Airlines in the Philippines

[romantic_guy08]

Eurest wrote

http://imgur.com/whRaQZW

It astounds me that around a decade and a few years back LT was apprehensive on crossing the Pacific with just 2 engines when choosing between the B77W and A346, and now PR will be doing Northern Polar Ops

The add'l meteorologists hired and being hired by PR will specialize on Space weather, particularly Solar Flares and Radiation for routing the vectors for MNL-JFK.
I wonder if the guys who specialized for the tech ops on SQ21/22 are available for PR

It will be interesting to see if PR schedules the reaction and recovery plan exercise prior to the Validation flight so it can carry revenue pax.

It seems PR will be indirectly benefitting from the Emiratization of Airbus and Boeing

Can the 77W fly this route profitably? This distance is near the performance threshold of the 77W. Weight penalties?

[seven13]

Eurest wrote

http://imgur.com/whRaQZW

It astounds me that around a decade and a few years back LT was apprehensive on crossing the Pacific with just 2 engines when choosing between the B77W and A346, and now PR will be doing Northern Polar Ops

The add'l meteorologists hired and being hired by PR will specialize on Space weather, particularly Solar Flares and Radiation for routing the vectors for MNL-JFK.
I wonder if the guys who specialized for the tech ops on SQ21/22 are available for PR

It will be interesting to see if PR schedules the reaction and recovery plan exercise prior to the Validation flight so it can carry revenue pax.

It seems PR will be indirectly benefitting from the Emiratization of Airbus and Boeing

first bold part: do you have an idea how it affects travel/routing of a flight?
Second bold part: what does this mean
Third: Emiratization = EK hoarding aircraft from one manufacturer?

[romantic_guy08]

seven13 wrote

Third: Emiratization = EK hoarding aircraft from one manufacturer?

It's more of Boeing and Airbus designing the performance of their new planes (i.e. 77X, A388Neo) to suite the needs of EK.

Basically "tailor fitting" the aircraft based on the specs required by EK. Since as we all know, EK is ordering planes by the boatloads, they are able to influence how the planes will be designed.

[Eurest]

As the atmospheric layer is quite thin in the polar regions, Solar flares affect the Polar regions more so than other areas and they have quite an effect on both health of the crew as well as navigation and communication equipment

Health-wise, it is imperative for air crew to avoid cosmic radiation particularly during solar flare events

As for the Nav and Com equipment, they are also prone to the solar flares.
There will be areas that HF or VHF or even com sat and data link equipment will be unusable.
In the worse case scenario, a solar flare can act as an EMP wave potentially wiping out all the electronics of the A/C

Just Planes has a video on an AC B77L Polar Ops, you might want to check that out if you want more info especially in terms of air crew responsibilities. Extremely good looking people in that video LOL

It seems PR has already formulated a long-term plan for its' future, and the small items reported in the papers like the A321LR, new meteorologists, new a/c, cabin refurbishment provide a glimpse of the bigger plan.

Oh, and there's a moderator with seemingly ill feelings against PR on A.net because he was affected when PR went into bankruptcy in the late 90s. He likes to delete threads on PR so he's most likely the one who modified Devilfish's post. This is different from the Canadian from Slurrey who also has ill will but moreso towards RSA than PR but I don't think he's an A.net mod.

[Eurest]

The closest route in terms of possible vectors is UA's EWR-HKG

UA flies EWR-HKG with pmCO B77E but blocks out 40 seats and even upwards to 60 and carries no revenue cargo

I would imagine PR would also have to block seats to make the flight if they use the B77W.
For most carriers JFK is always max fuel reserves because of weather and congestion, so the amount of payload will be quite minimal

That said, flying the B77W essentially as a B77L in terms of pax capacity is still very viable on routes you don't need the B77L's extra ACTs on

I would not think PR would go invest into the necessities of Polar Ops if they don't foresee the route as possible.
But I eventually see the A343 replacement taking over once they come online.

As far as demand, the Amadeus MIDT numbers indicate MNL-JFK can even support a daily 575T A388 flight
PR is allocating 1000 seats per week on MNL-JFK and the load factors are very, very good.

Once PR gets A321LR's, the 6th freedom traffic to points in India and Australia from NYC could possibly make MNL-JFK bigger than MNL-LAX

[Arianespace]

Like what I'm saying without being repetitive, JJB just swallowed his words and confirmed my post

Arianespace wrote

I don't want to sound pessimistic here, more so when we are talking about plans. Yes they have lots of them, but truly is different from approval which involves execution of the plan. The one disclosed to me has no approval just yet. As far as the Board is concerned. So my source is consistent.

