Airlines In The Philippines II

[AnonBoy]

On a separate note, LHR is axed for now. The last flight leaving end of the month

[Evodesire]

Got info from the grapevine that PAL's MNL-LHR route was doing well, even did better than MNL-LAX. This was presented by the PAL LHR station to the current VP Commercial. However, VP Commercial still decided to kill it despite the favorable numbers presented by the LHR station. Last flight is March 29.

Interesting to see PAL's transformation under this younger set of leaders headed by LT3. Based on the reports, the goal is to go for a more "youthful" image and to do away with that traditional 80s thing. They plan to go full digital, to adapt to the time.

Lets see how things will go. For as long as its not there, then its not there.

[Arianespace]

As was announced earlier, the Russian depositary bank was indeed frozen, with a caveat of sanction from the US and UK if they secure it thru China. PAL had no choice but to drop LHR temporarily which traverses Russian Airspace. YYZ and JFK suffers same fate too as they also now stops at YVR.

[Arianespace]

Interesting thoughts about SMC fleet planning. It also introduces the cattle class A330s to PAL.

What is good about fleet planning is that they are valid only for 5 years. PAL Airbus orders in 2012 was amended in 2016 and again in 2021. What they thought should work then may not work now. We might also see a different view 5 years from now. We could potentially see an all Boeing wide-body. They have young people now. Impulsive as they are with their age, I hope they see the overview better. But I love the enthusiasm for them to be on the top 3. Right now though, I think they should consider more their finances than their illusions of grandeur. Garuda was a great airline until it feel to the ground.

[Eurest]

So where do the A359 fly with T-stops for JFK/YYZ & no more LHR?
Pragmatic choice scrapping LHR, competing against ME3 for Euro routes would really need the "Premium carrier" marketing, plus Brexit diminished LHR's value to probably making TLV to EU more practical (LY codeshare with LY getting MNL onwards to a mix of select ASEAN/PH )

From their fleet selection upon downsizing, I am inferring:
Projecting an 80% load factor for long-haul with stable yields or a minimal increase
A capacity gap to medium-haul, regional and domestic with yields dipping further (thus the Toulouse response)
I don't think we'll hear news about RFP's until 2024, deals by 2026 and new arrivals by 2028 (except for those already on order)

Anyways, the recently concluded (has it really) CEPA between the PH and UAE seems to be spooking the US3
There is suspicion that EY has accepted its fate among the ME3 and will not compete but go status quo
And the EAG may start a new airline in the PH instead (full foreign ownership now allowed right?)
CX and SQ are the only established premium carriers in the region
but they only see SQ as the competitor as CX isn't an ASEAN carrier and the feeling is CCP might diminish CX as part of HK control (CX being a huge symbol of HK's westernism)
They see similarities with geo positioning:
> Medium haul range to premium market (EU for ME3 vs ANZ for PH)
> Short-haul for population dense market (East Asia for ME vs ASEAN&China for PH)
> LH to ULH for US market
Fleet composition and timing the arrival banks will be the same
Bulacan is highly likely, investment potential exists
Abu Dhabi is flush with cash esp with oil prices & has political capital to get PH-US open skies
AZ & JU can handle smaller Europe markets
VA can take unused OZ side seats to PH
So anyone intimate with the UAE-PH Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement?
Boeing & Airbus might very much love a new Asian carrier fueled by ME oil money

UA buying & NH increasing its stake in PR might be strategic esp for UA's Pacific US territories
That said, BA&AA would make better co-owners
IAG needs to spin off BA because of EU rules, could use the cost advantage of PH labor to strengthen its Asia ops.
AA really wants a stronger Asian presence
And both have successfully dealt with PR
BA&AA's virtual stranglehold on trans-altlantic replicated to EU-ASEAN-US? Makes you wonder...

[Arianespace]

Arianespace wrote

One positive thing about C11 exit is the intent to grow cargo business. It helped them alot during pandemic. In fact, 77w do rotation daily to CAN without pax.  This never happened (exclusive cargo) in 2001.

Most surprising of all is they keep TLV.

PAL peeps just confirmed what I said.

“We are now a cargo airline.” Thus said Dina May Flores, vice president and OIC Head of Sales for the pioneering flag carrier.

