Airlines In The Philippines II

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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

XWB_flyer

Sepaking of the A35K Eithad currently operates a 371 pax version with "J44 Y327" my assumption is if PAL chooses the A351 it will have ranged of between 353 to 365 seat depending on the final configuration.

Duel-class config:
44 Business class 1-2-1 (44" pitch 23" width)
321 Economy class 3-3-3 (32" pitch 18" width)

Tri-class config:
44 Business class 1-2-1 (44" pitch 23" width)
24 Premium Economy 2-4-2 (38" pitch 19" width)
285 Economy Class 3-3-3 (32" pitch 18" width)

Here is EY seat map for there A35K which is one seat higher then PAL B77W
https://www.etihad.com/content/dam/eag/etihadairways/etihadcom/Global/products/fleet/a350/a350-seat-map-01.jpg
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

Eurest
This post was updated on .
I think passenger volume still matters to PR, thus keeping all 10(8) B77W
Retraining all of the flight crew of the B77W will take time and would be costlier, that said PR already operate A359 and could slowly just retrain the A359 crew to A35K, while promoting A333 certifieds into A359 and so on and so forth.
Are PR's B77W flight crew certified for A359 or A333? Because if they are, then there is 1 less point for a 777X as B77W replacement.
Is that one of the reason why they kept 2? And did I now just understand why Arianespace & XWB Flyer (who's probably a PR A359 flight crew w/ that name, at the very least a cruise one) for why they think the PR B77W will be replaced with A35Ks?

I asked about the 2019 2+2 B777X offer, structured in the same way as the B77W 2+2 offer with an initial 4 year lease w/ an option to extend further 4 years. And it was for B777X, and not specifically for the 9.
The only thing that points to a 9 was the photo, but even the caption stated 777X

The EY A35K is interesting w/ 44J 45Y+ 282Y@31" pitch as EY had 2 B77W bi-class, the HD ones to MNL @ 28J & 374Y & the 40J 330Y @ 370pax. So Airbus did 1 up the Boeing for EY. Literally XD
The PR A359 & B77W do have a generous 33" pitch for Y, so it would be safe to assume a PR A35K would maintain 33" pitch?
Would PR then go for the catalogue Collins Super Diamond? It seems only QR with their bespoke Qsuites as the only A35K w/out a reverse herringbone J

The bigger question is, is the A359 the other of the 2 widebody types to the A35K? Or does PR consider them as 1 as they are A350s?
Don't tell me there's a chance to see Dreamliners in PR livery? There's none right? Right?


I forgot about 5J's RFP for financing A320NEO family deliveries slated for 4Q'22 and '23
I did not realize 5J would go all NEO by '27, ans yes A320 and A330 NEOs

Is 2027 significant for the Philippines? That's also when the 10th B77W's lease is set to expire...

edited to add the last 2 paragraphs
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

Arianespace
Administrator
If we think about passenger volume, PAL 77w would have seated 428 for their fleet. Yet all was not configured that way. It just have 370. Surely, that does not speak well about capacity but range.

Similarly, CX 77w is not configured to have 428 seats. What they had is 398 seats for their dense configuration. Also does not speak well about passenger volume.

Like I said, PAL would love to have 386Y and 42J for a total seat of 428 on its 77w if it had the range to fly North America. It doesn't. We are talking long haul here.

And the story does not stop there. The eight 414 seater A333 originally bound for middle east was reconfigured to 309 seats to reach its farthest route HNL, originally served by A340.

It is admitted that all PR A333 can fly to as far as LAX. I've seen two flights doing fetch to stranded passengers. But it would be impossible to do transpac even with 150 passengers, more so with 309 souls. So yes, range does play a vital issue.

A similar scenario can be said about PR regional, as PR manages to seat only 168 (12J-156Y) of their A321neos for Oz out of possible 199 seats. It is also admitted that 198 seater A21N can equally reach OZ. The latter flight however would have plenty of block seats, and would most likely carry the same number of passengers as the former has with its capacity.

