Airlines in the Philippines

[seven13]

eff 07APR16 Osaka Kansai – Manila Service operates 2-4 weekly
GK081 KIX2030 – 2335MNL 320 x167
GK080 MNL0035 – 0530KIX 320 x127

Service operates 2 weekly (Day 24) from 03MAY16 to 31MAY16

Got this from airlineroute.net

With this introduction, PR should still have the biggest market share in terms of available seats to JP right? Total of 8 TYO flights daily (including 2X daily CEB, 2 flights codeshare with NH) 2X daily flight to KIX, 10X a wk to NGO and daily FUK. After the commencement of GK, which one will be bigger, NH or JL?

Ibaraki is an unusual route for charters, especially to secondary cities. What happens to the planned KLO-NRT charters/scheduled flights? I wouldn't be really surprised if PH becomes JP's second largest source of tourists, everyone seems to spend their holidays in JP nowadays.

[romantic_guy08]

Eurest wrote

Anyways what's this I'm hearing of PR serving Ibaraki for charters to secondary PH cities?
I've not come across the feasibility study for this service

PH is now Japan's second largest tourist source after CH? I wonder how HK or SG reacts to this news

These are proposed chartered flights between Bacolod and Ibaraki.

http://www.watchmendaily.com/news/chartered-flights-from-ibaraki-japan-start-march-2016/

[Eurest]

You're correct, there must have been a qualifier that was mentioned but I forgot or did not hear

The data [https://www.jnto.go.jp/eng/ttp/sta/PDF/E2015.pdf] from the Japanese gov't seems to indicate the PH tourism numbers is more modest, but the percent change is remarkable considering there are far stricter rules for PH visitors compared to ASEAN neighbors

I was always wondering why PR suddenly flew a steady stream of A333s to JP, even with HND which was barely an A321 was it 5x a week when it started? I guess seats are really filling up annd its not for A333 utilization sake.
GZ also starting MNL with 3x routes was also startling, such an aggressive foray but I guess their projections support their expansion as JP carriers have a conservative expansion methodology.

With JP being the PH's 3rd largest source of tourists, it's a guaranteed 2 way traffic increasing exponentially.

Add to that the 6th freedom traffic the JP carriers can draw from the PH and those traveling to the PH

Why is DL not taking advantage of this? There the only ones on the route with direct-aisle access lie-flat.
UA/NH just upsized to a 77E last Holiday season despite the PR codeshare and DL seems to just be Meh about it, even downsizing to a 77E for this North American summer season as they move the ever dwindling 744s to the busier routes. They should try to compete on PH-JP and not focus on PH-US

[Arianespace]

Not anymore. The rapid tourism boom in Japan is no brainier. The equipment upgrade should be an earlier indication on the windfall of this route. You should be surprise that its actually a two way increase in O&D traffic. Bulk however still comes from the Japanese market if we are talking about their arrivals here.

<iframe width="506" height="341" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N-Zff0kHwGY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Two things has made this possible, Visa relaxation implemented in 2014 by Japan to the Philippines, and its corresponding expansion to the ASA bilaterals.

And while a 9% increase arrival in the Philippines is modest, in Japan, things look a lot very different.


http://www.tourism.jp/en/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/JTM_inbound20151224eng.xls

In 2013, prior to the relaxation of Japanese visa to the Philippines there were only 108,851 Filipinos that entered Japan.

As of November 2015, there were already 235,654 Filipinos that entered the country, more than 200% increase in less than two years. Very dramatic indeed.


http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/240567/revised-air-service-agreement-opens-door-to-more-flights-between-japan-and-philippines/

Of course there are still plenty of room to grow on this sector, with the likes of Clark, Kalibo, Palawan and Davao still off the commercial radar similar to commercial viability of  Japanese airports such as Okinawa to which PAL flew before, Hiroshima, Sapporo, and, Ibaraki, which is currently also being discussed here.

[Arianespace]

And while we are at it, here is the latest figure for year 2015



Korea is a no brainer also. Nowadays you can find Korean almost always every tourist spot in the country. Sometimes you mistake the Japanese for Korean.

Australia grew by leaps and bounds. That should answer your questions to CEB and PAL's additional frequency and whether they were actually supported by warm bodies.

Taiwan airlines are also quoted recently. Here is the reason why?

Malaysia is very interesting because quite a few of us realized that both MAS and Air Asia grew this route with more frequencies. In fact its the only one not affected by MAS route restructuring despite earlier plans to do so.

United Kingdom should not surprise you as Cathay Pacific added another frequency to MNL to connect the empire. with 5 daily flights to LHR, it is no doubt the most preferred airline from the UK and more seats for the local for their exponential growth. But really, the local traffic mostly head to Kalibo and Cebu. PAL of course benefited from this growth. In fact they already secured a daily slot from the time they transferred their operations to late evening departures.

And lastly, India. Perhaps you can understand now Jet Airways frustration. Actually, the problem involves not only our airport but theirs also, thus the problem with slot allocations. Unfortunately, Indian airports happen to be congested too, which is also becoming a headache for PAL.

