Airlines In The Philippines III

[Solblanc]

Even 5J is conservative and is only flying to DXB and AU for low-cost long-haul.

There's no more space in the bilateral for AU flying.

There's space in the bilateral for DXB, and perhaps DXB could use another player. The market is huge.

5J hasn't even tried to touch Saudi Arabia or any other Gulf State.

What Air Asia can do is seamlessly connect flights to their Malaysian or Thai counterparts. There are some destinations like Kenya that are affordable for Filipinos that want to go on Safari; visas are also pretty easy there.

They can in theory fly to the US via Japan or to HNL, but again, if 5J already saw that it isn't worth it, I'd trust 5J's judgment.

Incidentally, what are the chances that Air Asia will give PAL back some of its 309 seater A330s with the nice biz class? They can't be making money with those planes on those airfares.

[Arianespace]

You will be surprise to know that those planes did wonders for X in Thailand. There is even rumor that they might just return home with the introduction of the X here. In hindsight, I think Fernandes was right about his forecast when 5J ordered 15 widebodies. Those widebodies can be filled in the Philippines. 5J showed that to us now.

[JNC03]

Z2 can deploy A330s to demanding routes like HKG, Japan, BKK etc

Not just long haul routes like Middle East and Australia

[filipinoavgeek]

Solblanc wrote

5J hasn't even tried to touch Saudi Arabia or any other Gulf State.

They actually previously served Riyadh, Dammam, and Doha but they proved to be no match for Saudia and QR and pulled out of those markets. That's actually why the A330s primarily serve regional and sometimes domestic flights instead: they were originally primarily intended for the Middle East but they were crushed there.

Solblanc wrote

There are some destinations like Kenya that are affordable for Filipinos that want to go on Safari; visas are also pretty easy there.

Actually AirAsia X's flights to Nairobi aren't doing so well and they've already downgauged. Apparently they might even be planning to pull out of that route altogether; it turns out that Africa-Malaysia isn't that big of a market (outside maybe Cairo) and there wasn't enough demand to sustain the route long-term.

[justhorace]

But ME remains a substantial market. Government stats show nearly a third of a million Filipinos flew from the Philippines to the region just in the first three months of this year. Just between Saudi Arabia and UAE, almost a million took that outbound route last year.

At the same time, this is still largely driven by the demand for labor in those countries. I'd be damned if they had tourism in mind and teamed up with another LCC, say WizzAir, or do a Scoot and fly directly to Europe. Is Air Asia X looking at other countries, say India?

[filipinoavgeek]

justhorace wrote

Is Air Asia X looking at other countries, say India?

On the contrary, AirAsia pulled out of India after not finding much success there and failing to compete with more established LCCs like IndiGo and Spicejet. Also there was something about regulatory policies that they didn't agree with. The old AirAsia India has now been merged into Air India Express.

[JNC03]

After back to back high earnings, it seems like PAL is too much ready for an aircraft order, anyways Paris airshow almost 1 month and a half away

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

5J will switch their A320N to A321N for their Cebu-Kansai route starting July 2025


https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250501-5j3q25cebkix

[Arianespace]

Emirates, PAL explore expanded partnership

    -Emirates and Philippine Airlines are exploring an expanded partnership through, among others, a reciprocal code sharing agreement on Philippines-Dubai flights;
    -Both carriers will also explore opportunities to enhance their cargo interline cooperation

Emirates and Philippine Airlines (PAL) are exploring an expanded passenger and cargo operations partnership to offer more convenient schedules and improved services to travelers, Emirates said in a statement.

Emirates and PAL recently met at the Arabian Travel Market in Dubai and agreed to consider a reciprocal code sharing agreement on flights between the Philippines and Dubai, and on select routes beyond the gateways of each partner airline.

https://portcalls.com/emirates-pal-explore-expanded-partnership/

In the olden days, code-share means you don't have to fly. You just rent your rights ang get 50% of the seats. That strategy has been prohibited since PAL abused it. Nowadays, the rule is fly if you want to benefit the allocations. Rent seeking allocations prevalent with ME carriers are gone.

[Arianespace]

In addition to these code shares, I hear rumor that BOD intends to keep the 77w for Middle East and Australia flight. That is basically upgrading the seats to the gulf. Which make sense if you go into code shares. Manila is not about to give additional allocations to the gulf region if local airlines wont match the other airline's frequency. According to CAB data, seats to the gulf region are almost always full. Australia is on a similar bind as allocations to both SYD and MEL are both tied to seat numbers. Lets see what happens.

[Evodesire]

Any idea if PAL will still get back those 4 A359s in LH?

[filipinoavgeek]

https://bilyonaryo.com/2025/05/07/touching-down-soon-emirates-to-launch-new-route-in-the-philippines/travel/

The only other possible destination they could serve is Davao. Maybe they'll send their A350s there? QR already serves Davao, after all.

[Solblanc]

It’s may. I haven’t seen any posts about the first A321 going in for refurbishment. Is it still happening?

[gomeved826]

Word on the street is that Emirates is eyeing a triangular route - twice weekly service linking Iloilo and Cagayan de Oro. One rotation would be DXB-ILO-CGY-DXB, and the other DXB-CGY-ILO-DXB. Target launch is October 2026.

Emirates has already secured support from the Department of Tourism (DOT), and Aboitiz, an airport operator that has committed to timely upgrades of the CGY airport.

[filipinoavgeek]

Not sure if that's possible, even if EK uses the A350 instead of the 777. Can CGY or ILO even handle the A350? I know ILO can handle the A330neo, albeit barely (5J is planning to send theirs there soon).

[Arianespace]

Both ILO and CGY are both rated to handle wide-body jets. It just that no airline operates one as airlines rather prefer multiple frequency, but that could change soon.

[Arianespace]

They are let for 6 years, renewable for another 6. It is not known if they are going to be renewed.

Evodesire wrote

Any idea if PAL will still get back those 4 A359s in LH?

[Arianespace]

That is the PAL code-share in effect. That is not something new. It has been in effect in the past. Until CAB prohibited such practices because PAL became rent seeker, if you know what that means. They also have licenses to fly DVO but manages to fly only to CEB, unlike QR which followed the rules.

[Arianespace]

Lets be honest, EK flight or any ME flights are never meant for tourism, unlike those going to East Asia.

[filipinoavgeek]

IIRC there was something about the A330neo being able to use ILO's runway, but there would be a payload or fuel penalty. This meant it MNL-ILO on the A330neo is feasible, but not medium-haul let alone long-haul.