Speaking at the recent Business Assembly of the Pacific Asia Travel Association  (PATA) Philippines chapter, she said,

“We will no longer be dependent on passenger traffic as a single revenue stream. We have revised our network to allow for hybrids like carrying exclusively cargo on one way and then carrying passengers on the return leg of the round-trip flight.”

“We will tap new markets that make strategic sense. We have to apply good business sense to all our plans and efforts, and every route must pay its own way. There will be no costly prestige routes,” Flores stressed.

And turn cold feet to TLV. I really thought the new guys have nerves of steel. Apparently, they haven't. Perhaps the difference between risk takers and what nots.    

Despite the carrier’s recent announcement of flights to Tel Aviv, Israel, the PAL official said there still was no definite date when these will actually be launched. “Tel Aviv is a developmental route for us. We want to make sure it actually makes sense [to fly there]. So when [the flights will commence] is still a question mark.”

https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/03/28/as-it-turns-81-pal-leaner-meaner-for-new-normal/

I would say, risk takers tend to be more successful in life than prudent ones. Just look at the old one for inspiration. JJB said "no" and he said "yes".

[Arianespace]

The reason why PAL needs to stop at YVR for JFK, YYZ flights, which also affects LHR



PAL could make it the longest though. But I think they are smarter this time. FYI, PAL and CPA have same Russian depositary bank account frozen. Even if CPA is Chinese, it pays its account in USD.

[Evodesire]

Arianespace wrote

I would say, risk takers tend to be more successful in life than prudent ones. Just look at the old one for inspiration. JJB said "no" and he said "yes".

Well guess who had just been replaced hehehe

[Arianespace]

PAL will return 9 A320/321 aircraft to lessor this year in line with its fleet optimization, both from PR and AP. They also happen to have expiring leases. This is the old fleet that could have been replaced by NEOs.

[Eurest]

Are these the 5 A321CEOs and 4 A320CEOs that were stored 2020, or something else?
There was already an excess of narrowbodies pre-CoViD right?

I hear the CX 748F's have been flying to MNL? I guess CX really does lift a lot of Air freight to the PH
I guess they really needed the 773s and 77W to MNL for belly cargo, but now that they don't have the frequency, they compensate with a single 748F flight?
Or have you guys been online shopping like mad since the pandemic? The rest of the world has, so I would suspect the PH too.

Aside from KE's 744F, which other non-Cargo carrier flew 747F's to MNL
Does DHL still use the A300F/727F?

Speaking about the 748, there was a Boeing offer for a mix of 787s and 748s right?
How different would PR be if that had happened?

[seven13]

CI comes to mind.
I’ve seen their B74F several times in Manila. DHL’s A300F too, still flying to Manila if I’m not mistaken. I think I’ve seen SF Express’ B752F too in Manila.

Mainline’s might be 9915/9903/9905/8613/8619/8620

After the return to lessor, will PR transfer some of it’s other A321CEO to 2P?

[Arianespace]

FEDEX too brought in the triple seven. It used to be 767 only.

As to further PR/2P fleet reduction, I don't know details of the outgoing frames. Most of them are stored in Clark and some are still flying.

[Eurest]

Air freight might really be the driving force for Philippine aviation soon.
Exports like semiconductors would be worth air freight costs considering factories are being shuttered due to lack of inventory. Seaports are heavily delayed with congestion making air more palatable despite costs.
I believe ICs and wafers are imported as well, so both ways will have load.
Maybe there's a Texas Instruments contract to be had

Perhaps cargo yield would weigh heavily now more than pax.
Even bringing some flights now operated by narrowbodies back to widebodies esp. with congestion in Asian airports making add'l frequencies difficult as to accomodate as much cargo in the hold as possible.

Does anyone mind monitoring CX/CPA 8095? Its the 748/74N flight. Might wanna see how many more times we see it in MNL
It's scheduled again for 04.13.2022 Wed ETA 0115. 4th this month, not sure if its really demand, or CX doing its nighttime manual approach certification shenanigans. It's scheduled until end of May (no June onwards Cargo sched) departing HKG on Saturdays and Tuesdays, arriving MNL Sunday and Wednesday 0100ish
Anyone spotting for it? Would love to see some photos

[Evodesire]

Are all of PAL A321Ns back in service?

[Arianespace]

Nope.