[seven13]

I think another room for growth is the mainland Chinese tourist. We are still included in their travel ban list/blacklist because of the Huangyan Island/Scarborough Shoal issue, but despite that, there are aplenty of charters being offered by 5J, PR/2P and AAP. For the upcoming Chinese Spring Festival, PR is chartering 6 CEBPVG which already started last week. Flights every 4 days; 1 PVG-MNl-GUM this coming Chinese New Year. Folks from the cabin side said that these charters are 99% full to/from. Late last year, there were CEBNKG and CEBPVG running for 3-5months, I think, and it's all PR operated using mono A330. Add to it 2P's charters to WNZ, HGH and another point. 2Ps previous KLOPEK became a regular PR flight inheriting the exMNLPEK redeye flight number.

Seems like 5J's KLOPEK and KLOPVG charters are still ongoing and wouldn't be surprise for AAP. To add to that, starting Feb 01, PR and MF will enter codeshare agreement on their XMN and JJN fligts.

[Arianespace]

I highlighted Air China's growth in this sector before, coupled with the introduction of multiple Chinese carriers calling MNL, i.e. CES, CSN,and CXA last year. From the simple E-70 jet last year, they have now grown to A321. By this year don't be surprised to see their wide bodies. And we don't even see Spring Airlines (SQH) just yet which should be landing this year.

Of course it all bids well for our airlines, PAL, CEB, and AAP. In fact, they still control the market to CHN, which they are growing at exponential rates.

[Arianespace]

Eurest wrote

Why is DL not taking advantage of this? There the only ones on the route with direct-aisle access lie-flat.
UA/NH just upsized to a 77E last Holiday season despite the PR codeshare and DL seems to just be Meh about it, even downsizing to a 77E for this North American summer season as they move the ever dwindling 744s to the busier routes. They should try to compete on PH-JP and not focus on PH-US

Perhaps this would give you a hand in understanding what's on the airlines mind. CAPA has made a good account of it which is a nice read.

Delta Air Lines' our-way-or-no-way attitude risks subverting US & Japan interests on Haneda flights


And the airline's farce threat

Delta: Japan deal threatens Asia flights 

Typical hypocrisy I say. They are losing more on this stand.

[Eurest]

Interesting figures, the UK now being bigger than Canada and the fact that expatriate oil workers are no longer I guess explains why PR 116 is no more starting Summer 2016
I think CA is another market that has potential, especially since CA is colder and would appreciate a tropical escape

The Zika virus affecting South America might be a boon for US and CA tourists looking for a safer alternative.
Despite the presence of Dengue in the PH, there doesn't seem to be tourist infections in places like Palawan or Boracay.

TW should grow even bigger now that places like Kaohsiung have service. I believe it still has ways to go before the pre-Batanes incident. I was told there were around 500,000 visitors from TW to PH previously?

The Australia numbers are promising, so much so that KLO-OZ might materialize in the near future to rival OZ-DPS
KLO's current runway is 260M short for an A321 MTOW, but there is an upgrade in the works right?
If I may ask, does anyone have airfield temps for KLO?
Also does anyone know which among the five weight variants PR's incoming A321NEOs are?
I heard they are WV070 as they are intended for regional 2000nm flights which would verify why PR would need an A321LR for IN and OZ

But KR still growing at a double digit rate is mighty impressive. It seems we have not seen saturation, unlike say, SG

[seven13]

But ain't CA's main market are connecting/transit pax from MNL to US mainland or EU? It should be quite different versus JP and KR where we see O/D traffic growing. The same goes with CES and CSN. CSN used to have MNLPEK via XMN but was given to MF to operate (XMNMNL vv.) thus replacing CZ378 to CZ3078/3077 to connect more conveniently to other destinations in CSN's network via CAN. Before CZ398 was used to connect to LAX/BNE/SYD/AMS and CDG and the midday CZ3092 was used to connect for passengers bound for DXB but its Dubai operations did scale down. The same flight is also used to connect to other mainland China destinations since it was the first flight out of MNL 2-3years back, but, Dubai bound overseas workers outnumbered those going to inner China.

When its Dubai ops scaled back, CZ3092 did change from A320 to E170 but I think they currently use the B737 for its 3 daily flights. CZ398 used to be a mix of A319 and A320. During the lean season (June to last day of summer schedule), CZ3092 and CZ398 operated alternately and once again operates 2X/day starting the winter schedule.

CZ378 used to be a daily A321 service where the bulk of its passengers come from and are bound for XMN only (there are some who goes to PEK and then onto AMS but not that significant) but since China's policy of one airline per route, it handed its XMN ops to its sister company, MF with an awful timeslot.

PR now will be operating A321 on its PVG and XMN routes, occasionally using it to PEK during the peak Chinese travel season from MNL. I'm not sure if it's because PR A320s are gradually being replaced by A321 or the demand is there to warrant such aircraft upgrade.

