far from what it was in 1998.

My guess PAL will get A339 and B789... A339 can be utilized for ME and Australia while the B789 for thin long haul routes where routes that is too large for A35K

[Arianespace]

Solblanc wrote

2) Airbus has always been aggressive in dangling a good deal in front of PAL. RSA wanted 787s, he got A333s. Then they wanted 789s for ULH but they got A350s. Now they want the 78X. Will Airbus counter with an offer that PAL can’t refuse?

This is a wrong premise. RSA got the A333 because Boeing could deliver the B787 only after 3 years of wait, while Airbus delivers in 1 year. That is the story why SMC got the 333. Straight from the horses mouth that is. It would have been a mixed 789s and 78x fleet.

A350 was an afterthought of not having the 787. This could have been the next SMC order in 2015 but RSA and LCT had falling out. Had it been bought, LT group would have difficulty buying out SMC. But PAL nevertheless acquired the 359 a year later after the split, while 35K is solely JJB decision in 2018. So the 35k is not decided by the new executive or the previous ones, but a product of a decision made 5 years ago.

[Arianespace]

Evodesire wrote

I see two things happening. Either PAL gets both A339s and 789s, or 78Xs and A359s. I highly doubt that PAL will go for an all-Airbus fleet. They are firm that the A35K will be their largest aircraft. Next Boeing in-line is the 787, which even has a greater probability than the MAX. Political reasons too, we can't discount that.

As was said before, PAL never had a single engine supplier for its narrow and wide body fleet since its modern history. It always operates on two engine manufacturer, ie GE and CFM, GE and RR, IAE and PW. And that arrangement already worked magic for them as they are not particularly affected with the PW & RR issue, having a diversified engine fleet.

That is exactly the reason why Boeing propose the alternative, because they are powered by alternative LEAP and GE engines.

If they pursue such arrangement of ordering the neo, it would be the first time in its history that PAL departs from such practice and operates an all RR wide body and PW narrow body fleet.

[Evodesire]

However, PAL also has to consider how the market will respond to a MAX order. While the move can give PAL more engine redundancy, the question is how will the market respond. Unless PAL orders A320Ns with LEAP engines.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13526083/Half-travelers-avoiding-Boeing-planes-wake-safety-incidents.html

[airline_builder]

Arianespace wrote

Solblanc wrote

2) Airbus has always been aggressive in dangling a good deal in front of PAL. RSA wanted 787s, he got A333s. Then they wanted 789s for ULH but they got A350s. Now they want the 78X. Will Airbus counter with an offer that PAL can’t refuse?

This is a wrong premise. RSA got the A333 because Boeing could deliver the B787 only after 3 years of wait, while Airbus delivers in 1 year. That is the story why SMC got the 333. Straight from the horses mouth that is. It would have been a mixed 789s and 78x fleet.

A350 was an afterthought of not having the 787. This could have been the next SMC order in 2015 but RSA and LCT had falling out. Had it been bought, LT group would have difficulty buying out SMC. But PAL nevertheless acquired the 359 a year later after the split, while 35K is solely JJB decision in 2018. So the 35k is not decided by the new executive or the previous ones, but a product of a decision made 5 years ago.

It is industry knowledge that Airbus is allegedly excellent at "greasing" or giving extra ordinary perks to decently put it to whoever is designated to affix the signature of agreement to purchase.....thus their impressive selling skills and sales when neck and neck with Boeing for an airline.

For whatever grease - it is always an easy road for them when dealing in the Philippines (yes from an extremely reliable source as well)