Airlines in the Philippines

[tigz]

Now the 789 scale model is very telling! If the A350 deal has long been in place, a model of such would be a more compelling backdrop. It kind of re-assures my doubt as to why an announcement have been deferred, something significant must have happened.

[Eurest]

It would be understandable for GE Aviation that a lot is at stake for its future in the PH if PR goes A359s

PR used to source spare parts for their CFM 56s for its B744, A333 213T and A319/A320s from GE China
Now, its only the 8 B77Ws that are GE powered now that GTFs have been selected for the initial A321NEOs
GE Aviation used to be the major powerplant provider for PR by virtue of its CFM JV with Snecma, now it occupies a precarious position

If PR had gone A359s, then the most cost effective replacements for the B77W would be RR powered A350-1000s or 1100s (if they ever get built), virtually wiping out GE in the PH

I suspect GE would have sweetened the offer for B789s, not to mention GE has a deal with Lufthansa Technik for European GEnx overhauls, perhaps LTP will become a GEnx specialty site the way they are with CFMs

The deferral is indeed telling, but the people here have dropped hints with the B789 with the notebook and the MNL-JFK non stop image
The 2017 ramp up for both Charleston at 7 and Seattle at 7 to 14 a month has created new delivery slots, and the previous Ice Crystals issue of the GEnx has since been resolved.
Boeing is the polar route initiator, and would likely provide a huge technical assistance for PR towards making MNL-JFK a reality

If PR goes B789, it represents a huge coup and the deferral could indicate a last minute sweetheart deal that might have involved a US Ex-Im bank loan guarantee prodded by the lobbyists of Boeing and GE

[majaba]

Both 777s are due this year. Another 5 A321s will also arrive in Manila 2016 for PAL.

[Solblanc]

That is an interesting theory indeed.

That being said, Boeing doesn't have a very good track record at sales to the Philippines. Heck, if the 744 deposits were never there, PAL would be flying the A346 right now.

In retrospect, the A346 wouldn't have been all that bad if PAL made that choice. For one, it would've been delivered faster, and we could've seen JFK service before the entire CAT2 brouhaha.

Anyway, we know the schedule of deliveries for this year, but the nagging question is, when will the A330 reconfiguration start? And while we know that OZ routes will definitely get the reconfigured A330, what else is on the line?

[Eurest]

I dare say the A346 might have been better for PR and things would have not been so bleak

The A346 would have been put in service faster as the apprehensions of flying over the Pacific with just 2 engines would not be applicable to 4 holer making them already in service once CAT 2 was placed

LAX, SFO and YVR would have been non-stops already, and you are right JFK would have already been served from YVR as well as direct if PRs A346 were the later HGW variants

PR would have retired the A343s and B744s sooner leaving the A346 as the long-haul flier
Even at 120$/ barrel the A346 would not have been as bad as the B744
The B744 @ 12,600 kg/hr
The A346 @ 8,900 kg/hr
The B77W @ 8,000 kg/hr

In 2008, I would postulate that Airbus would have used its influence to give PR an exemption from the EU blacklist, much like GA when it bought A332s with T700s, as Europe and Airbus could have really used a top-up for A346s order during the financial crisis once the B77W started dominating
I'd imagine PR would have something like 10-12 A346s instead of the 4 A343+5 B744 and the odd 6 B77W that never really went anywhere far pre-2015

Then the Boeing deposits would have likely been used for A333 replacements which would be the Dreamliners

Forgive my musings with nostalgic hindsight, with the deal already inn place I need something to tide me over until the official announcement for the A343 replacements at SIN 2016
Curiously only the A359 will have a flying display as Boeing Defense is the one having flying displays. I wonder which 787 Boeing will use as a static display

[Solblanc]

Is it really going to be an airshow announcement? That late? That means even more waiting. I mean, three weeks more isn't that much more waiting, but it would be nice to get the announcement out of the way

In the meantime, we've hit the 36 million mark. That growth is pretty impressive if you ask me, especially since we've become so slot-restricted, plus there was that week when nothing was flying thanks to APEC.

The terminals are supposedly bursting at the seams, but that's not really new. Sometimes, I wonder if Aeroports de Paris really knew what it was doing when it designed the layout of our terminals. It clearly could have been better. Heck, they could've constructed a parallel runway early on within the current NAIA complex that would cut through Nayong Pilipino and the golf course. Just goes to show what their expectations were if they expected NAIA to be functional until 2050.

