Airlines In The Philippines III

[Arianespace]

WNP is actually good example where GAP used to fly from MNL. Now no more. They don't even bother reinstating it.

[filipinoavgeek]

Wasn't there a plan to build a new longer runway for WNP that faced away from Mt. Iriga and would allow the airport to handle jets? Whatever happened to that?

[Arianespace]

Yes. There was. Its still there, on going implementation. The project is similar to Busuanga, and Camiguin. It begins with runway re-orientation to accommodate the bus according to international standard airport specifications, and runways cannot be re-oriented without acquiring the adjacent land to put it. All 134 hectares of them. And some farmer lot owners refused to sell this land to government, and for which reason is in court for mandatory expropriation. The case is similar to Narita airport if your familiar with it.

The condition to start construction of runway is premised on the transfer of ownership to the land where runway is gonna be build. Whole of them. That is still to be done, and according to CAA court still has to resolve that issue with finality. An initial budget outlay of 1.2 billion pesos was allocated for runway construction, and will not be tendered until completion of site acquisition, which is not gonna happen this year or the next. DOTr request from DBM for another 3 billion WNP capital outlay for 2025 was denied in the NEP for the same reason.

With the way things are going, coupled with a slow demand, you wont see this 8b airport project in the next 15 years or so. It would be overtaken by Busuanga and Siargao. Statistically speaking, they already are.

[Solblanc]

About the E190… while it can make a few turboprop routes work, it has the range to open up new international routes for MNL, CRK, and CEB. Maybe even SGY. If they do decide to get them Embraers, it would be very versatile. They can make ports like HAN and SGN double-daily to connect with their US services. They can even start routes like VTE or REP. They can experiment with the Indian market again with low-cost 5th freedom from BKK. Perhaps they can even explore the likes of DRW or return to Chinese cities where there is still some demand. They can kill several birds with one stone with such a versatile aircraft that is already available now. If they want to stop losing market share to 5J, this is low—hanging fruit

[Arianespace]

My thoughts exactly. But neither of us is Stan or BOD. Pilot as he is I think he similarly thought about it but shutdown just the same by BOD.

[filipinoavgeek]

I'm actually curious: given that the A220 is selling better than the E2, and the A220 is wider than the E2 and thus probably more comfortable, what are the advantages of the E2 over the A220? On one hand, Scoot uses the E2 and even sends them to Davao now. On the other hand you have airBaltic with its all A220 fleet sending planes to as far as the Middle East on those babies. I imagine with PH being an Airbus-dominated market, they'd consider the A220 more than the E2.

[Solblanc]

filipinoavgeek wrote

I'm actually curious: given that the A220 is selling better than the E2, and the A220 is wider than the E2 and thus probably more comfortable, what are the advantages of the E2 over the A220? On one hand, Scoot uses the E2 and even sends them to Davao now. On the other hand you have airBaltic with its all A220 fleet sending planes to as far as the Middle East on those babies. I imagine with PH being an Airbus-dominated market, they'd consider the A220 more than the E2.

It’s down to availability. A220 has a long backlog. You can get the E2 practically right away.

[Arianespace]

It has more to do with domestic airport infrastructure, as it was proposed to take over the turboprop routes from MNL. Its not about which is the better plane, but which plane is capable to land at those airports with sufficient fuel to return back to base. The 220 is not on that list. My guess is BOD could have favored the latter if it were a capable plane. Thing is, it is just too heavy for the likes of BCO, or WNP.

[Evodesire]

Got news that the feud between Stan and BOD continues to grow. But Stan has a strong backing from the pilots. I think everyone in PAL are convinced that a massive refleeting program is the only solution to their current problems but BOD would rather remain mediocre and merely in "survival mode".

No wonder BOD contradicts Stan's words and vice versa.

[Solblanc]

Evodesire wrote

Got news that the feud between Stan and BOD continues to grow. But Stan has a strong backing from the pilots. I think everyone in PAL are convinced that a massive refleeting program is the only solution to their current problems but BOD would rather remain mediocre and merely in "survival mode".

No wonder BOD contradicts Stan's words and vice versa.

Are they surviving, though? They made a tiny profit, sure, but their market share is dwindling.

They make money on point to point Manila flights and the only FSC domestic network out of MNL that can interline with other international carriers.

But they’re getting competition on their bread and butter routes. Our Filipino communities in the USA and Canada will also have their own travel patterns outside of visiting MNL, and they’ll have points and status preferences of their own. They’ll prefer to go on a carrier with an alliance, and now UA and AC are gonna get the highest yielding traffic by default.

Their domestic network, which is already smaller than 5Js, will struggle even more, as their equipment really only has so much life left in them. And 5J is running circles around them connecting CRK, CEB, ILO, and DVO to international points. All that traffic outside of MNL they are practically ignoring.

At the end of the day, even if PAL survives short-term, they don’t seem to have a long-term vision to be any better. Other carriers are already capitalizing on their weaknesses. In the long-term, they will wither away slowly.

[Evodesire]

Solblanc wrote

At the end of the day, even if PAL survives short-term, they don’t seem to have a long-term vision to be any better. Other carriers are already capitalizing on their weaknesses. In the long-term, they will wither away slowly.

