Airlines In The Philippines III

[Arianespace]

PAL still owns rights to it. They can't just use it now due to lease commitments with DLH. Just like the KLM DC-8, the B747s, A340s and A330s, its coming back soon.

[JNC03]

Thats why they will just get 78Xs instead of 789s because they will get it back soon I see

[PAL 747]

I'm not sure if it was this forum or elsewhere, but I remember reading years ago a post that the LHR flight may be light on passengers; but was full of cargo. There was so much cargo revenue that it made the LHR flight profitable. PAL would have ended London maybe after 2 years (like the Delhi service), but only suspended it because of the Ukraine war.

Happy Friday everyone!

[JNC03]

In an article by Simple Flying about the El Al Boeing 737max order Boeing mentioned this

When Brian West, Boeing's chief financial officer (CFO) and Executive Vice President of Finance, spoke during the Bank of Americaals Conference on March 20, he stated that the manufacturer had Global Industri sold out the 737 and 787 programs through 2028. As a result, Boeing was now quoting customers for deliveries in 2029 and 2030.


So PAL will get them from lessors which is some of them have stakes to the airline due to the equity swap

[airline_builder]

JNC03 wrote

In an article by Simple Flying about the El Al Boeing 737max order Boeing mentioned this

When Brian West, Boeing's chief financial officer (CFO) and Executive Vice President of Finance, spoke during the Bank of Americaals Conference on March 20, he stated that the manufacturer had Global Industri sold out the 737 and 787 programs through 2028. As a result, Boeing was now quoting customers for deliveries in 2029 and 2030.


So PAL will get them from lessors which is some of them have stakes to the airline due to the equity swap

As I mentioned on an earlier post.......with PAL and its leadership being extremely calculated for reasons other than mathematically, they would end up taking a meager number of planes through leasing.

[JNC03]

As per research there are 10 airframes for the 787-10 with unidentified customers and around 20+ from Air Lease Corporation with no customer as of now.

Philippine Airlines can take 78X from ALC and the rest will be delivered from 2029 onwards directly from
Boeing

[Arianespace]

JNC03 wrote

airline_builder wrote

As I mentioned on an earlier post.......with PAL and its leadership being extremely calculated for reasons other than mathematically, they would end up taking a meager number of planes through leasing.

Leasing is actually more expensive than bank financing. PAL really doesn't have much choice when their funds are limited.

[airline_builder]

Arianespace wrote

JNC03 wrote

airline_builder wrote

As I mentioned on an earlier post.......with PAL and its leadership being extremely calculated for reasons other than mathematically, they would end up taking a meager number of planes through leasing.

Leasing is actually more expensive than bank financing. PAL really doesn't have much choice when their funds are limited.

Totally agree. Both are options for PAL given that they seemed to have already missed the train on the order deals unless their finances are projected to the 2030s ability to release or afford, then that is perhaps the time we will be seeing newer planes for PAL apart from the A35K

For now - yes, I get it, business basic equation - ensure revenue will be enough to suffice operations with alotted savings and divideneds for the shareholders - but hopely they can really bring the "beho" mindset to an extreme minimum because their planes are extremely dirty inside, the feel of not just old but worn out, and the inflight features are basically not competitive anymore, the food? Well even on business class it is at par with that of airlines like biman, pakistan, and afghan.

[Evodesire]

As per a PAL executive, reason why they cannot be too aggressive is because they don't want a repeat of what happened in 1997. While I do agree also, but being too conservative is also the one killing them slowly, where you see Cebu Pacific and other airlines really build their fleet and capacity, while offering better products. That "PAL is PAL" mentality has to go. Their being too conservative and slow approach also has to go.

[Solblanc]

Evodesire wrote

As per a PAL executive, reason why they cannot be too aggressive is because they don't want a repeat of what happened in 1997. While I do agree also, but being too conservative is also the one killing them slowly, where you see Cebu Pacific and other airlines really build their fleet and capacity, while offering better products. That "PAL is PAL" mentality has to go. Their being too conservative and slow approach also has to go.

They don’t have to be aggressive. If they want to plan conservatively, that’s perfectly fine, but they have to make decisions.

