New Manila International Airport (NMIA)

[Arianespace]

[Solblanc]

It’s nice that the government is humoring SMC, but given their track record in caticlan, I’ll believe this when I see it. And even when I see it, this can’t really be viable unless they close NAIA or Clark. And Clark will get a train before they can finish building a single runway.

[Arianespace]

Well, DOTR has said otherwise. This is what Tugade said straight from the horses mouth.



RJ Nieto has made a good presentation as to why this is so, confirming necessity to have a new airport.

Never mind the politics but the guy is right. Even with Clark around, it wouldn't still be enough.

[Arianespace]

This may not be what it seems. Regardless of RSA claim, the actual terminal looks different than the render. Good PR stunt though.  

[Airboy]

Would you have any of the final designs? Coz nothing seems to be accurate online regarding NMIA designs so far 😒

[arema]

Arianespace, can you care to expound what you mean by "the actual terminal looks different than the render"?

[idp5601]

I seriously hope they don't pull another MPH on us.

[Arianespace]

There are two layouts presented. One resembles semi-circle Terminal  with 2 runways in between similar to Incheon T1 without the two piers. The other is linear with only one runway. The latter assumes SMC failing to secure airline relocation contracts from either PAL or  CEB. San Miguel doesnt want Don Quixote out of Bulacan.

There is no final structural design for the terminal as we speak as they are waiting for that contract to be signed. Information about that could be available as early as November.  By that time, layout could change again as they are capacity dependent.

Why this is important?

A domestic airline making this airport home brings about 10-18 million passengers in 2025 with premium and exclusive parking positions and plenty of expansion possibilities on it. That alone justifies building a 25 million capacity terminal for one airline in just one roof on opening date. Add to that a couple of international carriers joining them. That basically secures viability of the grandious project investment wise.

Take note, there is no government guarantee, ie force relocation like Bangkok, Incheon, Tokyo, and the like. It should be the airlines choice. If no airlines commit to fly there SMC wont even bother to build the first runway.

AAP contract and smaller arlines would make this airport work together with a single runway and a smaller linear PTB similar to T3 but that won't be enough. It needs more traffic to the tune of 5 million to make it viable which I think is doable given MNL constraint. It is also not as capital intensive as the former demanded. Its return however is comparatively low and with that its development. If we know by then which contract they secure will we know which direction they are heading.

The bright side, Chinese and Korean carriers interest to fly Bulacan is lining up. And these are A320/B737 operators. Middle east-based airlines are also wanting to operate at this airport offering up to 20 flights daily. This should spell bad news for Clark, Cebu and Davao. A contract however similar to that asked by a domestic airline also require them to build airport express train to Bocaue junction or on the way to Metro Manila on opening date or they wont sign at all. Tough job for SMC, yet nobody is mentioning about it. DOTr is currently working with SMC on the express train spur as they are not in the plan for NSCR. They better do it fast as Changi airport in Clark is also courting these carriers to fly CRK instead.

On a lighter note, this should be fun to see.

[Solblanc]

Will an airline truly be encouraged to relocate their major operations, though? One would think that local airlines may just decide to give Bulacan their spillover traffic instead of giving up their NAIA slots.

[Anon]

So I read this article (https://business.inquirer.net/276716/smc-names-three-global-firms-to-design-build-p734-b-bulacan-airport), and only Changi seems to standout. Paris-CDG and Atlanta-Hartsfield doesn't really appeal to me imo. They could've requested Foster & Partners for the project, but I assume that might be too expensive.

It'll be interesting to see the final renders. I believe a HKG style terminal would be a great concept, but that's just me. I'm sure a lot of variables will be determined what the final design will be. Of course you have to separate the domestic and international area and if they plan to separate LCC ops.

[Arianespace]

It now depends on the persuasive power of RSA. If you think about it, PAL is part of the NAIA Consortium which intends to raise capacity 20 million more for another 15 years. It would get additional capacity in 3 years time in NAIA assuming construction starts next year. It has interest to stay in MNL. Not at other airport.

There is also this DOTR memo that would transform NAIA into a pure legacy airport similar to LHR, HND, and JFK in the future once a new Manila airport opens, and the LCC operators are made aware of this plan this early to make some arrangements. They will be eased out of NAIA eventually to make way for more legacy flights.

They already implemented Sangley for Turboprop and Genav traffic.

True enough, CEB is slowly building up Clark as one of its investor together with Scoot, while AirAsia is confirmed to be talking to SMC for minority stake in Bulacan.