So you see, payload does play a major consideration for fleet planners at PAL. Although, domestic, Asean, and ME flights subscribe to passenger volume, because maximum passengers and payload can be equally matched with the range of the plane.

Now. about 77w replacement, It's not about what we think PR should have. Its about what fleet planners think its best for their airline to have after evaluating both offers from both manufacturers. which some saw the 35k to be the better plane. Personally, I would love them to have both planes.

There was one picture taken that says it all which i could no longer find. Of course I did not understood the importance of it until I was told that I just witnessed a "sneak peek" of their future fleet in 2018. Certainly it ain't Boeing. But that was in 2018. They have new leaders now, and probably new fleet planning team too. And maybe Boeing also has new data Airbus doesn't have yet to sway decision in their favor come 2024. Well see.


Eurest wrote
Is 2027 significant for the Philippines? That's also when the 10th B77W's lease is set to expire...
A new mega airport opens to the public.
Making Sense
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

XWB_flyer
Arianespace wrote
And the story does not stop there. The eight 414 seater A333 originally bound for middle east was reconfigured to 309 seats to reach its farthest route HNL, originally served by A340.

It is admitted that all PR A333 can fly to as far as LAX. I've seen two flights doing fetch to stranded passengers. But it would be impossible to do transpac even with 150 passengers, more so with 309 souls. So yes, range does play a vital issue.

A similar scenario can be said about PR regional, as PR manages to seat only 168 (12J-156Y) of their A321neos for Oz out of possible 199 seats. It is also admitted that 198 seater A21N can equally reach OZ. The latter flight however would have plenty of block seats, and would most likely carry the same number of passengers as the former has with its capacity.
This has actually quite bothered me about PAL A321neo SR there configuration they choose is max out at 195 seats they could have retain the 199 had door's three been retained and only one pair of over wings exit as its max capacity is 215 any more higher then it will require all exit to be made available. Makes me wonder if GAP will received there own configuration if they received there first A321neo in the near future or will it be the same as with PAL?

I don't think PAL will operate anything then the A321neo athough the same can't be said for GAP which I could see operate the A320neo in the future. Could be used for international flights while keeping the A320ceo for domestic runs through the decade.
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

Eurest
In reply to this post by Arianespace
I don't think the A333s can do MNL-LAX non-stop as they would need 15 hrs unless they were empty or on a crazy jetsream, the comparable flight time would be that of an A343 as they both cruise much slower than even the B744
They're also on PBH, their contracts might restrict them up to 11hrs. I also don't think their center tanks are activated, but I guess someone PR A333 certified can illuminate that for us.
The 309s were meant for IST. DME. FCO, FRA right? So if they were, MNL-YVR would be possible
PR's initial 4 A343 were 7100nm rated, with the ex-IB ones the 7400nm ones from 2008

The B77W defaults to 370 @ 7375nm in 2005, when the 2+2 was signed.
Boeing would have to guarantee the PR B77W to LAX-MNL nonstop, so it offered a 375 pax config

We don't see 400 seater B77W until 2010, made possible perhaps with GE90-115 PiPs and the range increases to 7600+ and then 7800+
But the Boeing sales offer then (2009ish) was for 8 B788 (A333/343 replacements?) and 4 B748i (B744 replacements?) w/c Airbus won with 414 & 363 A333s in 10+10
So PR still wanted atleast 350+
All of this is moot & academic now after Farnborough '22

