Airlines In The Philippines III

[Evodesire]

PAL's current problems with lack of aircraft, stronger competition, and negative passenger feedback are a result of their choices and decisions. I am sure that they knew Manila travel traffic would be growing exponentially. They know that Cebu Pacific got good funding from Indigo. They know that their other competitors are state-owned. They know that US airlines have been dying to fly to Manila, especially now that they know PAL's weakness. And yet, PAL BOD chose to remain conservative and resist change. The Tans can cry all day saying that they are alone in this battle while other carriers have financial backing, but they cannot blame anyone but themselves. The PAL BOD chose to just stay mum and believe that "PAL is PAL", instead of finding ways of beating the competition even in the early rounds. Now its all taking a toll on them.

Then when the fire has burned halfway, they scramble for water. In the battlefield, winning is winning, regardless of who your opponents or enemies are.

And oh, that PAL BS "we are the Philippines" and "national flag carrier", it seems like CEB is somehow being the real "flag carrier" of the country, connecting our islands, promoting tourism, improving their product even if they are an LCC, and flying more Filipinos.

I can't wait for CEB to fly to DMM too.

[ewh1]

Everytime I see PAL on LinkedIn, I see them hyping their PAL Multiversity and their innovation initatives to have more of that startup/design thinking culture within.

To give them the benefit of the doubt, maybe they are focusing on their internals. Trying to think out of the box on their capabilities and processes and push for more digitization and introducing a more user oriented  digital organization before any aggressive expansion begins but, perhaps not.

At this point, I'm just going to give the airline the benefit of the doubt and assume that they are trying to improve the sustainability of the business before launching full speed with expansion plans in like 5 years? They seem like they want to trim down liabilities at all costs. I get the feeling the family is relnctant to invest anymore money until they can get recoup money that they had to spend during COVID. But who knows!


One things for sure though. I'll be flying the new Air Canada route, especially since my benefits will make my flights on AC a lot more lucrative

[Evodesire]

The root problem of PAL is simply its reactive and conservative way of running things. The Tans know the competition well, yet they shun change. Digitalization has been around since pre-COVID times, which CEB highly invested in, yet the Tans chose to continue using "pad paper" when others were already using "tablets." They could have invested also on that. Now, everything has caught up.

And now, the stark reality. PAL's competition is already slowly eating them up. They are slowly losing their "bread and butter" routes, and yet, they choose to remain reactive and conservative.

If only they let go of their pride, and their reactive, conservative, and aristocratic way of running PAL, all else will follow. From being able to get good financial backing from partners, getting good credit ratings from lessors, etc.

[JNC03]

Alaska Airlines looking to launch flights to Manila from Seattle via Hawaiian Airlines

[Arianespace]

For a start, GAP used to lord CEB over intra-Mindanao network, ie CGY, DVO, and ZAM. Now they are completely gone. Siargao is recently lost in DVO. It will lose ILO next month from GES, and PAG from MNL. Trunkline CEB-DVO is running Airbus against GAP turboprop. Hindi makatarungan. It would have been great if its just ATR and DHC, but jets is lording them over.

[seven13]

JNC03 wrote

Alaska Airlines looking to launch flights to Manila from Seattle via Hawaiian Airlines

I thought it's SEANRT? saw the news they intend to have 12 asian destinations by 2030

[JNC03]

The most viable will be

SEA-HNL Alaska
HNL-MNL Hawaiian

If direct it will be via the 787 from Hawaiian

They said that they will develop seperate livery for their intl flight after merging

[Solblanc]

JNC03 wrote

The most viable will be

SEA-HNL Alaska
HNL-MNL Hawaiian

If direct it will be via the 787 from Hawaiian

They said that they will develop seperate livery for their intl flight after merging

HA was forced off HNL-MNL in the past. However, they can now try CRK. Most of their passengers are heading to Ilocos anyway, and CRK is much more convenient to greater Ilocandia. Plus there’s gonna be good 5J domestic feed there.

[Arianespace]

To give one clear example that BOD is in control of PAL and not the CEO, or COO

PAL asked to resume Baguio-Cebu flights

Mayor Benjamin Magalong said on Dec. 2 that he has spoken to the president of Philippine Air Lines (PAL) regarding the possibility of resuming the airlines' Baguio to Cebu and vice versa commercial flights at Loakan Airport.

However, Magalong said he was told that his request must first be discussed by the company's board of directors.

Magalong said he is still trying to convince the PAL board on the resumption of the commercial flights.
https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/12/12/regions/pal-asked-to-resume-baguio-cebu-flights/2020283

I'm sure Magalong is not a member of this forum or a reader perhaps. But he knows what he is talking about. So are we.