But wait, there is more. Another Oz-based airline operating out of Singapore is also wanting a minority stake in Bulacan. Both are jockeying positions to be its anchor tenant. Only one will be selected. Their financial investments will go to Terminal infrastructure. So whoever wins already guarantee traffic for this airport. Mind you they are all looking at North America. Apparently, they have one word for it. Synergy.

[temp-idp5601]

By "legacy" you mean full service airlines, right?

[Arianespace]

Yes. I'm sorry our language is much influenced by US culture than what actually the world used.

[Evodesire]

Cebu Pacific is part of the NAIA Consortium via JG Summit but they are an LCC. If NAIA will be a full legacy airline airport, what's going to happen to 5J as part of the NAIA consortium?

[Arianespace]

Its not about the airline, more about its parent.

5J is not part of the consortium. JG Summit is.  CEB is just part of the latter. More like PAL is part of the LT Group and not AEDC.

Naia Consortium’s members include Ayala Corp. , Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Alliance Global Group Inc., Asia Emerging Dragon, Filinvest Development Corp., JG Summit Holdings Inc. and Metro Pacific Investments Corp.

These are all land developers. While some has interest in airlines, none has interest in airport, except for their consultant CAI.

In Clark, it is now envisioned to be an LCC airport. Nothing has change notwithstanding Vince declaration to the contrary. Otherwise, major developers are already lining up their bids there. But no. Bulacan however is envisioned to be a "full service airport" from the get go.  

It is just unfortunate that they cannot come out with a financial muscle to match SMC. So the next best thing is joined up in NAIA. Remember they even wanted more than what was required by DOTr, perhaps a coup de grace of SMC winning Bulacan.  But they failed there because there is already a plan. First part of that had just been enforced. That's why its important for SMC to get legacy contract otherwise they will turn up just the same as Clark was in 1992. Full of promises not one airline.

Like I said, SMC doesn't want Don Quixote out of their airport. If that fails, there is always Sangley.

[Evodesire]

So what is the news on the Super Consortium? Last thing we read was that they resubmitted their proposal but pattered after CRK. What is the likelihood that they will bag it and how true is it that one of RSA's requests is to close NAIA once NMIA opens?

[Arianespace]

As I was saying, all developers are eyeing NAIA because this is where the big money is. So that means GMR Megawide could stole it from them. And don't forget the challenger Incheon SMC which is related to your second question, True. RSA not only wanted to close NAIA down but operate it as well in the meantime. He wanted PAL to be in Bulacan. If he don't get its nod then he might challenge the consortium instead. I have spoken about this in the other thread a long time ago. You should find my explanation there helpful.

[Evodesire]

Arianespace wrote

As I was saying, all developers are eyeing NAIA because this is where the big money is. So that means GMR Megawide could stole it from them. And don't forget the challenger Incheon SMC which is related to your second question, True. RSA not only wanted to close NAIA down but operate it as well in the meantime. He wanted PAL to be in Bulacan. If he don't get its nod then he might challenge the consortium instead. I have spoken about this in the other thread a long time ago. You should find my explanation there helpful.

Link to that thread pls

[Arianespace]

You can start reading what another thread is talking about a year ago here.


Truly. What Solblanc wrote then is on the spot now.

Solblanc wrote

idp5601 wrote

So this basically means if Sangley were to be delevoped, it would either be through an ODA or be bid out?

What does this mean for Bulacan? Is it dead in the water as well?

Bulacan is a bit of a weird case. Basically, the government already told them that their project cannot have any support whatsoever. If it gets approved, it just means that RSA is allowed to build whatever he wants in that area. He can't force NAIA to close. He can't force a relocation of airlines. He can't ask the government to build trains or expressways to his airport.

Now, seeing what SMC is doing in Caticlan, do you think that, even with approval, he'll go on and build something knowing that he has to steal air traffic from both Manila and Clark?

To be fair, a Bulacan airport can attract foreign carriers that have been looking to start or expand NAIA service but have been shut out due to the lack of slots. Bulacan would be a magnet for EK A380s or for the likes of Air New Zealand, which is still trying to find good NAIA slots.

Bulacan is in theory possible, but it will only be as successful as how much cash SMC is willing to throw at it in the short-term. And they're also having problems with that, too.

[Arianespace]

Before anyone marvel where this airport is going to be constructed, its in Taliptip, and its going to be an island airport. I Kinda wonder where the flooding logic in Bulacan comes when its going to be an island, meaning surrounded with water.  Bulacan always had perennial flood problem because of its terrain, flood plains. Building an island does not change that fact.