Again XWB Flyer's highlight of the EY A35K proves prophetic
After the first 5 A35K in 371 pax replacing their 370pax B77W, "they'll have an add'l seat per row"
The 6th EY A35K will supposedly go 10 abreast to over 400pax (404 supposedly, their hi-density B77W was 402)
Airbus is supposedly sculpting the A35K's inner fuselage, the way Boeing got an extra 4" for the B777X
At 10 abreast, PR can flex on 5J with a 400 pax A35K for ME missions w/ an ME3 comparable jet, and can still use them in mechanical emergency substitutions by just blocking of a # of seats (the way EK uses their 400seater B77W on 15hr flights to MCO) to NA
Since EY is going 400+, and Al-Maktoum was the one in a conversation with an EY executive where this "info" was leaked, EK is probably going 10 abreast A35K as well
The same way all the B77W eventually went 10 abreast with EK & AF going 10 abreast, threst of the industry will have to compete.
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

Arianespace
Administrator
In reply to this post by XWB_flyer
XWB_flyer wrote
This has actually quite bothered me about PAL A321neo SR there configuration they choose is max out at 195 seats they could have retain the 199 had door's three been retained and only one pair of over wings exit as its max capacity is 215 any more higher then it will require all exit to be made available. Makes me wonder if GAP will received there own configuration if they received there first A321neo in the near future or will it be the same as with PAL?
Perhaps this can help answer your question. Note on the maximum payload. You can multiply the number of passengers to the kilogram of all their baggage to give you a rough idea, and compare it to this graph if it fits. The rest has more to do with the lessor and not the airline.


http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=&R=2000nm%40mnl&MS=bm&MR=540&MX=540x540&PM=*

GAP will just have the dense 21N.
Making Sense
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

XWB_flyer
Arianespace wrote
XWB_flyer wrote
This has actually quite bothered me about PAL A321neo SR there configuration they choose is max out at 195 seats they could have retain the 199 had door's three been retained and only one pair of over wings exit as its max capacity is 215 any more higher then it will require all exit to be made available. Makes me wonder if GAP will received there own configuration if they received there first A321neo in the near future or will it be the same as with PAL?
Perhaps this can help answer your question. Note on the maximum payload. You can multiply the number of passengers to the kilogram of all their baggage to give you a rough idea, and compare it to this graph if it fits. The rest has more to do with the lessor and not the airline.


http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=&R=2000nm%40mnl&MS=bm&MR=540&MX=540x540&PM=*

GAP will just have the dense 21N.
I was mostly referring to the number of emergency exits on PAL A321neo SR which has 4 doors and two pairs of over wing exits. Although that said I do agreed that GAP will likely received a denser 21N probably with 6 doors and both pairs of over wing exit as its the most flexible configuration for there operations!

An article back in 2016 about the ACF Configurations
https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2016/08/airbus-explains-how-cabin-flex-enables-dense-a321neo-layouts/
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

Eurest
I'm not sure if I understand as well, but isn't PR's A321SR the most prevalent ACF with L2/R2 deleted, with the pair of overwing exits and then L3/R3 pushed back
Though one of the overwing exits is optional, one door is still deleted I think
That said, I also remember the demonstrator with 4 doors and 2 overwing exits

Perhaps the Airbus ACAAMP of the A321 can help
Or the Airbus Cabin Configuration tool

Unfortunately, the actual available options for A321NEO ACF need Airbus World credentials
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

XWB_flyer
I think there is a possibility PAL will have a separate domestic configured A21N for high-density domestic ops which will operated by GAP with the A320 being re-configured for all-econony I wonder if PAL intends to offer three zones of economy like Premium similar to "Eurobusiness" where the middle seat can blocked while having a 32" pitch. Plus has 30" pitch and the middle seat isn't blocked but has additional feautures like PED holders, 110V power outlet and both Type A and C USB power ports. While Standard is basic will consist of majority of the seats with 29" pitch, pre-reclined and only Type A and C USB-ports.

As for premium routes PAL can still offer Business Class using there own birds for CGY, CEB, BCD, ILO, DVO and GES.
While GAP takes over the leisure routes with there mono-class A321neo like TAG, PPS and ZAM. While supplementing CGY, CEB, BCD, ILO and DVO.

