Airlines in the Philippines

[Solblanc]

Very interesting. But why that particular variant? That's what's being offered to Qantas for Project Sunrise, isn't it? The 316t variant that CX uses can do everything in PAL's network except maybe for JFK.

Also, weren't the leases of the Recaro 77Ws just renewed recently? Can't find the post where arianespace announced it

[peterpiloto]

Eurest wrote

When are the RecaroJclass shod B77W's lease expiring? Are they on 10 or 12?

AFAIK, the leases of 77 and 76 were renewed. They had their heavy checks in XMN last year.

[B77Wflyer]

Solblanc wrote

Very interesting. But why that particular variant? That's what's being offered to Qantas for Project Sunrise, isn't it? The 316t variant that CX uses can do everything in PAL's network except maybe for JFK.

I have always been in the impression that a 316t MTOW A35K would have been enough to operate both MNL-JFK Or MNL-YYZ Although its self ispeculations at best. Quite curious about the performance data of CX HKG-IAD route when it was originally operated by the A35K later down gouge to the A359 as its a good temple for how far the A35K can really go, as the information on Airbus website state it has a range of 8,400nm?

[Crash&burn]

Hmmm..in the PAL list, 7777 and 7776 are still listed as having their leases expire in March and May 2022...as they were procured in Nov 2009 and Jan 2010..

[Crash&burn]

No confirmation yet..Boeing just made an initial presentation (so I’ve been told) on the 777-8 and 777-9 and will still come back for a more detailed presentation...777-8 can carry 360-370 pax MNL direct MIAMI; 777-9 anywhere from 370-420 MNL direct JFK and vice-versa..

[Crash&burn]

Fyi, A340 delivery flight P3437 arrived SFB (Orlando Sanford International Airport) yesterday.

[Arianespace]

Arianespace wrote

Meanwhile, CAPA and others has been stating based on ANA investment that PAL value is approximately US$1 Billion. That information is wrong. When Lucio Tan Group bought back 49% of Trustmark sold to San Miguel Corporation the transaction was valued already at US$1 Billion and that was in 2014. After that four new B77W and four A359 together with four A321N and nine DH4 joined the fleet adding value to the airline by another $1b. approx. Trustmark as a whole owns 84% of PAL. What ANA bought is 10% of Trustmark. There is more to the deal than the $95 million cash, otherwise that would translate to about 3-4% investment only. Since it is still going to be signed next week the rest of the deal is redacted.

I was stating this in January and now the real figures are in. PAL market valuation as of December 2018 is US$1.8B. That is as close from my estimate of around US$2B. And indeed there was more to the deal than the $95 million cash. ANA bought it at ₱4+ per share. Three months later with ANA, its now valued at US$2.5B. Amazing.

[Unbreakable]

A bit off topic, but anyone else here using myFlightradar24?

It's an amazing free tool that lets you put in all the flights you've ever flown (provided you still remember), including seat# & plane type + registration.

The best part is, you can put in your future flights and mfr24 will automatically update your profile to include the plane & registration on the day of your flight. :)

Unfortunately you wont be able to add friends unless you're actually friends with them on facebook, but still, give it a try and post here your profiles!

Here's mine.
https://my.flightradar24.com/Arjo

[seven13]

I’ve been using it for quite sometime now.
It’s really a handy tool and easy to use! The auto update is a new feature released probably some time last year? I used to update my entries myself several years back

[Eurest]

I assume the 316t would not be able to do JFK year round w/out a weight penalty especially with required fuel reserves, the FAA requires a strict amount into JFK long-haul after that fiasco a few years back.
And with LH A380's even having to declare fuel emergencies recently due to Wx, it must have been more prudent for Airbus to recommend the 319 also given the temps at MNL

As for the NH investment, the hubbub here is that JL also approached PR for a similar "strategic partnership" to that of GA.
You could read that specific term even used by PR in the media over this past few years.
I doubt there would have been as much cash infusion but PR would have benefited with full codeshares on AA flights as well as BA ex-LHR but on a more restricted basis as it was AA who was very keen on MNL
With Alphabet and Microsoft's new investments in the PH, it's not just Texas Instruments, JP Morgan, Shell et al. with corporate contracts.
Then there is that US gov contract that DL has for MNL

So already having lost GA, NH financially secured PR with the similar same small stake they had with VN, and what other Airliners are doing, such as DL or QR
The Skyteam rumors are interesting, given AA is now rumored to be starting MNL, VN is both in Skyteam and has a similar arrangement with NH.
Would DL be enticed to defend against AA by getting PR into Skyteam?

Thanks for the info on the earlier B77Ws, I guess Seattle still has a shot with the 777-9 for PR esp. with stronger Japan ties

[Solblanc]

Interesting developments... but if economy yields to the United States are indeed taking a hit thanks to the Chinese carriers, then filling up a 777-9 might be too much, and the frequency offered by the A35K/77W should be just right.

In theory, PR can already test the waters with SEA with an A330 via Japan. We have 5ths from Japan, and PR can choose a point that doesn’t have nonstop service, like NGO or FUK. They can even partner with AS for feed. And they might even grab a few ANA flyers while they’re at it.

A partnership with JL would’ve put PR straight into oneworld. I’m not sure if the money NH offered is equivalent to AA codeshares. PR really needs a US partner if it wants to remain competitive. And if the US3 don’t seem interested, why don’t they reach out to the likes of AS and B6?

