Airlines In The Philippines III

[filipinoavgeek]

So once the A35Ks come online (and maybe if they get the A359s back), PR might return to London?

[Arianespace]

They will do that next year as Stan said they would return to Europe in 2026. I doubt however if its the 35k. I would like to believe that it would be the 359. Most likely scenario is east coast being replaced by 35k first.

[filipinoavgeek]

I thought the A359s were not coming back for the foreseeable future, if ever? Especially with the 777X delays and Lufthansa wanting to keep planes until then; it's why they brought back the A380s after all.

[romantic_guy08]

 Xi Jinping has just ordered Chinese airlines to suspend deliveries of Boeing jets due to the on-going trade war with the United States...  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/china-tells-airlines-stop-taking-boeing-jets-as-trump-tariffs-expand-trade-war

Might these present opportunities to PR to take up these deliveries? Or would Boeing rather store these airframes that China wont take delivery of?

[JNC03]

RP-C8614 will be back in service now under PALEx after 6 years of storage

[Arianespace]

They could but they would not.

You see, airlines pay a significant portion of the purchase price (ie 10-15 %) before delivery so Boeing has already received down-payment for these planes. If the airline does not take delivery based on the contract terms, Boeing is free to remarket the plane and keep the deposit. Remember the PAL 4 undelivered B747? PR was forced to take 77W in lieu of 346 and apply deposit payments there. Fortunately for them they have the same GECAS and US Exim bank to finance those jets.

Chinese carriers has already taken delivery of Boeing 787s and 737 maxes. So they would not be affected. New orders could be.  PAL could theoretically purchase other 787s or 737 max that other Chinese airlines failed to take delivery similar to what El Al did, but the price would still be the same, unless Boeing sell it at steep discount less deposit payments, which usually happen when you take substantial frames, in the fold of Ryan Air or Fly Dubai. Most likely interest would be the 787s but there would be other airlines too who might want to start bidding war with PR for the same freed frames.

[JNC03]

The A319 went to Japan earlier today

[JNC03]

Expect to see first PAL A35K in the final assembly line on June in TLS

No cabin reveal yet

[JNC03]

Here are the delivery schedule for PAL A35Ks as per ATDB

MSN 758 - DEC 2025
MSN 778 - FEB 2026
MSN 786 - APR 2026
MSN 792 - MAY 2026

[Solblanc]

They’ll miss the Christmas rush. Sayang. We won’t realistically see the west coast consistently getting new product until Q4 2026.

[Arianespace]

They were originally slated to arrive October and December before delivery schedule was moved 2 months further.

[romantic_guy08]

Arianespace wrote

They were originally slated to arrive October and December before delivery schedule was moved 2 months further.

was this an Airbus delay or PR decision?

[Arianespace]

PR requested for its deferral due to funding issues. They could have delivery as early as April if Airbus has its way.

[filipinoavgeek]

This is directed to Arianespace: as far as you know, what are the other airlines that could potentially launch services to MNL in the near future, based on slot applications? Among them, which ones are most likely to actually launch? I've heard that VietJet, Batik Air Malaysia, and Air India among others have applications, and I think even Lufthansa does.

[Arianespace]

Your listed airline is not there yet. Among the passenger airlines applicant waiting for better slots are:

air new Zealand
Finnair
American
tap
air astana
lot
sri lankan
el al
british airways
delta
Jordanian
air Mauritius
kenya airways

Air France United and Air Canada used to be part of that group

[filipinoavgeek]

Most of those don't even seem plausible airlines. I don't think Air Mauritius, for example, would want to serve Manila since they're already focusing on Kuala Lumpur. American is very weak in Asia so they seem unlikely too. The only ones that seem plausible are Air New Zealand (I'm surprised no one has tried MNL-AKL again post-pandemic), Delta, British (MNL-LHR remains a sizable market and PR might consider bringing it back once they have the planes), and maybe Jordanian given the OFW traffic. Not sure if Air Astana would consider Manila, I don't think the Manila-Central Asia market is big. Then again, AirAsia X launched Kuala Lumpur-Almaty recently.

[Arianespace]

They wouldn't bother to apply offline if they are not interested. Just saying. That is prelude to actual flight. If they bothered to apply then they have intent to fly. Central asia traffic is huge going to boracay and palawan, not necessarily Manila. There used to be alot of charters to Kalibo from Russia and Kazakstan pre-covid. Interestingly, Aeroflot is no longer there. So this could be the substitute.

[Gustavo J Oppenheimer]

El Al also has a chance especially for those who want to go directly to Israel, depends if they still want to use Saudi Arabian and Omani airspace that is, AFAIK they temporarily stopped using them back in late-2023 due to security concerns fueled by the ISR-PLE war

[JNC03]

Air Astana operates on A321neos, it is feasible to mount Manila flights during summer time

[filipinoavgeek]

I was going to mention El Al too because of both the pilgrim and OFW traffic, but left them out because I can't see them launching MNL at least in the short-to-medium term due to the conflict over there. IIRC, before the current conflict began they were actually close to launching flights.