The last four 77Ws are less than 10 years old and can totally be refurbished when the A35Ks come online. They can choose to make a better high-density product to send to the Middle East, or they can give them a premium product to send to Australia and upgauge their services there. That can buy them time.

But even if they do go down that route, they still have to place orders soon.

[Arianespace]

1997 was a result of currency devaluation doubling the amount of their loan fortfolio, nothing to do with PAL management at all. Of course the airline was plagued with remnants of government bureaucracy aggravating its situation.

2021 was not also the fault of the airline or its executives. Decision to grow was with the BOD and it was late to the party, admittedly. Sad to say Stan is just a titular figurehead. I like GSM. Tough and basically has spine. They have falling out with BOD. It did cost him his head eventually but look where his airline is now.

Solblanc wrote

The last four 77Ws are less than 10 years old and can totally be refurbished when the A35Ks come online. They can choose to make a better high-density product to send to the Middle East, or they can give them a premium product to send to Australia and upgauge their services there. That can buy them time.

But even if they do go down that route, they still have to place orders soon.

Speaking about upgraded services, China Airlines has started upgrading its eight year old A350-900 fleet to stay competitive. PAL could do the same. Sadly, managers fear losing their heads. And that's a shame. Look at CEB, Lance gave its hand to true blooded professionals. Until PAL does the same, they will lose more opportunities.

[JNC03]

If that is the case good thing they agreed to refurb the cabins of A321ceos.

The times I see PAL is getting notable changes is when A359 and A321neo arrived during the time of Jaime Bautista. On that same time they also explored joining an airline alliance and earned 4 star rating. And after he retire GSM comes in and navigated the airline during the pandemic. If I remember it right I think PAL decided as early as 2019 or early 2020 about the A350-1000 which is the time GSB I think.

To be fair pandemic brought the industry down but as it recovers again we can see how Cebu Pacific survived by having talented people onboard and a good investor too. Who can I imagine they will order 100+ aircrafts in the next few weeks from now after pandemic and the current PW issue. One executive of Cebu Pacific said that their order is “sakto lang” and its not too much for them because of their estimated growth in the next few years.

But for PAL I don't see anything notable like the things I saw back then. Yes they have younger people onboard the management but there are little to no notable changes yet. What I see now is just the continuation of the delayed plans of the airlines such as ordering the A35K. They have the upper hand because they are the flag carrier, they can partner with the government to negotiate slots or other things with other countries. I hope they can reverse some things to make their airline great again like before.

[Arianespace]

True. Continuation of delayed plans. Some of that conceived at the time of JJB. The 321 for example was meant for GAP, that is the reason why they are basic. The 21n with IFE for PAL. The delayed 13 neo was meant for PAL with this amenity, now flying mostly to Japan:



It was supposed to arrive in 2019. Now PAL is using the basic 321 because they have no plane to fly when traffic bloom like mushrooms. And they do an afterthought decision to upgrade interiors to fix their inadequacy. So you saw this story,

PAL will also be reconfiguring 18 A321ceo aircraft.

Out of 22 planes they are upgrading 18 of the A321, which they should have done when they were procured in the first place. An example of JJB era decision making. A continuation of delayed plans.

Why 18 only? The 4 remains with GAP for rotations in major cities. They all seat 199.  

In the same press event, PAL officer-in-charge executive vice president and general counsel Carlos Luis Fernandez mentioned that the company is investing in 22 new aircraft (9-35k, 13-21n) set for delivery from 2025 to 2029.
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1221854

Another continuation of very much delayed plans.

[Arianespace]

Solblanc wrote

The last four 77Ws are less than 10 years old and can totally be refurbished when the A35Ks come online. They can choose to make a better high-density product to send to the Middle East, or they can give them a premium product to send to Australia and upgauge their services there. That can buy them time.

On the bright side, PAL executive told me they do have that thought, taking a cue with their own 744s before, and CX upgrading their 77w for much delayed 77x deliveries. And they are very much aware of the Boeing delays. Only the 333 refurb was approved. No decision has been made on the 77w yet. IF ever, they still need agreement with lessors for contract amendments. Perhaps waiting for financial results this year, to pay for it. Otherwise they end up opting for more 35k, as they are 1-1 replacements.

