Airlines In The Philippines IV

[Arianespace]

And there are more Filipino expats there than the rest of the gulf region combined.

[filipinoavgeek]

Arianespace wrote

I once saw demand figures for MNL-OKA at OAG before. Cannot find them now, but it was dismal. Twice a week A319 service couldn't even cut it. That is how low it was. But that was before Covid.

The analysis was from just last year, so I imagine things have changed post-Covid. It's the same one that said that MNL-DEL and MNL-CTS were major unserved markets (this was, of course, before AI and 5J's launches respectively).

Arianespace wrote

As for CNX, passengers preferred BKK stopover. PAL stopped eventually because of poor yield. But that was also before covid.

It makes me wonder then why PR couldn't make CNX work but 5J did, other than being cheaper. Maybe the market has changed since then?

[markpaul]

Hi Arian

What about Cairns (CNS) or Darwin (DRW)

Is there is a market for these Australian cities? Not sure if all air agreements are utilised between PH and Australia. Tired of using Air Niugini to Cairns. Flew PR to POM and PX to CNS several times. Good thing luggage are tagged to CNS as final destination.


I’m hoping PAL will also fly to new Western Sydney Airport which will open next year. So many Filipino in western Sydney Blacktown and sorrounds.

 

[filipinoavgeek]

markpaul wrote

Hi Arian

What about Cairns (CNS) or Darwin (DRW)

Is there is a market for these Australian cities? Not sure if all air agreements are utilised between PH and Australia. Tired of using Air Niugini to Cairns. Flew PR to POM and PX to CNS several times. Good thing luggage are tagged to CNS as final destination.


I’m hoping PAL will also fly to new Western Sydney Airport which will open next year. So many Filipino in western Sydney Blacktown and sorrounds.

PR previously served CNS when they initially launched AKL: the route was MNL-CNS-AKL. They dropped CNS when AKL went nonstop. I'm not sure if there's enough demand for CNS by itself. As for DRW, PR used to serve it for many years, but eventually stopped. I can't remember if it was due to low yield or low passenger volumes. DRW as a market has struggled in general outside of a few destinations, including recently SIN and DPS, so it's not really a surprise to see PR not re-entering the market. I imagine that the route is also too light to have an A321neo serve it, but maybe an A320neo or even the A320ceo could do it (I know the ceo could fly the route).

[seven13]

DRW was served alongside BNE as a tag on triangular flight.
And yes, CNS was served by PR on the way to AKL in both directions using the A320

[romantic_guy08]

filipinoavgeek wrote

markpaul wrote

Hi Arian

What about Cairns (CNS) or Darwin (DRW)

Is there is a market for these Australian cities? Not sure if all air agreements are utilised between PH and Australia. Tired of using Air Niugini to Cairns. Flew PR to POM and PX to CNS several times. Good thing luggage are tagged to CNS as final destination.


I’m hoping PAL will also fly to new Western Sydney Airport which will open next year. So many Filipino in western Sydney Blacktown and sorrounds.

PR previously served CNS when they initially launched AKL: the route was MNL-CNS-AKL. They dropped CNS when AKL went nonstop. I'm not sure if there's enough demand for CNS by itself. As for DRW, PR used to serve it for many years, but eventually stopped. I can't remember if it was due to low yield or low passenger volumes. DRW as a market has struggled in general outside of a few destinations, including recently SIN and DPS, so it's not really a surprise to see PR not re-entering the market. I imagine that the route is also too light to have an A321neo serve it, but maybe an A320neo or even the A320ceo could do it (I know the ceo could fly the route).

AKL is a route that I'm hoping PR can restart...

Love travelling to NZ... and a non stop option will be really welcomed... there were a lot of us connecting via MEL/SYD...

There is a big Filipino community in AKL alone... we saw that during the Women's World Cup in 2023 when majority of the 33k plus that watched the PH vs Norway game were Filipinos... and this is just those living in AKL or even North Island... doesnt count the large community living in Wellington and the rest of the South Island... there's a clamor of PAL to come back...

AKL might be a good destination for an A321 XLR if it has the legs to do it...

[Solblanc]

NZ economy is not doing too well. Lots of pinoys, yes, but they’re struggling. And moving to Australia. PAL just doesn’t have enough widebodies (to this day, MEL gets an occasional Middle East bird when the other 330s go tech) But ultimately, NZ has so many one-stop options from CX and QF. Not easy to compete without an extra 330. 321NEO won’t be able to make it as it’s almost as far as HNL.

DRW used to have lots of Pinoy workers but they stopped hiring before the pandemic. Would be a good E190-E2 route though.

[Arianespace]

In 2018, 5 LRs were envisioned to work down under. Since then, PAL has taken only 2 LRs. Its rotating in PER and BNE. None LRs are seen in these destinations. Goes to show they are light. No words about the 3 remaining frames. Thus, I said they "could" be reconsidering the XLR. It was not there before when the A321neo order was amended. If they agree to have 150 pax on the XLR they could effectively cover AKL with substantial payload, and the rest on the middle east too.

[filipinoavgeek]

Fleet issues aside (on PR's part), MH has been able to make AKL work for ages, and as far as I know, the Malaysian community in New Zealand is smaller than the Philippines'. Maybe it's because of their shared British/Commonwealth heritage?

[Solblanc]

filipinoavgeek wrote

Fleet issues aside (on PR's part), MH has been able to make AKL work for ages, and as far as I know, the Malaysian community in New Zealand is smaller than the Philippines'. Maybe it's because of their shared British/Commonwealth heritage?

MH is a network carrier. They don't rely on O/D alone. Their AKL flights connect to Southeast Asia and London.