[tigz]

Right, what's with the hoopla on this widebody purchase, its not like its going to change the course of the competition between Bpeing and Airbus. If its 60 orders I can understand the deferement, but for 6! Sounds like an overrated marketing announcement for this airline!

[maortega15]

Curious to know, which administration decided to switch from GE to RR on the A330's as well as from CFM to PW on the A32x series? Was it RSA or JJB all along?

I'm sure there is a more in depth reason why the Trent 700 was chosen for the A330 aside from the fact that its the best selling engine for the A330.

Moving on, if they really wanted to, they could've grabbed rather quick the A345's coming from SQ and TG but I feel that they plan to plan for the long term rather than an interim solution hence the acquisition of the 77W.

A bit OT, its a shame what that "other" forum has come down to. I have been following that forum just to follow up with the latest photos and developments but it has come down to personal attacks on members and even that "famous" moderator has now attacking other members! What a twit. So its good to be here where concrete discussions are made.

Cheers

[romantic_guy08]

With fuel around $50-$60/barrel and still falling, would anyone know how much fuel PR/5J are hedging? Or for how long the length of their hedging contracts will be?

[chowpau]

As far as I know, it is during RSA time. RR are more fuel efficient than GE and PW. For the A321, IAE have better engine performance than the cfm.

[majaba]

Agree. That "other forum" is only good for news and images. Hardly worth discussion.

[majaba]

As far as I know ADP only was commissioned to design a terminal. There was no deal to plan the run- and taxiway layout.

[MisterGuy13]

@tigz

Most probably because majority of our airports in the Philippines have limited parking space? If PAL were to order dozens of A350s of B787s, where are they going to park them? I'm even questioning myself on where PAL and Cebu Pacific will park their incoming A320/A321 orders.

I agree with you guys about "the other forum" It seems the discussion there just goes back and forth with the same topic. Used to enjoy reading all the discussions there, but lately its nothing but redundant subjects. Glad to see actual aviation discussion here.

[tigz]

Its not like aerodrome expansion is on their blindside, in fact, T3 was already conceived while T2 was wrapping up the boards. Now its the GOP on the approvals and of course the counterpart money; there is always a masterplan on any airport project and that includes future horizontal works; of course, consultants will not go beyond their scope. They can only endorse and let govt decide.

[maortega15]

Unfortunately, the "notorious" moderator is full of complaints and constant bitching and thinks he knows everything. He is full of himself. Arianespace got kicked out of because of him while others get to stay.

Moving on, anyone know if there are any plans for new seats and IFE for PR's 77W and A330?  

[seven13]

Eurest mentioned that the new 77W might be configured in 36 JCL if the layout isn't changed which will occupy D1-D3 if I remember correctly.

[Arianespace]

maortega15 wrote

Curious to know, which administration decided to switch from GE to RR on the A330's as well as from CFM to PW on the A32x series? Was it RSA or JJB all along?

I'm sure there is a more in depth reason why the Trent 700 was chosen for the A330 aside from the fact that its the best selling engine for the A330.

Moving on, if they really wanted to, they could've grabbed rather quick the A345's coming from SQ and TG but I feel that they plan to plan for the long term rather than an interim solution hence the acquisition of the 77W.

I did discussed it. I just don't remember whether from this forum or the erstwhile other. We got good discussion about it. Maybe its a good time to read this thread if you have time.

Taken from management perspective, JJB has quite limited powers than RSA. Even from today's standpoint.

As Chowpau has stated, Trent is the better engine now.

As to the A340, Airbus did in fact offered the A346 to PAL as the interim lift to replace the old ones but that requires training which RSA shut down as unnecessary, yet conceive the idea of B757 flying OZ's secondary cities. The plane could have done JFK and the west coast just easily as the A345 which is kinda magnet now. Just look how the four holers made PR's books look very impressive.

[Arianespace]

romantic_guy08 wrote

With fuel around $50-$60/barrel and still falling, would anyone know how much fuel PR/5J are hedging? Or for how long the length of their hedging contracts will be?

Or you could see how much they are earning in 2015... You can take a cue from that

[Arianespace]

MisterGuy13 wrote

@tigz

Most probably because majority of our airports in the Philippines have limited parking space? If PAL were to order dozens of A350s of B787s, where are they going to park them? I'm even questioning myself on where PAL and Cebu Pacific will park their incoming A320/A321 orders.

There will be room for parking as the old fleet bids goodbye to the new ones. In fact, this early, PH airlines from PAL, CEB, and even AAP are discarding the old cans for newer frames. If you can also see the trend of up-sizing fleets from across the board? From the A319 to the A321?