[JNC03]

They should add A35K even they will refurb some 77Ws. So they can secure delivery slots once those 77Ws gets old already because some airlines are hoarding planes particularly Indian carriers

PAL is not usually announce if they sent RFP to aircraft manufacturers. they are just saying what aircafts they are interested just like what Stanley did last year mentioning 787, A359 and A330neo

[Evodesire]

Arianespace wrote

Speaking about upgraded services, China Airlines has started upgrading its eight year old A350-900 fleet to stay competitive. PAL could do the same. Sadly, managers fear losing their heads. And that's a shame. Look at CEB, Lance gave its hand to true blooded professionals. Until PAL does the same, they will lose more opportunities.

As long as kapitan keeps shelling out money for PAL, the family will always stick their noses in. Sad reality.

Anyway, they better make decisions soon on their fleet plan. Their A330s will remain as is, where those with SMC interiors won't be refurbished anymore, unlike the A321ceos. Does this mean they will go soon?

[Arianespace]

The SMC 368 seater 333 (876x) are all leases, which normally expire on the 12th year, or about 3 years from now, so they are now in their twilight, while the 878x which LT bought from SMC are mostly PAL planes now. The rest of the leases were let go during C11. Their recent configuration of 81 and 83 signifies they will be with the carrier for 6 more years, translating to about 16 years of service until scrapped. Same time frame happens with the original, circa 1997 planes. Just about right in 2030 when B78x becomes available. But for the ones expiring in 2027, there are lessors to talk to, like this post

JNC03 wrote

As per research there are 10 airframes for the 787-10 with unidentified customers and around 20+ from Air Lease Corporation with no customer as of now.

Philippine Airlines can take 78X from ALC and the rest will be delivered from 2029 onwards directly from
Boeing

They are talking now with the lessors for the slot.

As I was saying before, taking leases of new planes instead of financing order is more expensive for the airline, but its better if you can't get a plane. If you recall, the first two 77w were originally GECAS planes (6n). There was precedent to similar deal before.

[JNC03]

Will they directly get 739M from Boeing?

I think they have some NTUs

[oninBadz]

Are those B737Max9 for GAP or some will be assigned to main line PR? What about Embraer E2 will there be some Philippine operator interested?

[Arianespace]

Here is the take between 39M and 20N. The neo appears to be cheaper than max but the max is bigger than the neo. At least on the comparison that we are talking about. Seats more people too!

The operating and maintenance cost of the max however was way ahead of the neo in short haul routes which GAP incidentally is serving (domestic). The extra cargo capacity is merely icing on the cake. And that is where airline notices now. Because at the end of the day you always look at your wallet. Based on specific operational requirements and market conditions GAP operates, 39M is the best plane for them to get.

The Boeing 737 MAX excels in fuel efficiency and operational costs, making it an attractive option for GAP because they operate exclusively on short-haul routes. A flight with less than 3 hours of travel time, or a route roughly equivalent from Laoag to General Santos.

The 120-140 seater E2 is meant as a bigger sibling for the Q400s with no baggage restrictions, able to fly BSO, WNP, IAO and other similarly sized airports, and answer to turboprop ban at NAIA soon.

Recently, Embraer went to South Korea in May 2023 to demonstrate landing and take-off performance of E2 jet, and this is what the report said,

Embraer has showcased its E190-E2 model’s ability to conduct a short runway landing during a demonstration flight in South Korea.

The simulated short runway landing took place over a distance of 1,066m and highlighted the plane’s place as the only narrowbody aircraft that can access a 1,200m runway in all conditions according to Embraer.

Carrying over 80 passengers and holding enough fuel to make an onward journey to Seoul, the aircraft conducted the landing at Pohang Airport in order to showcase its ability to land at the upcoming runway at nearby Ulleungdo Airport.

The new airport, which is scheduled for completion by 2025, will have a 1,200m runway and is expected to cater for 50-seat aircraft, though Embraer’s demonstration has shown the company’s capacity to utilise the runway with larger planes.
https://www.airport-technology.com/news/embraer-short-runway-landing/

If it fits BSO, it fits anywhere else in the Philippines.