[Eurest]

United Airlines to Start Only U.S.-Singapore Non-Stop Flight

MNL is listed as one of the preferred alternates for this route, prompted primarily by ME3 competition but in response as well to alliance member SQ's planned restart of US direct flights.
MNL-JFK is only around 74 miles longer than SIN-SFO route, which is projected to take 15:30 ex-SFO and 16:20 ex-SIN
No revenue cargo ex-SIN, and some Y seats will be blocked out pending WX

The US3 have NRT hubs but NRT-SouthEastAsia is experiencing tremendous yield pressure as NRT entertains more LCCs and there is a huge capacity growth by virtue of Japan's tourism boon
We now see UA as the first US3 to start a direct service to ASEAN bypassing NRT

As for SFO-MNL, it is highly unlikely until UA get's their B77W as their B789's are too J heavy for MNL at 48 seats and only 200Y
The feasibility study for HNL-MNL on 10 abreast reconfigured 77E connecting to IAH, DEN, ORD and SFO hinted demand would be meager for non-direct US mainland flights
UA could use the B789 for SIN and SGN, with HKG, TPE and MNL on their B77W

We will have to see how DL responds as SIN is quite imp't for DL
DL does have B77L's to start SEA-SIN, but those are stretched as they have to triangulate from ATL [for JNB, NRT] and LAX [for SYD, PVG]. LAX-SIN would need a retrofit of their B77L's to add the 3 ACT's
It would be difficult for DL to have to base another B77L in SEA for just one flight, what's more likely is a response once A359's are delivered and they have data to confirm their plans, much like UA waited for 6 mos wotrh of data from SFO-SYD until they were sure they could do SFO-SIN with their B789s

[cabinpressure]

To add, ANA wants to serve CEB through its LCC subsidiary Vanilla Air by 2020.

http://www.anahd.co.jp/en/pr/201601/pdf/20160129-2.pdf

[Arianespace]

seven13 wrote

But ain't CA's main market are connecting/transit pax from MNL to US mainland or EU? It should be quite different versus JP and KR where we see O/D traffic growing.

CCA is growing it. But the main transit point in America nowadays is Korea. It used to be CX. I tell you its bigger than Japan and Taiwan combined. Don't be deceived by the Korean O&D traffic. Because it will become irrelevant if we start counting how many Filipinos transit ICN across the pond. It may not be high yielding as what the US3 wanted it to be but it certainly fills the A380 on regular basis. It can also explain DL's dwendling numbers in MNL.

[tigz]

Understandably ICN is closer to the western seaboard than HK for the non-polar routes and closer as a stop for the polar routes from the eastern seaboard. What I'm hearing from most Filipinos I am based is KE gets you better prices at any given day than CX. Incheon terminal is modern and inviting as well. Taipei is also becoming fast popular with EVA air even offering much more competitive price but the terminal their is not as spectacular. Its generally expensive to be spending a lay-over in Japan. Many years way back, coffee was $4 in Nagoya and its not Starbucks!

[seven13]

Never thought that KAL would be a contender to US bound PH passengers. If it can fill up its A380 with transit pax, which I guess the bulk are from PH, then it is safe to assume that it was not about the preference of nighttime departure from PH that PR112 had difficulty in filling up when it used to operate daytime departure ex-MNL as we/I previously mentioned. I guess, KAL could really offer competitive prices. If KE can offer low prices, CA can no doubt give lower prices with a competitive hard product onboard its 77W.

[Eurest]

Anyone know the status of the AC that operated PR 127 last Friday?

I was told it hit a jetbridge at YVR after arriving from JFK and had to move to another gate for deplanement and that the MNL onwards flight was cancelled

[seven13]

Maybe that's why PR102 and PR104 got canceled the other day or yesterday and is reschedule to depart today (5104)

[Arianespace]

RP-C7775 is in Manila grounded up to this writing for some xray work at LTP. The plane flew some hours later after hitting the airbridge last Friday at YVR. I think just some compulsory maintenance checks just in case before it fly again tonight as PR126.

seven13 wrote

Maybe that's why PR102 and PR104 got canceled the other day or yesterday and is reschedule to depart today (5104)

True. That's the problem when you got all 6 on rotation. Scheduling is pretty messy when one is disabled. Déjà vu?

[Eurest]

Thanks, the YVR airport peeps seemed to really have kept things hush hush, considering the CI incident earlier in the day.

There's not even enough slack in the A343 fleet to compensate in January?
PR really does need more long-haul widebodies to address demand
I would have thought they would just cancel a January flight as those are often minimally loaded.
Rescheduling it would indicate otherwise.

[tigz]

I'm quite curious to know the sequence of events on this contact gate mishap. Normally, the movable segment of the bridge is some distance away until the plane is on blocks. There are also markings on the parking to indicate the parking position per aircraft type and the maneuver is very slow. From my end I suppose the bridge operator may have inadvertedly swung the gate too drastic!