Just see how old the PH fleet are?

[Eurest]

tigz wrote

Right, what's with the hoopla on this widebody purchase, its not like its going to change the course of the competiti signals on between Boeing and Airbus. If its 60 orders I can understand the deferement, but for 6! Sounds like an overrated marketing announcement for this airline!

The A350 program had a poor 2015 in terms of sales, ending up with a net cancellation of 3 orders.
Zero [0] orders for an entire year that led to a backlog of 3 less frames.
If you were Airbus, would you not want to start the year by announcing an order?
6+6 widebodies is numerically small, but widebodies have malaki patong compared to single-aisles.
An order for 100 narrowbodies might look impressive to the public, but the beancounters know the resulting yield will be meager.

As for Boeing, the 787 had a much better 71 net orders, but most of them were top-ups from previous operators. The only significant new operator was BR, which was huge as Boeing 787s will be replacing A332s and A333s, B is basically targeting A operators
Boeing announcing an order that had previously been known to be Airbus to lose would be huge.
Their coup of the BBD-to-lose supposedly was for CS100s but Boeing swept-in and got United to buy 737-700s signifies that Boeing sales team is out for blood, whether that be Canadien, Euro or South American

Besides, SIN 2016 is a few days after CNY, very lucky for business that way!



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romantic_guy08 wrote

With fuel around $50-$60/barrel and still falling, would anyone know how much fuel PR/5J are hedging? Or for how long the length of their hedging contracts will be?

When SMC took over, Petron got a huge fuel supply deal with PR.
Petron JetA1 is quite competitively priced, so much so that Petron beat out Petronas for the MH A380 fuel supply deal in their home turf.
I believe PR stopped hedging after they incurred such a heavy loss in 2007 I think. If they still hedge, it just might be around 20% of their needs.
I'm pretty sure PR's 2016 fuel bill is no where near 5J's 2016 hedge @ 70$/barrel cost, as PR is quite aggressive in expanding even long-haul, a stark contrast to 5J which have not announced any new long-haul destinations recently.

As of 01.08.2016, Platts has pegged jet fuel in Asia & Oceania at an average of 98.4 cents/gallon or 41.3$/barrel or 326.7$/kg
A 6.1% decrease from a week ago, a 16.9 decrease from just a month a go and a 36.5% decrease from a year ago.

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MisterGuy13 wrote

@tigz

Most probably because majority of our airports in the Philippines have limited parking space? If PAL were to order dozens of A350s of B787s, where are they going to park them? I'm even questioning myself on where PAL and Cebu Pacific will park their incoming A320/A321 orders.

I agree with you guys about "the other forum" It seems the discussion there just goes back and forth with the same topic. Used to enjoy reading all the discussions there, but lately its nothing but redundant subjects. Glad to see actual aviation discussion here.

5J's A321NEOs will arrive as the leases on their earlier A320 are expiring and they are intent on selling all their owned A319s ASAP. Their growth ac will depend on whether they extend leases on some of their A320s, w/c we could see more regional destination from secondary airports like BCD or ILO

PR though had the problem of too much frames, which necessitated the deferral of more A321s, much to the chagrin on the French Ambassador; the reopening of CEB as a hub, and more aggressive subleasing of A320 frames

The initial 6 A343 replacements will be just 1 for 1 replacements of the A343s, the problem is if PR does have the options for 6 more and chooses to exercise those. Will they move 2P domestic along with the remaining mainline domestic routes at T2 and then move international ops to T1 if T2 doesn't get expanded?

Here's to hoping the Japanese Emperor gifts the PH with a loan for a new airport!


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Arianespace wrote

MisterGuy13 wrote

@tigz

Most probably because majority of our airports in the Philippines have limited parking space? If PAL were to order dozens of A350s of B787s, where are they going to park them? I'm even questioning myself on where PAL and Cebu Pacific will park their incoming A320/A321 orders.

There will be room for parking as the old fleet bids goodbye to the new ones. In fact, this early, PH airlines from PAL, CEB, and even AAP are discarding the old cans for newer frames. If you can also see the trend of up-sizing fleets from across the board? From the A319 to the A321?

Just see how old the PH fleet are?

Philippine aviation is really impressive not just because of the fleet age, but because both Philippine operators have been very profitable despite having to buy new aircraft and yet the PH still has room to grow as it's tourist numbers are minimal compared to ASEAN neighbours

It's hard to imagine now but I really believe in a few years PH will be like JP where high-density widebodies ply the domestic routes! MNL-CEB will be like HND-ITM