And so there goes this news story with the same effect,

Next year, PAL is taking delivery of five Airbus 321 and two Boeing 777-300 that will bring down the average of its fleet to 3.6 years.

PAL is targeting to make a recommendation this year to its board of directors on whether it will buy Boeing 787 or Airbus 350 to further boost its 76-strong fleet that is currently dominated by Airbus.

“We’re looking at eight over 2-3 years. For long haul, Europe and US These airplanes will replace the Airbus 340s.  

http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Corporate&title=pal-likely-to-post-profit-in-q3&id=116198

By the way, the deferred A321NEO's orders according to my source are confirmed to be LR offers by Airbus, so we could be looking more gateways to Australia, Russian Far East and India for them.


http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=mnl-del%0D%0Amnl-bom%0D%0Amnl-per%0D%0Amnl-bne%0D%0Amnl-adl%0D%0Aceb-khv&R=3200nm%40mnl&MS=wls&DU=nm

The Indian plan is in fact in the PR drawing boards again. For one compelling reason,

The Philippines is looking at opening direct flight routes with India, in a bid to cash in on the rising thirst for outbound exotic travel among Indians. Currently, Indians wanting to fly to the 7,000-island archipelago need to transit through several hubs in between, including Hong Kong, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

“We are keen on exploring direct flights between India and the Philippines, which would certainly help tap the tourism potential of both nations. We are talking to several Filipino carriers to seek the best possibilities to realise this plan. We have also asked our team in India to talk to airlines here. We are hoping that by early next year, direct flights would commence,” Gerry Panga, Tourism Attache at the Department of Tourism, the Philippines, told Deccan Herald.

In 2014, around 61,000 Indians visited the Philippines, registering a growth of 17.5 per cent in inbound Indian tourists. Between January-June this year, 37,093 Indians visited the Philippines, registering a growth of 24 per cent. “By the end of this year, we expect over 65,000 Indians to visit our country, scripting a growth of around 30 per cent,” Panga said.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/499870/philippines-eyes-direct-flights-india.html

[romantic_guy08]

with PR aiming to do JFK non-stop... if and when this materializes, these frees up 5th freedom entitlements from Canada... hope they expand further in the U.S. (ORD perhaps?)

[Eurest]

When JFK is no longer used as the 5th freedom point from Canada, there are numerous possibilities aside from the obvious US points like ORD or MIA.

PR could enable an EY expansion into Canada by routing MNL-AUH-YYZ
Since EY only has 3 flights per week, PR could fly the the remaining 4 days, essentially giving EY [via codeshare] weekly service into YYZ albeit on a PR ticket to circumvent the Canada restriction on EY
PR could then leverage this Canadian opportunity to gain entry into EY's Equity Alliance w/c would also aid with the logistics of operating a ULH flight from a 5th freedom point

PR could also expand into South America with something like MNL-YVR-GRU, especially since there is no direct YVR-GRU flight. But I suspect Brazil's current troubled economy might not make it as attractive as it did during the SMC days.

SEA is another option, as SEA would give PR an opportunity to codeshare with AS to other smaller US points like MCO, especially since AS seems to codeshare with practically every Asian airliner that flies to SEA even the ones in alliances like BR or KE.
A MNL-SEA-YYZ flight would also have a similar block time to MNL-YVR-YYZ

But YVR already has a great set-up for PR transiting pax, so PR's 5th freedom from Canada will most likely be from YVR and since PR is keen on US expansion, ORD is the safe bet.

[Eurest]

Could this be the A359 variant Airbus has told PR could do MNL-JFK non stop?

http://www.airbus.com/newsevents/news-events-single/detail/airbus-launches-new-ultra-long-range-version-of-the-a350-900/

The A350-900ULR incorporates a number of necessary changes over the standard A350-900. These include a higher capacity fuel system within the existing fuel tanks, increasing fuel carrying capacity from 141,000 litres to 165,000 litres.
The A350-900ULR has an MTOW of 280 tonnes. The extended range capability is achieved without installation of additional fuel tanks and the aircraft can be reconfigured easily to the standard A350-900 long haul specification.