PAL is a point to point carrier. They do have connecting traffic, but transiting in NAIA is not the most pleasant experience, and there are simply not enough slots to be able to flexibly create departure and arrival banks that will channel traffic both ways. The way PAL's network is structured, they can only funnel traffic well to destinations such as Japan, Hong Kong, and LAX, where the multiple frequencies can connect to other destinations with less frequencies. But that connecting traffic is just a tiny amount compared to the likes of MH, SQ, and CX.

Also, Malaysians don't need a visa to go to New Zealand.

[Arianespace]

Agreed. Its a product of commonwealth heritage. Most of their passengers are either LHR bound or AKL. Few goes to Malaysia. So O&D. PAL meanwhile is PTP. Most of its passengers stops in MNL, with connections only ancillary. Witnessed it myself at T2 before. PR restarted the kangaroo network down under only to be stopped by the Ukraine war as EU prevented PAL from flying the Russian Airspace to Europe. We are still flying Siberia up to now to their displeasure. The new Trump directive would probably change that route as 35K is earmarked for JFK. Expect a longer detour. While they are still using it, I'm posting it for posterity.

[filipinoavgeek]

Solblanc wrote

MH is a network carrier. They don't rely on O/D alone. Their AKL flights connect to Southeast Asia and London.

PAL is a point to point carrier. They do have connecting traffic, but transiting in NAIA is not the most pleasant experience, and there are simply not enough slots to be able to flexibly create departure and arrival banks that will channel traffic both ways. The way PAL's network is structured, they can only funnel traffic well to destinations such as Japan, Hong Kong, and LAX, where the multiple frequencies can connect to other destinations with less frequencies. But that connecting traffic is just a tiny amount compared to the likes of MH, SQ, and CX.

So once NMIA comes online, or even the NSCR to Clark is finished, then PR can expand even more and become a network carrier too? Or has that ship already sailed?

[Solblanc]

Just because they can, does that mean that they should?

Point to point will always make more money than connections. Look at what PAL charges for MNL-LAX. Then look at what they charge for BKK-MNL-LAX.

Also look at what they charge for MEL-MNL and compare that to MEL-MNL-HND

There are so many network carriers out there. Within just 3~hrs flying distance, you have CX, SQ, MH, BR, CI, JX. What would make MNL a better transit spot compared to HKG, TPE, SIN, KUL? And in this day and age where the range of planes are getting longer and longer, making nonstops feasible, why connect at a hub at all?

Let’s look at successful O/D carriers. JAL. ANA. Virgin Atlantic. For the Japanese carriers, they do offer connections. But it’s not their bread and butter. Connections are just a cherry on top to help with profitability.

Once NMIA opens, PAL can indeed make proper departure and arrival banks there (assuming that NAIA closes and we move to NMIA). But ultimately, their routes will have to be sustained by higher-yielding P2P traffic.

If anything, P2P traffic is what gives PAL some unique destinations. None of the network carriers in our region serve HNL, for example. And PAL is one of the few carriers to serve POM. AKL can definitely happen in the future with the right equipment. Just not now

[filipinoavgeek]

Maybe it's just a bit of envy to see other carriers in the region serving destinations that PR doesn't serve, such as AKL, PEN, much of India and China, etc. Plus, they serve Europe while PR currently can't (mostly for geopolitical reasons). Looking at PR's route map compared to its neighbors, its Southeast Asian network is pretty weak, which is disappointing for a Southeast Asian flag carrier. On the other hand, maybe the grass is greener on the other side, considering PR has the largest North American network among the SEA carriers (barring I guess SQ), which is a market that is PR's strength and which the other carriers are not even bothering with anymore (even VN's North American operations are much smaller than PR's).

[Evodesire]

About the PAL new aircraft order announcement, will they also exercise the 3 A350 options? In 2023, Stan said that there was a high chance they would exercise it given the travel demand. It never happened. Now, can they still exercise those 3 options?

[xzibit31]

filipinoavgeek wrote

markpaul wrote

Hi Arian

What about Cairns (CNS) or Darwin (DRW)

Is there is a market for these Australian cities? Not sure if all air agreements are utilised between PH and Australia. Tired of using Air Niugini to Cairns. Flew PR to POM and PX to CNS several times. Good thing luggage are tagged to CNS as final destination.


I’m hoping PAL will also fly to new Western Sydney Airport which will open next year. So many Filipino in western Sydney Blacktown and sorrounds.

PR previously served CNS when they initially launched AKL: the route was MNL-CNS-AKL. They dropped CNS when AKL went nonstop. I'm not sure if there's enough demand for CNS by itself. As for DRW, PR used to serve it for many years, but eventually stopped. I can't remember if it was due to low yield or low passenger volumes. DRW as a market has struggled in general outside of a few destinations, including recently SIN and DPS, so it's not really a surprise to see PR not re-entering the market. I imagine that the route is also too light to have an A321neo serve it, but maybe an A320neo or even the A320ceo could do it (I know the ceo could fly the route).

I once flew to CNS back when PR still had the MNL–CNS–AKL route, and I was in business class. There were only two of us in biz, and everyone else was in economy. When we landed in CNS, the two of us in business were the only ones who got off there.

On the return trip from CNS to MNL, it was the same story — only two of us boarded in CNS. Again, just the two of us in business class, and there were barely any passengers in economy.

[JNC03]

First PAL A35K is already at the delivery center of Airbus

The customer acceptance flight is done

[filipinoavgeek]

Just in time for Christmas?

[seven13]

filipinoavgeek wrote

Just in time for Christmas?

I heard that the arrival is around Dec 19.

[Evodesire]

Before Christmas. Right on schedule.