[filipinoavgeek]

Weren't the flights suspended due to poor loads? If that's the case then I'm not sure if he can do anything about it unless Baguio or Benguet is willing to subsidize the flights and keep them around regardless of loads.

[Arianespace]

It was. Baguio was LGU subsidized route. Same as flight to Laoag. It would have worked if tickets were reasonable. If CEB can make a miniscule market like CGM worked, I can't understand why BAG can't. Magalong did admit that they were operating profitably during peak travel season, and not on the lean ones. Anyway, that is not the point I was trying to make.

The point of the post was that BOD was in control of PAL and not the CEO/COO. It was supposed to be an executive action, ie route planning, but its not. As he was over-ridden again.

[filipinoavgeek]

So basically, had Stanley had his way, CEB-BAG would not have been dropped?

[Arianespace]

Yes. As "missionary" route, it would have been good PR for PAL. After all, BAG was their first destination. LT would have agreed. But BOD is in control now, and it has other things in mind, like better margin.

[Arianespace]

As I was saying,

Cebu Pacific targets 26% capacity increase

Cebu Pacific anticipates a strong finish for 2024 backed by a 34-percent increase in total systemwide seats, which it said had reached nearly 3 million as of December compared to 2.3 million in January.

The total systemwide flight count was also said to have risen 29 percent to 16,000 from 12,000 over the same period.
https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/12/13/business/top-business/cebu-pacific-targets-26-capacity-increase/2021032

See

[JNC03]

With the turboprop ban being implemented next year, what will the airlines do to stay in Manila if they want to?

What do you think?

[romantic_guy08]

With 82 back from maintenance in AMM... will 77 finally leave the fleet or do they intend to extend her length of service?

[Solblanc]

There might be some intervention from congressmen and LGUs on the turboprop ban. Disconnecting certain towns from Manila and the main air hub will be devastating economically for some destinations.

The articles said a 30-70% reduction and not necessarily an outright ban. Makes one think that airlines will be allowed limited turboprop flights to destinations that need it, with all other spillover traffic sent to other airports.

For the airlines, they have several options on the table. Embraers are a good way to avoid the ban, although that requires capital. But while some turboprop traffic will go indeed to CRK or SGY, I see CEB being the big winner here. It might be more convenient for Manileños and Makatizens to just fly a one-stop itinerary via Cebu as opposed to trekking to CRK or SGY, especially since the NSCR and the SGY access road to Cavitex aren’t available yet.

[Arianespace]

JNC03 wrote

With the turboprop ban being implemented next year, what will the airlines do to stay in Manila if they want to?

What do you think?

We did discuss this before quite intensively in the same thread, and the reason why airlines are considering the baby jets.

Major decision for consideration was the airport infrastructure. That is why I cited BSO before. And there was of course USO, and IAO. Of the two baby jets, only the E-190 is eligible to fly on these airports.

CEB has made decision to upgrade ATR with A320. On some route they already did. While the rest would have to move to SGL. Balesin already made it their home. I'm sure GAP would follow. RLB has moved to CRK.

PAL is considering E2 but cannot make a business case out of it currently. There are only handful of airports they can fly to as Q4 replacements out of MNL. Considering they are giving up PAG (CYZ was reinstated replacing PAG) and other turboprop routes goes to show they cannot fill this bigger plane where turboprops fly. The E2 has 10 more comfortable seats than the Q4. CEB is literally eating them alive, so to speak. Perhaps not getting the logic why passengers opt for the jet instead of riding the props. Either Stan has not fully grasps this or the BOD would.

Meanwhile,



Had Tugade's plan not been overrun by covid, these should have been the bus to ride.



Now it seems it is still heading in that direction.

[Arianespace]

I haven't heard decision to retrofit existing 77w. If it were to happen, 77 should have an extended 6 years of life. Its lease was already extended once. Since they are GECAS pairs along with 76, I doubt it would stay.

Originally they were negotiating with lessors for 4 77ws from Garuda remember? Only 2 were taken. Both coming late. With 2 35K coming in 12 months from now, also late, I'm not sure the other two would still be taken. But who knows? I still could be mistaken.

Should retrofit decision comes, more likely the 74 and 75 will be its beneficiary since it is a PAL owned plane, along with the younger ones. I'm pretty sure they are considering it now. Would be good addition to Australia or Middle East flight as considered by Solblanc. It originally did flew Australia before.

Unless, PAL has other things in mind, like ordering the new widebody fleet for ME and OZ.

[romantic_guy08]

one destination that will be most impacted by the move of the turboprops is WNP...

Its not a leisure destination and I think there is heavy traffic on that route, just that it seems WNP still cant handle jets...