The increased MTOW and fuel capacity of the A359 a few years after EIS is in line with Airbus history of improving the capability of its' long-haul aircraft.
The A343 getting an E and then the X and then the 2003 update.
The A345 and A346 getting HGW variants with higher MTOW, improved thrust and higher fuel capacity.
And the A380 with the recent 575T MTOW variant, now guaranteed for 16-17 hours, which EK now use to replace their 3 class B77W used on the polar DXB-LAX/SFO flights, which were restricted to 310-320 seats instead of their max capacity of 354-360+

[seven13]

Let's hope. Maybe PR is waiting for Airbus to officially announce this in order for them to make the announcement. SQ is ordering 7 of this ULR variant and had started to spread the word for nonstop SINLAX and SINNYC on 2018. Makes sense if it's the case.

[Eurest]

Ultra long-haul flying seems to be more viable now with more efficient planes and relatively inexpensive fuel prices.

Airbus with the 18-19 hour SIN-New York flight with a premium heavy 170 seat SQ A359 ULR and Boeing with the 17-18 hour LHR-PER flight with a 254 seat QF B789

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/singapore-airlines-to-resume-non-stop-us-services-with-a350-900-ulr-a-strategic-imperative-248462

CAPA seems to think South East Asian carriers are the most likely candidates for the A359ULR, mentioning VN and TG.
I have to disagree with their assessment as VN already has such a huge capex for the next few years after acquiring both the B789 and A359
As for TG, though they have the history of operating the A345, they are facing possible sanctions on operating new aircraft types if Thailand faces additional sanctions from the EU or FAA if they fail to add add'l inspectors.
Their current financial state would also restrict them in acquiring new aircraft after just recently receiving new B77W as well as B788s

The most likely seems to be PR and GA.
With PR needing replacements for the A343, a historical tie to the US, and a need for an aircraft to operate points like ORD or IAH/DFW from MNL or CEB
As for GA, their B77W is too heavy for CGK's runway but they do need an aircraft for London ops makign the A359 a good choice. The A359 ULR could also get them access to the US west coast, something they've wanted to do especially now with more business ties.
And they do already have an LoI

All in all this year's Dubai Air Show will be more interesting as Airbus will likely announce add'l orders for the A359ULR along with launch customer SQ. And then Boeing will also want to rain on Airbus parade and highlight the B789 can also do ULH [with QF's B789 LHR-PER] and might announce add'l orders as well.

That said PR could just opt for the higher MTOW or just the increased fuel capacity of the A359 for the possible JFK non-stop as it should only be a 15-17hr mission in comparison to the 18-19 [and historically reached 21hr] SIN-New York

[Arianespace]

Eurest wrote

PR could enable an EY expansion into Canada by routing MNL-AUH-YYZ
Since EY only has 3 flights per week, PR could fly the the remaining 4 days, essentially giving EY [via codeshare] weekly service into YYZ albeit on a PR ticket to circumvent the Canada restriction on EY
PR could then leverage this Canadian opportunity to gain entry into EY's Equity Alliance w/c would also aid with the logistics of operating a ULH flight from a 5th freedom point

This is most interesting. I find it smart moved should they take this route. Lucrative too to make the triple seven work in the middle east. But the latest UAE bilaterals doesn't include Canada as 5th freedom point.

[Eurest]

It would be good for current PR to start creative 5th freedom routes like how BR is thriving on TPE-BKK-LHR
Though I suspect current PR is not keen on relatively riskier endeavors.

http://www.swirepacific.com/en/media/presseach.php?f=p151019.htm

It seems CX is once again ending routes which both 5J and PR are serving [or at least announced (PR's December DOH connector)] similar to CX ending JED and RUH service

I hope this emboldens PR and 5J to compete with Asia's biggest carriers.
For all the talk of the Philippines being a low-yield VFR market, the fact that its still important enough for both SQ and CX to fly F class aircraft as well as invest in exclusive lounges, cites how important MNL is for both carriers.
And the fact that NH has finally decided to hire the Skyview lounge in T3 for their C class pax, means the market for business class pax to and fro MNL is a profitable one.

With more JICA and USAID and other infra loans coming to the PH, along with this years APEC, I suspect a good number of new carriers will try to negotiate for S16 slots for MNL at Sentosa this November

It's always been the case that MNL can fill the back of airplanes, now it is quite clear the front is getting filled as well. I suspect their will be quite a few B777 and B744s at MNL, harking back to the pre Asian Financial crisis when MNL was filled with B744s and B742s from UA, NW, KL, AF, LH, JL, CI, CX etc

[Solblanc]

I think the model that PR can really look up to is TK. Despite the fact that much of their traffic is pretty low-yielding, their advantageous location gave them a chance to channel a huge volume of relatively low-yielding traffic through their fortress hub at IST.