I base it mostly on Lufthansa configuration for there A321neo:
https://www.lufthansa.com/se/en/32q
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

Arianespace
Administrator
When completed, PAL’s A320s will have 24 extra seats to bring the total seat count to 180, a configuration that suits the airline’s requirements for short-haul inter-island domestic routes.
https://mb.com.ph/2022/02/19/pal-adds-more-economy-seats/

Only the A320 seat will be redone to 180. That is the maximum number. Meaning, no more business class. The A321 seats stay as it is.

Making Sense
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Re: Hopes & Assumptions for PR future fleet

XWB_flyer
I was mostly speculating for a future A321neo order for GAP I decided to not included the A321ceo as most will probably be returned to there lessor in the coming years. Though I suspect some those owned by PAL will probably stay for domestic operations by GAP and won't likely be replace until PAL Holdings makes a new order in the future most likely after the current contract is completed around the late-2020s or Early 2030s.

Anyways the A320s being configured for all-econony those make sense since most will be used for domestic or low-yield routes by GAP also just realized they aren't new seats rather are spare BL3510 which are the same seat model found the 86×× A320-200 which where previously two-class. I wonder though will PAL order the A320neo in the future once the A320ceo reach 20+ years old or will just up-gauge to the A321neo instead which seems to be the path there going for. However I do think it may leave out secondary hubs like CEB although who knows! maybe passenger growth will be able to sustained that in the future! Another scanario is PAL will order a new type maybe the A220-500 assuming AB will launch larger version for the A220 family.

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MNL-SIN 4th busiest APAC route

Eurest
Again perhaps to underscore the growth potential of MNL for airlines,
MNL-SIN is now the 4th busiest APAC Int'l route, compared to 2019 when it was the 21st overall
For SIN, it's actually the route closest to recovering into 2019 volume
Most other routes are 30-65% of their 2019 volume, while MNL is at 85% of 2019 traffic

In 2019, both PR & 5J were sending A333s to SIN, but we now see A21N or A321 for MNL-SIN.
The safe assumption would be that MNL-SIN's numbers is that SQ has increased its market share from NA, ANZ & Europe to MNL & vice versa
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Re: MNL-SIN 4th busiest APAC route

XWB_flyer
Both Philippine Airlines  and Singapore Airlines operated 28 weekly flights between SIN-MNL. Meanwhile Cebu Pacific  operated 21 weekly and Scoot Airoperates 14 weekly. Not sure how many also Jetstar Asia and Philippine Air Asia operates though I believed more then one a day.

With four LCC in the market its unlikely PAL will be directly competing with them especially with 5J using there A330-300 and A330-900neo and in the future Scoot will probably send there B787 Dreamliner to the market which previously where unable to do as they where under Tigerair. Though currently there sending the A321neo. In the future I expect both PAA and Jetstar to deployed there A321neo if demand continues to grow in a post-pandemic era.

With that said PAL main competitor is probably SQ which is deploying there Regional A350-900 with 303 seats and B787-10 with 337 seats. PAL usually deployed there A321-200 to the market with 199 seats at other times the A321neoLR with 168 seats though 1-2 (PR507/509) of the daily frequency used Wide-body aircraft the Tri-class A330-300 and either the A350-900 or B777-300ER which assigned the route after completing a Transpacific flight from SFO, LAX, YVR,  YYZ and JFK.

With PAL long-haul fleet temporarily at reduced number there using the ME configured A330-300 to covered the route instead of the A350-900 and B777-300ER. However once the number of A350-900 returned to 6 I could see the A350-900 return to operate the PR507/510 while PR509/511 operated by a medium-hauler either the A330neo or B787 Dreamliner with it flying Transpacific or to Australia or New Zealand as rotation.
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Re: MNL-SIN 4th busiest APAC route

seven13
If I’m not wrong, PR has been sending the A321ceo to SIN 4x daily, on some time the A21acf. The 876X series is busy doing the ME routes. PR has also been fielding the 878X series to DOH and DXB which used to be operated by the 876X series.