[Eurest]

Just to clarify this A350-1000 wv005 is not the one for Qantas SYD-LHR/JFK, it was firmed as early as 06.2018 and is available 3Q 2020. Not sure if it was wv005 or 006 as there was a new lighter wv as well
It has less range than SIA's A350ULR, I believe 900-1300nmi less with 316 at 1500 less than the A359ULR

The SYD-LHR/JFK plane is pure speculation at this point. Think A340-200/300 growing into A340-500/600
The A359 did start at 268t and the ULR is at 280t so the A35k from 308t to 320?
I don't think even an A350-1000ULR will be enough for QF, I'm thinking A350-1100ULR

The 319T A350-1000 is more akin to PR's 278T A350-900 in that it's the first weight variant with structural differences.
PR's 278t was also a 3t bump from the then highest 275t with aero improvements and RR PIP, and now the one offered is another 3t bump from the previous highest 316t
PR seems to want to insure a 30-45 extra flight time over the standard variants so there is precedent

PR among first to A340-300 (was leased 200's in the meantime), 240t A330-300 (second batch A330 SMC are they 242t now?), 278T A350-900
So first for 319t as well? We find out in June perhaps?

Curious where PR might want a 16.5 hr A350-1000? JFK future capacity bump? CEB-LAX?

[Solblanc]

The higher weight variant might also be due to the fact that Jaime Bautista has publicly said that they would like to stuff 370 seats in the A35Ks. 370 might require a reduction in the J cabin and tighter pitch for Y, so I'm guessing between 350-360 is a more realistic number. With the higher weight variants, they can ferry a lot more people to YYZ. Not sure about JFK. In any case, the yields to YYZ are better than to JFK, as there is less competition in YYZ, and the partnership with WestJet provides a good amount of feed. JFK still needs to find its footing, as even CX manages to undercut PAL's prices there.

[peterpiloto]

AFAIK, PAL’s 15 A333s are at 238T MTOW. The five additional orders that were converted to A321Neos were planned to be at 242T MTOW. There were even plans on deploying them to YVR. So far only 5J operates two heavy weight A333s (RP-C3347 and 3348). The rest are 238T birds.

[Arianespace]

PAL originally ordered 235t variant A330's to replace the 8 old ones but received 238t variants after contract re-negotiations (878x). The 10 additional SMC orders was 240t but reduced instead to seven by LT group (876x) and converted the other three to seven 321Neos that fly Australia now. So in effect PAL has two variants. Meanwhile, CEB operates 235,238, and 240t variants. There is no 242t A330 variant in the Philippines. And there was no 5 A330 additional orders discussed here. The future A330neo order might be.

As to American Airlines interest in the Philippines, no regulatory filing at this time. Usually if an airline wishes to fly here they get permit one-two years prior to launch like TK and NZ did. While the former flew the latter never did. The closes one was Delta to San Francisco. It was filed but what was flown was Singapore instead.

[Evodesire]

So is 5J really going for that A330N instead of 787-10?

[XWB_flyer]

If I recall when SMC had majority stake in PAL there order with Airbus conisist of 34 A321ceo, 10 A321neo, 10 A330-300 and 10 additional A330-300. PAL later revised there orders with the number of A330-300 on order being reduced from 20 to 15. If 3 where converted to 7 A21N I suspect the 2 where likely cancelled. I was under the impression that PAL converted 10 of the 34 A321ceo to A321neo and the 5 A330 where converted to options. But with the A330ceo production going to likely to end soon It becomes increasingly unlikely PAL will activated them.  Know that its mention that 3 of the 5 A330 that where cancelled have been changed to A21N  start to  wonder what happened to 10 of the 34 A321ceo that where originally ordered or some where converted to A321neo and the remainder where cancelled?

[Arianespace]

You are correct on PAL order circa August 2012. If i'm not mistaken there were five re-negotiations about these 2012 orders. Three for SMC and two for LT Group.

My apologies, I was stating 7neo when they should have been 8neo in exchange for 5 A330s. They were canceled due to pressures from the LT Group in March 2014.

PAL got 34 A321ceos, and 10 A321neos or a total of 44 A321s, with 20 A321neo options. These are confirmed commitments in the original deal. They were never changed.

What changes were the options for 20 A321neos as PAL was constrained to order 8 more A321neos out of the option as replacement to the canceled A330 orders. Subsequent renegotiation in 2015 with Airbus resulted to them buying 3 more A321neos for a total of 21 A321neos with deferred delivery date until 2024 instead of 2020. What they have now is 7 A321neos.

But this was made after successfully selling the 10 A321ceos to lessors at a discount before heading to Vietjet which uses them on their fleet. They were originally intended for PAL Express until the direction shifted post SMC.

If you see them losing in the next two years, it is partly because of this deal. PAL leases these fleet at a discount to lessors to make money at a loss under sale-leaseback deals. It prevented them however from bleeding badly on having too many planes with no routes to fly.

Why too many A321s? Part of the fleet now flying for PAL and PALex was meant for Cambodian Air subsidiary which never fly after the LT Group takeover.

[Arianespace]

Evodesire wrote

So is 5J really going for that A330N instead of 787-10?

I have not heard anyone from them yet. But this 252t variant was confirmed to be a game changer. It was not there last year. The devil boils down to detail and nobody spilled them at this time. Probably we'll know in 3 months time.

[Arianespace]

Some good reports from London. It seems that the front seat are always fully booked this year. The bad news is at the back. The A359 has been doing good for PAL since it was flown there. They are thinking of flying back the 777w with the same frequency because they have more seats in the front against doing a daily A359 round to the UK that would affect their load factor. In effect, adding more J class seats. Lets see how this pans out in two months time.