Exactly my thoughts! They are going to be another Alitalia story unless the government takes over in the name of national pride. CEB knows PAL's weakness. They are too smart not to know these things. They have 6 more A330neos coming in and they are looking for routes for those planes. More ME flights are now on their radars with hopes of beating PAL this time given their interconnectivity to other places in the Philippines.

And it seems like the PAL group has given up taking care of their domestic. I mean how can PAL compete now with 5J in domestic? You have high fares served by old A320s from PAL versus low fares served by brand new NEOs from 5J. 180 seats on PR/2P's A320s versus 236 on 5J's A321neos.

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

From the other forum:

"PAL is going to have flights to Chicago in 2026. Then Houston in 2027.

PAL is going to start receiving A350-1000 in late 2025. Yea. No more 2-3-2 business seats. Purser told me 1-2-1 seats. Initial order was for 6 A350. I think they upgraded to a total of 9. Guessing that the new planes will start arriving every four months to obtain the first six planes."

[Arianespace]

Of course we already know that. Perks of being a reader of this forum.

The only question left is the timeline which according to our calculations is far fetch. How come?

Well, there is still no decision to retrofit the 77w just yet. So we are assuming something that doesn't necessarily come. If they are not retrofitted then certainly they are going when leases expire. And expirations are timed according to the 35k arrivals. Notwithstanding Stan pronouncement, they are actually 1-1 replacements.

So would they come? Perhaps, in time. But not the time that you mentioned. Just to give you an example, SEA was planned to be launch in 2016. It took them 8 years to do that. CDG, AMS, and FCO was planned in 2012. It has yet to see the launch date.

[Solblanc]

It’s funny how other airlines have looked at the wide body shortage and are retrofitting their 77Ws accordingly while PAL couldn’t even replace the early angle-flat seats into lie-flat seats. In addition to the product mismatch, you also have seat count mismatch with the Garuda frames, which I can imagine has translated into nasty surprises when a frame goes tech. Imagine being downgraded coz the new biz cabin is smaller or offloaded because the seat counts are different.

Most airlines retrofit their cabins and give it a life of around 5-8 years before a refresh. When it comes to PAL’s bread and butter LAX/SFO US routes, they just stuck to their seats for more than a decade. And yet for some reason they can afford to retrofit their A330s several times over based on their whims. Like, how is it that easy to change an A330’s cabin from LCC to premium to LCC when simply replacing the angle-flat seats on the 77W is such a chore?

I don’t understand this airline’s decision making process at all. They try to save money and yet they make weird spending decisions.

But as inconsistent as they are, they are consistent in doing the most inconvenient thing for themselves and for passengers. I predict that they won’t retrofit those 77Ws and extend their leases anyway when they see that they can’t really afford to let any more planes go.

[Arianespace]

Good predictions. Its not shocking at all.

Meanwhile, a similar age 77w's of CPA has unveiled the newly retrofitted cabin for North America, knowing the 779s deliveries are delayed for another 6 years.



Meanwhile, Garuda's 77w is actually tailored to fit YVR market. High capacity. But not for long.

[cosmicarcher]

I pop in here once in a while and I find everyone's opinion on the topic really a fun read and very informative, especially with PH related developments.

While the frustrations with PAL raised by many in this forum are valid.  I think things will just get better from here.  Right?  Some key points:  Transpacific flights appear to be stabilizing, ex. PR112/113 no longer has to use A330.  PR104/105 does not get cancelled randomly.  Upgrade of 18 A321 cabin are imminent.  The Wamos damp lease ends in January (thank goodness for that!), just to name a few.

I also think the entry of Air Canada, United, and Delta (soon!) does not necessarily cut into PAL's pie.  Sure, they may feel some heat because of competition.  But I think it's the East Asian carriers or the passengers who go for one-stop flights to/from Manila maybe affected by these new flights (ex. Eva, JAL, ANA, etc.).  I think there is enough passengers between US and PH that warrants non-stop flights.  

What I'd like to see, as many of you have already mentioned, is for PAL to upgrade the Mabuhay Class cabin and introduce the Premium Economy seats across all their wide-bodies ... OR at least transpac routes.  There is a need to standardize cabin experience, regardless if you're on B777 or A350.  I really feel like there are now much more travellers to/from the Philippines who can afford premium cabins.

Oh also which just reminds me... The reaction of some here when CebuPac announced their massive aircraft order reminded me back in the day when AirAsia ordered their 200 planes.  Everyone was wondering what is going to happen with Malaysia Airlines and fearing its survival.  Fast forward to now... MH is still there.  At the end of the day AirAsia and MH has different business model... similar to CebuPac and PAL.  Oh and PAL already said they'll make an announcement late next year regarding refleeting program.  We know PAL management move at glacial pace but what can we do?  Just wait and see, sit back, relax and enjoy the flight.

Advance Merry Christmas to all in this forum!  

[Solblanc]

Let’s also just wait and see the numbers. There has been so much growth in the Philippine market. How much of that growth went to PAL?