Volume-wise, we are a growing travel market. There is a place for a cheaper full-service alternative. If TK can thrive in between the ME3 and the European carriers, surely PR can make it next to CX, SQ, JL, and NH.

Should we get excited for the Dubai airshow?

[Eurest]

With EK already saying that they will not make the decision for their 50-70 B78K vs A359 order, this year's Dubai Air Show might not have much in terms of order announcements.
I suspect some recent LoI's might be firmed into orders like the recent one involving B787s for BR
That said, the word from colleagues is that Boeing is quite excited for Dubai. I wonder what makes them so giddy.

If PR were to lease the 2 of 8 of the new widebodies from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, I would guess DAE might be inclined to publicly announce the news to prop their brand.

I suspect QR would make some big announcement to upend competitor EK at their home turf, the recent proclamation by Al-Baker of "wait and see" seems to point of something significant enough.

[romantic_guy08]

Eurest wrote

With EK already saying that they will not make the decision for their 50-70 B78K vs A359 order, this year's Dubai Air Show might not have much in terms of order announcements.
I suspect some recent LoI's might be firmed into orders like the recent one involving B787s for BR
That said, the word from colleagues is that Boeing is quite excited for Dubai. I wonder what makes them so giddy.

If PR were to lease the 2 of 8 of the new widebodies from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, I would guess DAE might be inclined to publicly announce the news to prop their brand.

I suspect QR would make some big announcement to upend competitor EK at their home turf, the recent proclamation by Al-Baker of "wait and see" seems to point of something significant enough.

Well there is the ET order... I guess that is what they are looking forward to...

AF and SU freed up some 787 slots starting 2017 so PR might take advantage of that...

[crusher.wake]

I just saw an article about Hawaiian Airlines' new business class seat when I suddenly read this:

(full article: http://www.runwaygirlnetwork.com/2015/10/25/optimares-goes-big-with-new-business-flat-bed-on-hawaiian/ )

Philippine Airlines is another, currently offering the Stelia Equinox 3D seat on its A330 fleet. PAL’s position is that passengers would prefer to fly nonstop in a flat bed on PAL without direct aisle access rather than connecting to another carrier to avoid the “midnight clamber” from the window seat over the aisle passenger. While Optimares did not name PAL as a customer, several of the images Optimares sent to RGN had the carrier’s name in the file name (including at top, and immediately below).

[Eurest]

Optimares is a fairly small aircraft seat company, they usually just display one seat model at AIX.

Those pictures could just be the proposal Optimares sent to PR but I do like the darker shade of brown than the current ones on the A330

Optimares’ business development exec Marco Tonucci tells Runway Girl Network that the seatmaker has secured an undisclosed customer’s “small fleet” of Boeing 787 Dreamliners, nose-to-tail with a full three-class layout.

Hmmm... RGN got pictures with PR's name in them and then an Optimares executive mentions a small fleet ot 787s?
It seems I need to ask some people some questions this week.

If PR went for the A350, I'd find it odd that Airbus did not promote subsidiary Stelia, a merger of 2 Airbus subsidiaries Aerolia and Sogerma, like it did in 2012 when it promoted OnAir for the WIFE (previous Airbus subsidiary Sita) and then Sogerma for the A330 J seats

In case you're interested in Zodiac's answer to the B/E Apex business suite Ariane posted a while back, there is the Fusio

http://www.ausbt.com.au/the-business-class-seat-that-s-really-a-suite

Width wise its' comparable to SQ's most current J seats but I do believe Zodiac is still looking for a launch customer for it.
It would be nice if PR were to be innovative again offering business suite like it was when it offered Skybeds in the past

[Solblanc]

The A350ULR seems to be the plane that would fit PR's needs... I'd be surprised if the 787 wins this round.

The seats are interesting, that's for sure. But I'm more interested in what's going to appear in the 77Ws. Surely, the flagship business class cabin is due for a retrofit. They can't possibly be using the same recaro seating for the 77W deliveries next year. Likewise, the Sogerma option seems a bit too dense for a 77W layout. The optimares seat looks interesting, but what will it look like in a 2-3-2 layout?

[Arianespace]

2-3-2 layout on the triple seven? How about this one?



Figure how it works?



Classy, elegant, and most of all truly private space. The best there is as far as I'm concerned.