As per the A321neoLR, they’re currently being used to all JPN flights alongside the ACF. PR432, which used to be operated by the 878X series is being served by the A321ceo (basing on FR24). Both SYD and MEL are currently being flown by the 878X series.

BKK (PR730/731) is currently flown by the A321ceo which used to be an 876X aircraft.

There’s PR114 every Su, used to be an hour apart from PR104 but currently timed similar to PR112 (day flight).
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Re: MNL-SIN 4th busiest APAC route

XWB_flyer
I probably won't be surprised once delivery resumes in 3-4 years time PAL will deployed the A321neo SR to more destinations within Asia I also think they will keep some A321ceo for domestic operations or expanding from secondary hubs like Clark, Cebu and Davao.

Its interesting to see the A330-300 returned to SYD, MEL while DOH gets the Tri-class configuration. MH was rumoured to order the A330neo during the Farnborough Air Show. However nothing cam of it! Also recently they've started Re-configuring there B737-800 probably with domestic used in mind. While there Premium Routes are served by the A332/A333 like MNL which previously was served with the B738.
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Re: MNL-SIN 4th busiest APAC route

seven13
I am thinking the same. the more A321neoSR comes online, it will slowly replace the A321ceo routes from Manila. The CEO will likewise continue plying domestic routes or some transferred to 2P. It can also be used to the likes of HAN and PNH for starters until the route matures.
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PAL Restructuring

Arianespace
Administrator
Correct.

PAL new A321neo is actually for overseas expansion. The remaining thirteen (13) Airbus 321-231 NEO aircraft for delivery between 2026 and 2029 has this amenities.



No XLR from these remaining breed. They are meant to replace existing A321ceo fleet for regional routes. The existing CEOs in PAL fleet together with others in GAP shall be relegated to domestic operations. You should distinguish them from having this look.



There is actually no operational benefit operating NEOs to shorthaul, particularly domestic, if we consider differential cost between the two. CEO would do. For a leg more than 2 hours, difference sets in.

You can figure out why here
https://www.fpg-amentum.aero/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/180719-FPG-Amentum-research-A320-NEO-vs-CEO-comparison-study.pdf
Making Sense
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Re: PAL Restructuring

XWB_flyer
If I was head of fleet operations I'd probably assigned the A321neo on flights over 2.3 hours for both of PAL hubs MNL and CEB though I'd probably have a few A321ceo be re-configured too to operate a select number of regional routes such as HKG, TPE, SGN, XMN, etc. While the remainder of the A321ceo will be 199 for domestic operations it seems PE is selling well for those network despite the flight barely lasting 2 hours.

Speaking of domestic I notice PAL has been using the A321 between MNL and GES rather then the A330 or any Widebody could be competition or lacked of widebody types. Regardless I belived its the longest domestic route in PAL network so either the A321ceo or neo those make perfect sense.

It also makes me question PAL needs for a dedicated freighter like the A321P2F or a smaller type may be better suited like the DHC 8-Q400 F-LCD (forward large cargo door), which will launched by Ethipoian Airlines using there older DH8! I wonder if HAP still has some old Q400 available for conversion?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thenigerianvoice.com/amp/news/310383/ethiopian-airlines-group-signs-proposal-with-de-havilland-ca.html
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Re: PAL Restructuring

Eurest
There were some speculation over at the other forums regarding the A333s because of LTPs recent announcement

Is it still safe to assume that all A333s are on a similar intended time frame to the returned ones, and will start to leave the fleet 4Q 2026 to 2027?
Since the Fly Leasing BBAM managed returned A333s were on a 12 year lease from 2H2013?
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Re: PAL Restructuring

Arianespace
Administrator
The assumption is incorrect. It would have been had the situation stayed the same. C11 changes everything. Including contracts, and so does its MRO extensions. Expect them to stay longer. The old A330 service life would be a clue on how far the replacement would go on retirement.

https://twitter.com/LHTechnik/status/1551545749258866689



Making Sense
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