They have 8 frames  for the 321N (30-38). I think 2 are not yet flying. But soon they will with their growing frequency. They used to operate only 4 then 5 then few days ago the 6th one flew.

[peterpiloto]

Three 777s still stored. 7775, 7774, and 7781. Wonder what would be the fate of these birds.

[seven13]

I think 81 is under repair/maintenance. I heard it suffered a mechanical problem while being towed in Manila in preparation for a flight.

[Eurest]

I wouldn't be surprised to see them back flying by June

Is there still a carrier that operated pre-CoViD that hasn't returned?

[Arianespace]

peterpiloto wrote

Three 777s still stored. 7775, 7774, and 7781. Wonder what would be the fate of these birds.

The other two frames listed above. Continuation of my earlier post below.

Arianespace wrote

Eurest wrote

PR was already set to go all B77W and return all A359s, what did Airbus offer to convince PR to keep 2 A359s?

This question was actually answered in this forum awhile back. Briefly, it was all about Lucio Tan.

If Sta. Maria had his way he would have wanted only 4 77w retained, two of which is 77 and 76 under sale compulsory leaseback to GECAS and Castlelake.

And then there was Voyager, intent to have their planes flying, granted payment deferrals to PAL, other than offering favorable lease terms.

Avation then gave them the best deal for retaining also their plane. Its all there in the thread posted a year ago. (March 2021 onwards)  Some of the new lease terms are later known to be PBH (Power by the Hour).

Discussions with lessors brought PAL 8 planes (from 4-5-6 boeing and 0-2-3 airbus). Still 8 planes. The airbus deal was explained best by flightglobal. PAL will lease half and surrender the other half. Meaning, PAL will operate only 1 from Avolon, SMBC, and Goshawk. That is what happened to the A350. The most peculiar case however was the fleet from Avolon which all went to Lufthansa Tecknik to be operated by Lufthansa. 3504 happens to be financial lease by PAL if I'm not mistaken. At first only one was approved via LTP ownership but both was eventually taken by LT AG in Hamburg.

74 and 75 are PAL owned planes, awaiting similar fate to 77 and 76. Voyager owns 81. C11 agreements with voyager allows PR to retake plane when flight conditions improves. Technically, 81 is a voyager plane at the moment IMO.

[peterpiloto]

Arianespace wrote

peterpiloto wrote

Three 777s still stored. 7775, 7774, and 7781. Wonder what would be the fate of these birds.

The other two frames listed above. Continuation of my earlier post below.

Arianespace wrote

Eurest wrote

PR was already set to go all B77W and return all A359s, what did Airbus offer to convince PR to keep 2 A359s?

This question was actually answered in this forum awhile back. Briefly, it was all about Lucio Tan. If Sta. Maria had his way he would have wanted only 4 77w retained, two of which is 77 and 76 under sale compulsory leaseback to GECAS and Castlelake. And then there was Voyager, intent to have their planes flying, granted payment deferrals to PAL, other than offering favorable lease terms. Avation then gave them the best deal for retaining also their plane. Its all there in the thread posted a year ago. (March 2021 onwards) Some of the new lease terms are later known to be PBH (Power by the Hour). Discussions with lessors brought PAL 8 planes (from 4-5-6 boeing and 0-2-3 airbus). Still 8 planes. The airbus deal was explained best by flightglobal. PAL will lease half and surrender the other half. Meaning, PAL will operate only 1 from Avolon, SMBC, and Goshawk. That is what happened to the A350. The most peculiar case however was the fleet from Avolon which all went to Lufthansa Tecknik to be operated by Lufthansa. 3504 happens to be financial lease by PAL if I'm not mistaken. At first only one was approved via LTP ownership but both was eventually taken by LT AG in Hamburg.

74 and 75 are PAL owned planes, awaiting similar fate to 77 and 76. Voyager owns 81. C11 agreements with voyager allows PR to retake plane when flight conditions improves. Technically, 81 is a voyager plane at the moment IMO.

Also 77 and 76 still hasn’t gotten their PIP’s unlike the second batch (75, 74, 73, and 72) which is noticeable with their tail skid made redundant… Any info about the returned tri-class A333s stripped of their cabin? Hope they’re installed on some of the remaining bi-class birds. But yep, refurbishing an aircraft costs $$$ and I guess it’s not the right time to refurbish their planes at the moment..